The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,090 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 24 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Frader-Thompson: Regulators rely on one-size-fits-all M&V for flexible resources
“What we don't have in the industry right now is sort of regulatory recognition of those different things. We tend to have kind of a one-size-fits-all M&V approach.”
Kann: Enhanced geothermal systems are realistically limited to the US West
“For enhanced geothermal systems, EGS, those rules are relaxed a bit, but realistically, we're still talking about a swath of the West in the United States, for example.”
Araque: Existing geothermal regions reach 800°F closer to 3 miles deep
“Everywhere where you have geothermal today is very likely one of those places where you'll find the 800 degrees Fahrenheit at three miles, closer to three miles than closer to 12 miles.”
Araque: Shallow super-hot geothermal requires only incremental oil-and-gas hardware evolution
“So talking about the shallow ones, it's incremental improvements. There's a lot of precedence already in oil and gas. There's something in oil and gas called SAGD, steam-assisted gravity drainage, which injects steams, steam at temperatures up to 600 degrees F…”
Araque: Over 50 super-hot geothermal wells have been drilled worldwide
“And just like that location, I can point to more than 50 wells drilling the world by people looking for super hot hydrothermal systems that are going to be in the three to four mile range and are going to be in the 600 to 800 degrees Fahrenheit. Some of them a…”
Baglino: Silicon carbide inverters saved Tesla $400 to $500 in battery costs
“You know, while I was at Tesla, we started using silicon carbide to make drive inverters in cars because the incremental cost of the more expensive transistor was more than outweighed by the savings in battery because the drive inverter could be so much more e…”
Baglino: Silicon carbide in Tesla inverters saved three miles of battery
“So silicon carbide went there, and then silicon carbide went into the drive inverter to make the drive inverter about one percent more efficient, which you're like, oh, that doesn't seem like a lot, but when you think about, you size the battery to give you, l…”
Baglino: Step-up transformer demand has surged over 250% since 2019
“In fact, I have some statistics here. You know, power transformers, these are generator transformers. Demand is up is over double since 2019. For generation step-up transformers it's up over 250%. Distribution transformers up over a hundred percent.”
Baglino: Utility-scale solar plant transformers fail at about 1.4% per year
“Transformers are not really designed to run at their rated power, you know, as long as they do in these Desert power plants, you know, where they're, first of all, very hot, because they're sitting in the sun, and second of all, because they're running at name…”
Siegel: PJM capacity prices surged from $30 to over $300 per megawatt-day
“When we rewind back just a couple of years, we had capacity clears that were going off between 30 and 50 dollars per megawatt day, and that compares to a little bit over 300 dollars a megawatt day in the more recent clears and subject to the cap in the capacit…”
Siegel: PJM demand response participation stayed flat despite surging capacity prices
“So if you look at demand response and what's happened to demand response over the last several auctions we haven't had much more demand response participation in spite of the fact that the price signal has gone from virtually no payment for capacity to a very …”
Huff: NRC staffing has declined under the current administration
“Furthermore, they have fewer staff than they did before this administration began, and so the staffing issue certainly is one to keep in mind.”
Kann: Base Power completed a billion-dollar fundraise for residential batteries
“You may remember I had Zach Dell, the founder of Base, on the pod a few months ago, just right in the wake of their billion-dollar fundraise to go deploy residential batteries throughout the country.”
McGinnis: Standard 120V and 240V outlets are pre-existing bi-directional grid interconnections
“The 120 volts or the 240 volt outlet is a pre-existing bi-directional interconnection point on the grid that you can actually push power into, and it's safe to do so at the circuit level.”
McGinnis: State Plug-In DER Legislation Typically Caps Grid Export at 1.2 kW
“A lot of these rules that are being introduced in past are focusing on anything up to typically, 1.2 kilowatts is, You can export that amount from a meter from a home, and it's really even narrowly focused on consumer applications.”
McGinnis: Germany adopted 4M balcony solar units exceeding 1GW in four years
“And really remarkable there is in the last four years or so they've seen four million of these systems adopted. So four million in homes or apartments, wherever you think about it. Whereas that's about the same size as the traditional single-family installs, w…”
McGinnis: Commercial plug-in DER install costs are under 10% of system costs
“And what we've seen is in the commercial application installed costs of like less than 10% of system costs and it's closer to zero because all those soft costs are gone.”
Nat Bullard: IEA projects 5M barrels per day global oil oversupply
“The IEA estimate for the beginning of the year is about five million barrels per day of supply in excess of demand. That is a lot. That's, Also about five percent oversupply based on based on the current demand of around a hundred and a little bit million barr…”
US residential solar costs are three times higher than Australia or Germany
“Yeah, you were, congratulations at costing thrice what it costs in Australia or Germany, neither of which are particularly low-cost markets for anything.”
Kann: Australia installed 40,000 residential battery systems monthly in late 2025
“Over the course of the past, what is it, five months, or July through November, 25, Australia was installing 40,000 residential storage systems per month.”
Nat Bullard: Transformer prices keep rising despite domestic manufacturing push
“If anything, they're still ticking slightly upward. And as much as there's energy and attention and noise being paid to, we need to build stuff here, we're not.”
Kann: Gas turbine manufacturing is more oligopolistic than electrical transformers
“Gas turbine manufacturing is even more capital intensive. It's currently more of an oligopoly than transformers are.”
Bullard: BYD grew from 0.1% to Singapore's top auto seller in four years
“Watching in my hometown, in Singapore, where, ah, BYD had .one percent market share in December, 21, and is now by far the biggest auto seller in the country in four years.”
