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May 4, 2023 · 41m · catalyst

Understanding the transmission bottleneck

Rob Gramlich · 23m spoken Shayle Kann · 12m spoken Ad Narrator (Bloom Energy & Engie) · 2m spoken Energy Hub · 28s spoken
0:00 / 0:00

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In this episode of Catalyst, host Shayle Kann and Grid Strategies president Rob Gramlich examine why electricity transmission is the primary bottleneck for US decarbonization. They explore historical grid development, escalating congestion costs, interconnection queue dysfunction, and the planning and regulatory reforms needed to modernize the power sector.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Shayle holds 31.5% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Shayle as informed peer 5.6 Guest teaching 3.2 Guest disagreement 1.2 Shayle pushing back 1.8
05100:0015:0030:003:39–9:27 · Shayle as informed peer 5/10 A Fifty-Year History of American Transmission Development Shayle Kann prompts a historical walkthrough of US transmission buildout and synthesizes the contrast between earlier stagnant demand and the 2008-2013 renewables buildout. Rob Gramlich walks through the 50-year arc from 1970s coal/hydro interties through post-restructuring congestion to recent stagnancy in a collaborative, informative tone.9:27–17:00 · Shayle as informed peer 6/10 Analyzing Transmission Congestion and Grid-Enhancing Technologies Shayle lays out a structured three-pillar framework (congestion, interconnection, expansion) and probes alternative mitigations like storage-as-transmission. Rob details the steep rise in congestion costs and explains the utility rate-base disincentives holding back grid-enhancing technologies.17:03–28:33 · Shayle as informed peer 6/10 Midroll Sponsor Messages: Bloom Energy and Engie Shayle breaks down the interconnection queue backlog and probes whether developers are flooding queues with speculative fluff. Rob defends developers navigating an unworkable serial study process and explains how individual network upgrade charges trigger restudy cascades across the country.28:33–34:26 · Shayle as informed peer 5/10 Overcoming the "Three Ps": Planning, Permitting, and Paying Rob describes the three Ps of transmission barriers (planning, permitting, paying) using historical successes in ERCOT and MISO. Shayle interrupts to clarify the CREZ acronym and challenges Rob on how fatal local opposition can be for interstate lines like Clean Line.34:27–40:46 · Shayle as informed peer 6/10 Transmission Reform Outlook and Federal Climate Target Realities Shayle asks whether the transmission crisis will reach a breaking point that forces federal reform, citing Jesse Jenkins' Repeat Project modeling on solar buildout rates. Rob agrees and highlights that up to 80% of IRA emissions gains could be lost without grid expansion.3:39–9:27 · Guest teaching 4/10 A Fifty-Year History of American Transmission Development Shayle Kann prompts a historical walkthrough of US transmission buildout and synthesizes the contrast between earlier stagnant demand and the 2008-2013 renewables buildout. Rob Gramlich walks through the 50-year arc from 1970s coal/hydro interties through post-restructuring congestion to recent stagnancy in a collaborative, informative tone.9:27–17:00 · Guest teaching 3/10 Analyzing Transmission Congestion and Grid-Enhancing Technologies Shayle lays out a structured three-pillar framework (congestion, interconnection, expansion) and probes alternative mitigations like storage-as-transmission. Rob details the steep rise in congestion costs and explains the utility rate-base disincentives holding back grid-enhancing technologies.17:03–28:33 · Guest teaching 4/10 Midroll Sponsor Messages: Bloom Energy and Engie Shayle breaks down the interconnection queue backlog and probes whether developers are flooding queues with speculative fluff. Rob defends developers navigating an unworkable serial study process and explains how individual network upgrade charges trigger restudy cascades across the country.28:33–34:26 · Guest teaching 3/10 Overcoming the "Three Ps": Planning, Permitting, and Paying Rob describes the three Ps of transmission barriers (planning, permitting, paying) using historical successes in ERCOT and MISO. Shayle interrupts to clarify the CREZ acronym and challenges Rob on how fatal local opposition can be for interstate lines like Clean Line.34:27–40:46 · Guest teaching 2/10 Transmission Reform Outlook and Federal Climate Target Realities Shayle asks whether the transmission crisis will reach a breaking point that forces federal reform, citing Jesse Jenkins' Repeat Project modeling on solar buildout rates. Rob agrees and highlights that up to 80% of IRA emissions gains could be lost without grid expansion.3:39–9:27 · Guest disagreement 1/10 A Fifty-Year History of American Transmission Development Shayle Kann prompts a historical walkthrough of US transmission buildout and synthesizes the contrast between earlier stagnant demand and the 2008-2013 renewables buildout. Rob Gramlich walks through the 50-year arc from 1970s coal/hydro interties through post-restructuring congestion to recent stagnancy in a collaborative, informative tone.9:27–17:00 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Analyzing Transmission Congestion and Grid-Enhancing Technologies Shayle lays out a structured three-pillar framework (congestion, interconnection, expansion) and probes alternative mitigations like storage-as-transmission. Rob details the steep rise in congestion costs and explains the utility rate-base disincentives holding back grid-enhancing technologies.17:03–28:33 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Midroll Sponsor Messages: Bloom Energy and Engie Shayle breaks down the interconnection queue backlog and probes whether developers are flooding queues with speculative fluff. Rob defends developers navigating an unworkable serial study process and explains how individual network upgrade charges trigger restudy cascades across the country.28:33–34:26 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Overcoming the "Three Ps": Planning, Permitting, and Paying Rob describes the three Ps of transmission barriers (planning, permitting, paying) using historical successes in ERCOT and MISO. Shayle interrupts to clarify the CREZ acronym and challenges Rob on how fatal local opposition can be for interstate lines like Clean Line.34:27–40:46 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Transmission Reform Outlook and Federal Climate Target Realities Shayle asks whether the transmission crisis will reach a breaking point that forces federal reform, citing Jesse Jenkins' Repeat Project modeling on solar buildout rates. Rob agrees and highlights that up to 80% of IRA emissions gains could be lost without grid expansion.3:39–9:27 · Shayle pushing back 1/10 A Fifty-Year History of American Transmission Development Shayle Kann prompts a historical walkthrough of US transmission buildout and synthesizes the contrast between earlier stagnant demand and the 2008-2013 renewables buildout. Rob Gramlich walks through the 50-year arc from 1970s coal/hydro interties through post-restructuring congestion to recent stagnancy in a collaborative, informative tone.9:27–17:00 · Shayle pushing back 2/10 Analyzing Transmission Congestion and Grid-Enhancing Technologies Shayle lays out a structured three-pillar framework (congestion, interconnection, expansion) and probes alternative mitigations like storage-as-transmission. Rob details the steep rise in congestion costs and explains the utility rate-base disincentives holding back grid-enhancing technologies.17:03–28:33 · Shayle pushing back 2/10 Midroll Sponsor Messages: Bloom Energy and Engie Shayle breaks down the interconnection queue backlog and probes whether developers are flooding queues with speculative fluff. Rob defends developers navigating an unworkable serial study process and explains how individual network upgrade charges trigger restudy cascades across the country.28:33–34:26 · Shayle pushing back 2/10 Overcoming the "Three Ps": Planning, Permitting, and Paying Rob describes the three Ps of transmission barriers (planning, permitting, paying) using historical successes in ERCOT and MISO. Shayle interrupts to clarify the CREZ acronym and challenges Rob on how fatal local opposition can be for interstate lines like Clean Line.34:27–40:46 · Shayle pushing back 2/10 Transmission Reform Outlook and Federal Climate Target Realities Shayle asks whether the transmission crisis will reach a breaking point that forces federal reform, citing Jesse Jenkins' Repeat Project modeling on solar buildout rates. Rob agrees and highlights that up to 80% of IRA emissions gains could be lost without grid expansion.

