why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Delta: European SAF mandate is ahead of supply and unfriendly to consumers
“Sometimes a mandate, and in this case, this is our position, that, you know, it's just a couple years ahead of where the supply is, and so it's forcing it into the market at a price point that is not We don't think it's consumer friendly.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
DeLuca: Models suggest power-to-liquid fuel costs could undercut conventional jet fuel
“There's a lot of models that suggest that power to liquid, the cost structure should be lower than conventional jet fuel and should sit and be very stable because you're truly using these unlimited resources.”
Assertion Supported
Delta buys 4B gallons of fuel yearly, securing only 3.5M of SAF
“Delta as a company procures four billion gallons of jet fuel every year. Last year we used roughly three and a half million gallons of SAF, and that's not for wanting more. That's all we could get our hands on.”
Opinion
Delta CSO: Aviation must scale SAF faster than wind or solar did
“We've got to outpace Some of those other emergent industries in terms of we don't have decades to get this right. It needs to scale sooner rather than later.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
DeLuca: Full SAF scalability requires power-to-liquid synthetic fuels
“If you really look at full scalability for that four billion gallons of jet fuel, we have to look even further into the future into power to liquid or synthetic fuels, which really need that access to renewable energy. To essentially, you know, cut the water i…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Buyers exist for Scope 3 emissions of every drop of Delta's SAF
“We've got a buyer for the scope three emissions for every single drop that we have, and there's way more demand for that than we can even get our hands on”
Insight
DeLuca: Bilateral airline contracts failed to finance SAF projects
“You had an airline and a startup, and that wasn't working. They weren't getting financing. We can send all the demand signals we want, but still, you know, the way that, you know, essentially the Contracts were written that SAF supplier just wasn't getting the…”
Assertion Supported
DeLuca: HEFA feedstocks cannot scale to Delta's 4B gallon fuel demand
“So all those feedstocks I mentioned, I mean, there's a limitation. They can't be scaled to the four billion gallons of jet fuel that Delta uses, let alone what the industry uses.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
DeLuca: Scaling Alcohol-to-Jet and PtL Will Lower SAF Green Premiums
“Hefa, Hefa has a hard time of bringing that green premium down dramatically because you're kind of constrained by the used cooking oil constraint. And so, you know, there isn't much more to walk down, but as you get into alcohol to jet and PTL, scalability wil…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
The 50% SAF blend limit won't constrain airports for a decade
“So the industry is certainly looking at that, but I think we're probably at least a decade away from having that be a real issue in any single location.”
Disclosure
DeLuca: Delta Is Pushing for Centralized SAF Blending Hubs in Key Markets
“And so we are really pushing to see blending hubs in some key markets, such as Minnesota. So that we've got just one place where all staff producers are able to blend in their staff, and then all airlines will be able to access.”
Assertion Supported
DeLuca: SAF policy incentives require at least a 50% lifecycle emissions reduction
“So one, in terms of the way incentives are written, you have to hit a 50% threshold. So it's not just a little bit. It's got to hit that 50% threshold.”
Disclosure
Delta Plans for 15M+ Gallons of SAF in California Over Two Years
“We are actively planning for fifteen million gallons plus in California over the next two years, and the reason I'm starting with California is just mentioning that's where the incentives are to date.”
Assertion Supported
DeLuca: SAF Has a 50% Maximum Blend Limit Today
“The first is the fact that there is a maximum blend limit of 50% today, and that's just because the chemistry of SAF is slightly different than conventional jet fuel, and if you've got it at a hundred percent, there are some things in the infrastructure themse…”