Bullard: China electric commercial truck sales grew from 3,000 to 81,500 in H1 2025
“China had three A thousand electric, medium, and heavy-duty truck sales in the year, twenty-twenty. It had 81 and a half thousand in the first half of last year.”
Bullard: Electric passenger cars account for well over 50% of China sales
“Electric, electric car sales as a share in China is well north of 50% at this point.”
Burton: Data centers drove ratepayer cost hikes and a moratorium in Ireland
“We've seen this in places like Ireland where there's a moratorium now on data centers. Energy prices have gone up so much. Rate payers have been forced to bear those extra costs.”
Burton: Foreign businesses are pausing US clean energy investments
“What we're seeing on, on our side is foreign businesses that were Investing in the U.S., buying projects, buying companies, operating companies, and establishing a U.S. Presence are putting those on hold, and they're pulling out.”
Khan: China is significantly more electrified than the US in final energy share
“China is significantly more electrified, at least as measured by the share of final energy that comes from electricity than the United States. Like, substantially more so.”
Bullard: China's domestic coal reserves will last for centuries
“It does import coal for kind of energy balance reasons, but it has an absolutely enormous indigenous coal supply that will last for centuries, right?”
Bullard: Electricity spending has stayed range-bound between 3% and 4% of GDP
“Electricity, meanwhile, is essentially completely range-bound. The highest it's ever gotten is, like, close to four percent, and the lowest it's ever gotten is three percent.”
Bullard: Global gas turbine production capacity caps at 60 gigawatts annually
“The current production limit, and as you know, there's not that many companies that make gas turbines, is somewhere in the range of about 60 gigawatts a year, and we're likely, last year, to be past that by about 20 gigawatts, and to be past that by about 30 g…”
Kann: 2028 gas turbine orders exceed 100 GW against 60 GW capacity
“The order book for twenty-twenty-eight today is over a hundred gigawatts relative to about 60 gigawatts of production capacity”
Bullard: No RICE power installations are currently planned for the 2030s
“The delivery pipeline for those only runs out a couple of years. Like, we don't see anybody planning rice turbines or rice installations in the 20 thirties yet.”
Bullard: Tech CapEx at roughly 2% of GDP exceeds historic megaprojects
“Things like the Manhattan project, electricity, the Apollo project, these are like less than or barely above one half a percent of U.S. GDP at their peak. Even the Apollo project, even the interstate highway project is like six 10th of a percent. Building out …”
Kann: ERCOT large load interconnection queue reached 226 GW by November 2025
“The pipeline of large load interconnection requests in ERCOT in Texas was, what, 40, forty-ish, 42 gigawatts as of January of twenty-twenty-four. So two years ago, it went from forty-ish, 42 gigawatts to 226 gigawatts as of November of 25”
Effectively 100% of global AI compute currently occurs in centralized cloud
“It's an energy question because the answer today is effectively a hundred percent in that first category, cloud.”
Modon: Most projects reach final investment decision with 30% engineering complete
“In the vast majority of projects, when you go to final investment decision and you have plus or -10% estimates, you're only maybe 30% of the way through your engineering. 70%, you still have to go do.”
Modon: Unlimited Industries can collapse data center design phases
“Instead of the design portion taking, call it six to nine months of your critical path. We can massively collapse that period of time. And that's really important for these data center projects to kind of accelerate how quickly we can actually build them.”
Gramlich: Only 55 miles of high-voltage transmission were built in 2023
“There were only 55 miles of new High voltage transmission lines in twenty-twenty-three, which is down, you know, a trickle from the 4000 you know, that had been built 10 years prior”
Gramlich: Energy Secretary Wright submitted a grid access rulemaking to FERC
“The Secretary of Energy, Secretary Wright, wrote this letter to FERC saying, you know, here's a rulemaking I'm putting before you, On access to the grid.”
Gramlich: Four US grid regions are planning 765 kV lines
“You've got seven 65 KV AC plans. We mentioned SPP, but MISO in the more of the, like, the Great Lakes part of the Midwest and is looking at seven 65 PJM as well, and they just came out with a new very much more ambitious plan than we've seen from them. In the …”
Gramlich: CAISO is the only US grid operator expanding transmission nonstop
“California ISO has continued. They've been cranking along quietly for many years. Pretty much they're the only ones who have kind of gone nonstop on transmission.”
Gramlich: US lacks planning system for inter-regional transmission lines
“We don't really have a system in place to build inter-regional transmission from region to region, MISO to SPP, or SPP to the interior west, or interior west to the coast, all of these neighboring regions, there's a massive untapped value of transmission there…”
Black: New Mexico hosts the only US uranium enrichment plant
“We have the only uranium enrichment plant in the United States today is in New Mexico.”
Black: New Mexico operates the most productive geothermal well in the US
“We have the most productive geothermal well now operating in the US happening in New Mexico.”
Black: New Mexico passed microgrid legislation for 20MW+ energy users
“We also passed a microgrid bill, That allows users of over 20 megawatts, so I think large advanced manufacturing or hyperscalers to build microgrids very quickly in the state”
Black: New Mexico allocated $2B to partner with top deep tech VCs
“What they've done is they've taken about two billion of that and put it into a venture fund that is working with the 25 to 30 largest deep tech venture funds in the world.”
Black: New Mexico subsidizes up to 90% of new hire wages
“We have a high-wage jobs tax credit that's refundable at eight and a half percent of your employees' wages for four years. We're going to pay between 50 and 90% of your employees' wages for the first six months that are in New Mexico on new hires, depending on…”