speaking balance: gold is Shayle, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Shayle 31.5% · guest 68.5%0:00 · Shayle 31.5% · guest 68.5%3:00 · Shayle 40.7% · guest 59.3%3:00 · Shayle 40.7% · guest 59.3%6:00 · Shayle 32.4% · guest 67.6%6:00 · Shayle 32.4% · guest 67.6%9:00 · Shayle 33.2% · guest 66.8%9:00 · Shayle 33.2% · guest 66.8%12:00 · Shayle 52.7% · guest 47.3%12:00 · Shayle 52.7% · guest 47.3%15:00 · Shayle 6.8% · guest 93.2%15:00 · Shayle 6.8% · guest 93.2%18:00 · Shayle 31% · guest 69%18:00 · Shayle 31% · guest 69%21:00 · Shayle 19.7% · guest 80.3%21:00 · Shayle 19.7% · guest 80.3%24:00 · Shayle 30.7% · guest 69.3%24:00 · Shayle 30.7% · guest 69.3%27:00 · Shayle 37.2% · guest 62.8%27:00 · Shayle 37.2% · guest 62.8%30:00 · Shayle 3.9% · guest 96.1%30:00 · Shayle 3.9% · guest 96.1%33:00 · Shayle 44.6% · guest 55.4%33:00 · Shayle 44.6% · guest 55.4%36:00 · Shayle 19.9% · guest 80.1%36:00 · Shayle 19.9% · guest 80.1%39:00 · Shayle 64.8% · guest 35.2%39:00 · Shayle 64.8% · guest 35.2%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 27:30 Defending speculative interconnection requests

