Battery analyst Sam Jaffe explains the state-directed rise of Chinese battery manufacturing and CATL to global market dominance.
Opinion
The US-Japan critical minerals agreement was tailored to preserve Tesla's tax credits
“Essentially, my conspiracy theory, Is that essentially this was a bone that was thrown to Tesla. Because Tesla makes its battery cells in North America with Panasonic. It makes some of its materials in North America. The electrolyte is made here, the separator…”
Assertion Supported
Jaffe: Northvolt doomed itself by attempting six gigafactories simultaneously
“What they ended up trying to do was build, essentially build six gigafactories simultaneously, which is just an impossible task to handle. And I think that the, you know, that, that the concept of build, build, perfect, and then repeat was not applied. And the…”
What-if
Jaffe: Northvolt could have worked if investors forced focus on one factory
“And if their goal and focus and their investors had pushed them very hard to get that one factory to work right, do anything you can to get that one factory to work right, and then we'll figure out everything else later. I, you know, I think it could have work…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Jaffe: Northvolt's stranded factory will eventually produce batteries under new ownership
“But that factory, I believe strongly, is going to be making batteries. Somebody else is going to own it, and they are going to be making batteries.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
US domestic battery manufacturing will reach 200 GWh by 2025
“And at that point, we're going to have the LG GM Ultium joint venture making over a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries throughout this country. LG Stellantis will be making 35 gigawatt hours. Stellantis Samsung STI will be making another 30. And then Ford wil…”
Assertion Supported
Jaffe: Treasury Classifies Constituent Materials as Minerals Subject to 50% Rule
“So I think what essentially what the guidance said was constituent materials, which is going to be any of these precursor steps up to the battery component itself, essentially falls under strategic minerals. As in the strategic minerals qualification. Now they…”