The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 6 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Jenkins: Europe can viably eliminate 100% of Russian gas by winter 2022
“Europe's current plan is to cut natural gas use by about two thirds before this winter.
Can they actually go a hundred percent?
Can they cut if they needed to, or if they needed to make a credible threat on the global stage to Putin that we will cut our gas us…”
Jenkins: IRA Will Cut U.S. Emissions by One Gigaton in 2030
“So our top line finding from the repeat project analysis of the bill is that it will cut annual U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 by an additional one, roughly one billion metric tons below the current policy baseline. So an additional billion tons of emis…”
Jenkins: The IRA will not materially boost near-term US EV sales
“The total volume of credit of a vehicle sold is not really going to be affected by whether or not they can claim this credit in the short term. So we just assumed the trajectory in our modeling follows Bloomberg's Bloomberg New Energy Finance's trajectory for …”
Jenkins: Europe can normalize energy conditions by 2025 with lower gas use
“And so that, you know, by 20, 25 or 20, 26, you know, in the sort of three to four year timeframe, it should be possible to get back to sort of typical European, you know, conditions, albeit with dramatically lower oil and gas consumption, particularly gas con…”
Jenkins: IRA Will Drive $200B+ Investment Into Energy Communities by 2030
“Our estimates are that that provision and a few others sprinkled throughout the bill that will help drive investment into energy communities will support several hundred billion dollars, probably at least two hundred billion dollars of investment in energy com…”
Jenkins: IRA will redirect EV supply chain capital to North America
“What this bill is going to do is make sure a vast majority of that investment is going to go into the United States, North America, and other free trade agreement countries. And so I think we're going to see a big reorientation of the supply chain”
Jenkins: CO2 Storage Basin Capacity Will Be Rate-Limiting Factor for CCS
“So what that says to me is that we don't know exactly who's going to get access first and lock up that injection capacity, but the development of CO two injection and storage basins will be a rate limiting factor here.”
Jenkins: US hydrogen demand will explode after 2030, not before
“So that makes hydrogen you know, in our modeling, there's not a lot of demand for it in the 20, 20 to 20, 30 period, but after 2030, it explodes. It takes off for liquid fuels and for some industrial processes.”
Jenkins: Flexible industrial power consumers could secure one-cent-per-kWh contracts under IRA
“And so, you know, you could probably get one cent a kilowatt hour contracts, right, with that kind of environment. And as long as you don't need it 24 seven, right, as long as you're okay using it intermittently.”
Jenkins: IRA will drive roughly 29% US electricity demand growth over decade
“So electricity demand grows by about 29%, so just shy of 30% over the next decade in our modeling driven primarily by electrification of vehicles, and then the secondary effect from building electrification.”
Jenkins: Reducing gas usage could decouple European power and gas prices
“I do think longer term, you're right, it would, could split that link if, you know, if basically natural gas plays a very small role in, in Europe's energy mix in another five years that'll help drive a wedge between the prices in the power sector and the gas …”