The Calls
Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
Everyone Andy Lubershane (10)Shayle Kann (9)Sam Jaffe (6)Jesse Jenkins (6)Michael Dunne (4)Kurt Kelty (4)Jeff Waters (4)Varun Sivaram (3)Tim Hade (3)Richard Wang (3)Matthew Sachs (3)Julian Dumoulin-Smith (3)
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The record (8) every resolved claim →
Jaffe: Battery industry will nearly double every year for 5–6 years
“The industry is literally increasing by almost doubling every year. And we'll continue to do that for the next five or six years and doubling off of a huge base now.”
US domestic battery manufacturing will reach 200 GWh by 2025
“And at that point, we're going to have the LG GM Ultium joint venture making over a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries throughout this country. LG Stellantis will be making 35 gigawatt hours. Stellantis Samsung STI will be making another 30. And then Ford wil…”
US battery manufacturing will reach roughly 200 gigawatt-hours by 2025
“And at that point, we're going to have the LG GM Ultium joint venture making over a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries throughout this country. LG Stellantis will be making 35 gigawatt hours. Stellantis Samsung STI will be making another 30. And then Ford wil…”
Jaffe: Most EVs Sold Through Early 2025 Will Remain Luxury Vehicles
“Over the next 12 to 24 months, we're still going to be living in a world where most electric vehicles sold are luxury or near luxury vehicles.”
Jaffe: EVs will hit about 6% of new US sales by 2024
“We think that we're going to get to about six percent by 2024, six percent of new cars sold will be EVs.”
Jaffe: California and Texas to Capture Majority of New US Storage
“And of course, California and Texas are getting the lion's share of these, of what's going to be installed over the next two years.”
Jaffe: US Energy Storage Capacity Will Double in 2023 Alone
“Essentially what we're expecting to see next year now is a doubling of the entire installed capacity
Of US energy storage in twenty-twenty-three alone. In other words, everything that's been built and installed in the US is about to double in what's installed …”