What-if certainty 3/5 debate potential 3/5

Jaffe: Northvolt could have worked if investors forced focus on one factory

Sam Jaffe · What went wrong at Northvolt? · Dec 12, 2024 · at 30:59

Battery analyst Sam Jaffe evaluates why Northvolt collapsed and how investor pressure for rapid expansion undermined initial factory execution.

0:00 / 0:15exact quote · 15.7s
720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“And if their goal and focus and their investors had pushed them very hard to get that one factory to work right, do anything you can to get that one factory to work right, and then we'll figure out everything else later. I, you know, I think it could have worked.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Sam Jaffe

Opinion
The US-Japan critical minerals agreement was tailored to preserve Tesla's tax credits
“Essentially, my conspiracy theory, Is that essentially this was a bone that was thrown to Tesla. Because Tesla makes its battery cells in North America with Panasonic. It makes some of its materials in North America. The electrolyte is made here, the separator…”
Sam Jaffe Dec 7, 2023 ▶ 41:28 Update: What the new Treasury rules mean for EV supply chains
Assertion Supported
Jaffe: Chinese state industrial policy created CATL, now the world's top producer
“The emergence of CATL, which was essentially a company that was really invented in the back rooms of the industrial governmental complex in, in China about 12 years ago that, and it essentially just, you know, it followed the plan perfectly and is now the larg…”
Sam Jaffe Dec 12, 2024 ▶ 8:50 What went wrong at Northvolt?
Assertion Supported
Jaffe: Northvolt doomed itself by attempting six gigafactories simultaneously
“What they ended up trying to do was build, essentially build six gigafactories simultaneously, which is just an impossible task to handle. And I think that the, you know, that, that the concept of build, build, perfect, and then repeat was not applied. And the…”
Sam Jaffe Dec 12, 2024 ▶ 12:28 What went wrong at Northvolt?
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Jaffe: Northvolt's stranded factory will eventually produce batteries under new ownership
“But that factory, I believe strongly, is going to be making batteries. Somebody else is going to own it, and they are going to be making batteries.”
Sam Jaffe Dec 12, 2024 ▶ 36:52 What went wrong at Northvolt?
Prediction Didn’t hold up
US domestic battery manufacturing will reach 200 GWh by 2025
“And at that point, we're going to have the LG GM Ultium joint venture making over a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries throughout this country. LG Stellantis will be making 35 gigawatt hours. Stellantis Samsung STI will be making another 30. And then Ford wil…”
Sam Jaffe Dec 7, 2023 ▶ 32:38 Update: What the new Treasury rules mean for EV supply chains
Assertion Supported
Jaffe: Treasury Classifies Constituent Materials as Minerals Subject to 50% Rule
“So I think what essentially what the guidance said was constituent materials, which is going to be any of these precursor steps up to the battery component itself, essentially falls under strategic minerals. As in the strategic minerals qualification. Now they…”
Sam Jaffe Apr 6, 2023 ▶ 23:50 What the new Treasury rules mean for EV supply chains
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 200 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.