why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Cohen: No regular driverless highway trucking service operates today
“There's not a regular driverless service for trucking on highway that exists today. And that's 10 years after we've really put serious effort into the space.”
Insight
Cohen: Highway stops for confused autonomous trucks are highly dangerous
“When, in San Francisco, when a passenger car stops, you know, people go around and they honk, they call they call annoyed their local politicians, whatever, but mostly it's a safe situation. You don't have that advantage on a highway. So, so, so stopping a tru…”
Disclosure
Humble Robotics adopts a camera-first architecture for autonomous trucks
“Today, for me, at Humble, we flip that, and we do a lot more on vision algorithms. We're camera first, and that's because of just the evolution of this technology.”
Opinion
Cohen: Level 4 autonomous trucks currently require cameras, LiDAR, and radar
“From my perspective, for a vehicle, a truck, for example, you put on the road, you would want it to have camera, lidar, and radar to do a level four being, you know, driverless, to do a level four truck today.”
Insight
Cohen: Hub-to-hub autonomous freight faces economic hurdles from depot friction
“The challenge in that is, today, you don't have those depots, and somebody has to build those depots, and those depots are friction. Like, who is moving the freight to that depot And why do they want to move into that depot, as opposed to just what they do tod…”
Insight
Cohen: Autonomous freight requires electric drivetrains to enable automated refueling
“If you were going to have fully hands-off freight, you would want it to be electric to charge, to handle the charging in an automated way. It's really hard to do that with diesel.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cohen: Early autonomous trucking rollouts will concentrate on specific segments in Texas
“I don't think you'll see generalized solutions where there's just like autonomous trucks zigzagging like everywhere for a while, but
I think what you'll see is some specific segments, mostly in Texas, where you'll see occasional autonomous trucks and some sc…”
Insight
Cohen: Eliminating truck cabs removes significant cost and weight to improve economics
“If you remove a cab, you've taken out some significant costs from the vehicle. You've also taken out significant weight from the vehicle. And that allows us to kind of rethink the unit economics a little bit.”
Assertion Supported
Cohen: Electric trucks cost up to $500k versus $150k-$250k for diesel
“They've been, the electric trucks themselves have been fairly expensive in some cases, four or 500,000 dollars. A truck today, a tractor today is Somewhere between one 52 50 depending on the on, on what you're buying.”
Assertion Supported
Cohen: Driver wages are roughly $1.10 of $2.40 per-mile trucking costs
“Trucking costs in 26 or 25 looked at me about two dollars and 30, 40 cents a mile, at least for the long haul side.
And I think the driver wages are about a dollar ton of that per mile.”
Assertion Supported
Eyal Cohen: California recently legalized driverless truck testing under specific conditions
“In California a week ago, you were, you would not have been legally permitted to do a driverless truck. And today you are. So there was some legislation that, or some new rulemaking there that, that allows for it with certain conditions.”