why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
What-if
Jaffe: Northvolt could have worked if investors forced focus on one factory
“And if their goal and focus and their investors had pushed them very hard to get that one factory to work right, do anything you can to get that one factory to work right, and then we'll figure out everything else later. I, you know, I think it could have work…”
Assertion Supported
Jaffe: Northvolt doomed itself by attempting six gigafactories simultaneously
“What they ended up trying to do was build, essentially build six gigafactories simultaneously, which is just an impossible task to handle. And I think that the, you know, that, that the concept of build, build, perfect, and then repeat was not applied. And the…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Jaffe: Northvolt's stranded factory will eventually produce batteries under new ownership
“But that factory, I believe strongly, is going to be making batteries. Somebody else is going to own it, and they are going to be making batteries.”
Assertion Supported
Frith: Northvolt's yield struggles inflated costs and lost BMW's contract
“Northvolt started manufacturing cells on its plant around the end of twenty-twenty-two, I believe. So, kind of, we're coming up to two years now. And if the, you know, media reports are to be believed, they're still having a huge issue with yields. They can't …”
Opinion
Jaffe: Window is closing for new battery startups to rival majors
“There are a handful of new battery companies like Northvolt in Europe and that are appearing, but this is really the last chance for that, for a new, a brand new startup battery company to be able to compete with the majors.”
Assertion Supported
Khan: BMW canceled a $2 billion Northvolt order over quality issues
“What seemed to, you know, make the slope of the downturn for the company accelerate a lot was BMW canceling this big two billion dollar order because of quality issues as far as I understand it.”
Assertion Supported
Jaffe: Few non-Chinese companies provide end-to-end equipment across 18 battery stages
“There's essentially 18 stages that you're each with its own different types of equipment. And there's very few companies that make every one of those pieces of equipment. And especially there's very few Chinese, non-Chinese companies that, that have That, that…”
Assertion Supported
Freyr, Northvolt, and Volkswagen redirected European battery plant developments to the US
“We've actually seen a shift, in some cases, a shift of battery plants that were planned for Europe where they said, we're gonna stop developing this and instead turn to building a plant in the U.S., Fryer did that, Northvolt did that, and a couple others, and …”
Assertion Supported
Jaffe: Freyr, Northvolt, and Volkswagen shifted European plant plans to US
“We've actually seen a shift, in some cases, a shift of battery plants that were planned for Europe where they said, we're gonna stop developing this and instead turn to building a plant in the U.S., Fryer did that, Northvolt did that, and a couple others have,…”
Assertion Supported
Jaffe: Northvolt secured around $14 billion in capital, debt, and subsidies
“It's essentially about fourteen billion dollars in total, including money, actual capital raised essentially people saying we will contribute this amount in the future to future raises and tax credits, which were a large part of that fourteen billion.”
Assertion Supported
Kann: Galp and Northvolt canceled their joint Portuguese lithium refinery
“Galp, who's a Portuguese energy company, was going to build a lithium refinery in Portugal, I believe, with Northvolt, which they just canceled.”