Sam Jaffe
VP of Business Development, Mana Battery · 5 appearances on the record.
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He founded Cairn Energy Research Advisors in 2015 to provide market research on lithium-ion batteries and supply chains, which was acquired by E Source in 2021. Previously, he worked as a journalist writing for outlets including The Wall Street Journal, BusinessWeek, and Scientific American.
70statements → 51claims → 35claims resolved → 83%fully supported → 3.74/5average certainty → 2.09/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated →
29 supported 2 partly supported 4 contradicted 6 not yet assessed 10 not checkable as stated how the 51 claims stand · each chip opens the sources
24 predictions · 27 assertions · 8 opinions · 9 insights · 1 disclosure · 1 what if · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 51 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 35 are resolved, 6 are not yet assessed, and 10 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.
The record, in short
What the tape says about how Sam argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.
Their most notable supported claim
Jaffe: Chinese state industrial policy created CATL, now the world's top producer
“The emergence of CATL, which was essentially a company that was really invented in the back rooms of the industrial governmental complex in, in China about 12 years ago that, and it essentially just, you know, it followed the plan perfectly and is now the larg…”
Their most notable contradicted claim
US domestic battery manufacturing will reach 200 GWh by 2025
“And at that point, we're going to have the LG GM Ultium joint venture making over a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries throughout this country. LG Stellantis will be making 35 gigawatt hours. Stellantis Samsung STI will be making another 30. And then Ford wil…”
Expressed certainty vs assessment result
weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet
How they sound: not measured why? →
We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Sam Jaffe on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.
Everything Sam Jaffe said on Catalyst that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →
Jaffe: US battery cells gain 30% to 40% advantage over Chinese cells
“So you're essentially talking about somewhere around 30 to 40% price advantage, or advantage that this, a U.S.-made cell gets over a Chinese cell.”
Jaffe: US Energy Storage Capacity Will Double in 2023 Alone
“Essentially what we're expecting to see next year now is a doubling of the entire installed capacity
Of US energy storage in twenty-twenty-three alone. In other words, everything that's been built and installed in the US is about to double in what's installed …”
Jaffe: Over 600 GWh of battery manufacturing will onshore in North America
“We expect over 600 gigawatt hours worth of battery manufacturing to onshore in North America Over the next decade.”
Jaffe: North America will import many stationary storage batteries from China
“We're gonna be importing a lot of batteries from China for stationary storage applications.”
Jaffe: IRA tax credit rules definitely hurt short-term EV adoption
“Short-term, it definitely hurts EV adoption. It's a net negative because nobody qualifies for it.”
Jaffe: Treating battery cells as outsourced commodities was a critical OEM mistake
“And that's what we've learned in the last 10 years of the development of the electric vehicle, is that the car is the battery. And it's not just the battery pack. The car is the battery cell. The car is the battery chemistry. And for the car company to just sl…”
Jaffe: The real prize of solid-state batteries is enabling lithium metal anodes
“The real prize with solid state is getting to a lithium metal batteries... You get the most energy dense possible anode you could possibly get With a lithium metal anode.”
Jaffe: Fast charging is a nice-to-have rather than essential for EV owners
“Fast charging is something that a new is going to appeal to a new buyer that's never owned an electric vehicle before, but once they get used to it, they realize this is a nice to have, not a requirement.”
Jaffe: Second-life EV batteries struggle economically against sub-$100/kWh new cells
“A million mile car brings up the possibility of repurposing that battery pack once the car no longer functions, repurposing that battery pack for stationary storage. But I'm very skeptical about that proposition. You, at that point, you've got an old device th…”
Jaffe: Seven to eight companies produce 85% of global batteries
“What's really happening is we're moving more and more towards consolidation, and we're now, we now have a handful of seven or eight large companies that produce 85% of the batteries that are being made. And that trend is only increasing, not decreasing.”
Jaffe: Northvolt secured around $14 billion in capital, debt, and subsidies
“It's essentially about fourteen billion dollars in total, including money, actual capital raised essentially people saying we will contribute this amount in the future to future raises and tax credits, which were a large part of that fourteen billion.”
Jaffe: Tesla Gigafactory discarded nearly half of its first-year battery cells
“The most famous, of course, is the first Tesla Gigafactory, which apparently they had close to half of their cells that they produced in the first year of that factory's production had to be discarded because they weren't getting the quality right.”
Jaffe: Embedded equipment suppliers dictate battery factory success for years
“The equipment suppliers are embedded in that factory for between one and two years, and the factory owner is married to those people. They become the most critical people in the success of the company. And if you're not paying a hundred, just like in marriage,…”
A de minimis loophole allows low-value Chinese battery materials until 2026
“There is a significant loophole, which is a de minimis ruling, which essentially says if there's a small amount of material come, that, that does get its way into, from China then that will, and specifically of materials that don't have high value, and that's …”
New non-Chinese graphite facilities could produce significant volume by 2026
“I mean, there are graphite facilities being built today that should happen very relatively quickly and have a chance to be producing significant amounts of graphite in twenty-twenty-six.”
Australia, South Korea, and Chile are the biggest international IRA beneficiaries
“I think that the biggest winners, though, of the other countries that are involved, Australia and Korea and Chile are the, are by far the biggest winners. They all have free trade agreements with the U.S. And are going to come out looking very good from this.”
Treasury classifies battery constituent precursor materials under strategic minerals rules
“What essentially what the guidance said was constituent materials, which is going to be any of these precursor steps up to the battery component itself, essentially falls under strategic minerals. As in the strategic minerals qualification. Now they added this…”
Jaffe predicts another big battery investment jump in next six months
“And I still think there, there's going to be another big jump in activity over the next six months with this guidance.”
Jaffe: Australia, Korea, and Chile are biggest international IRA winners
“I think that the biggest winners, though, of the other countries that are involved, Australia and Korea and Chile are the, are by far the biggest winners. They all have free trade agreements with the U.S. And are going to come out looking very good from this.”
Jaffe: Australian Spodumene Lithium Is Processed Outside Free Trade Partner Nations
“In the case of Australia, they dig up the rock called spodumene, and then they ship it to China to be processed into lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate, and that processing part of the supply chain is actually done outside of a free trade partner country.”
Jaffe: Most EVs Sold Through Early 2025 Will Remain Luxury Vehicles
“Over the next 12 to 24 months, we're still going to be living in a world where most electric vehicles sold are luxury or near luxury vehicles.”
Jaffe: Battery pack manufacturing will naturally co-locate with module production
“Once, if you've made the module here, you're going to make the pack here. You're not going to ship it to another continent to make the pack, and then ship it back here to put in the car.”
Appearances (5)
| Episode | Date | Speaking time |
|---|---|---|
| What went wrong at Northvolt? | Dec 12, 2024 | 18m |
| Update: What the new Treasury rules mean for EV supply chains | Dec 7, 2023 | 24m |
| What the new Treasury rules mean for EV supply chains | Apr 6, 2023 | 18m |
| Is the Inflation Reduction Act a win for EVs and batteries? | Sep 29, 2022 | 23m |
| Seeking the holy grail of batteries | Jul 21, 2022 | 31m |