Rob firmly pushes back on the criticism that clean energy developers are gaming the system with speculative queue entries, asking what else developers are supposed to do under current rules.

 Hardest push from Shayle ▶ 32:52 Challenging permitting optimism with local opposition history

Shayle presses Rob on whether permitting is truly solvable by pointing to high-profile transmission failures like Clean Line where local opposition killed projects.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 19:19 Dissecting the interconnection restudy cascade

Rob educates Shayle on how assigning deep network upgrades to single generators causes withdrawals, triggering endless restudies and tying up transmission engineers.

 Shayle holds their own ▶ 38:54 Citing Jesse Jenkins Repeat Project solar projections

Shayle shows deep subject knowledge by citing post-IRA Repeat Project modeling that forecasts over 100 GW per year of solar buildout to question real-world grid feasibility.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicShayle as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementShayle pushing backWhy
A Fifty-Year History of American Transmission Development 5411 Shayle Kann prompts a historical walkthrough of US transmission buildout and synthesizes the contrast between earlier stagnant demand and the 2008-2013 renewables buildout. Rob Gramlich walks through the 50-year arc from 1970s coal/hydro interties through post-restructuring congestion to recent stagnancy in a collaborative, informative tone.
Analyzing Transmission Congestion and Grid-Enhancing Technologies 6312 Shayle lays out a structured three-pillar framework (congestion, interconnection, expansion) and probes alternative mitigations like storage-as-transmission. Rob details the steep rise in congestion costs and explains the utility rate-base disincentives holding back grid-enhancing technologies.
Midroll Sponsor Messages: Bloom Energy and Engie 6422 Shayle breaks down the interconnection queue backlog and probes whether developers are flooding queues with speculative fluff. Rob defends developers navigating an unworkable serial study process and explains how individual network upgrade charges trigger restudy cascades across the country.
Overcoming the "Three Ps": Planning, Permitting, and Paying 5312 Rob describes the three Ps of transmission barriers (planning, permitting, paying) using historical successes in ERCOT and MISO. Shayle interrupts to clarify the CREZ acronym and challenges Rob on how fatal local opposition can be for interstate lines like Clean Line.
Transmission Reform Outlook and Federal Climate Target Realities 6212 Shayle asks whether the transmission crisis will reach a breaking point that forces federal reform, citing Jesse Jenkins' Repeat Project modeling on solar buildout rates. Rob agrees and highlights that up to 80% of IRA emissions gains could be lost without grid expansion.

Statements from this episode (11)

Assertion Supported
Gramlich: High-capacity transmission buildout has dropped 90% since 2013
“So for the last decade, there really wasn't much, and kind of now it's dried up to a trickle. Like, we're down in the, you know, couple of hundred miles of high capacity, so less than 10% of what we did a decade ago, and that's kind of where we are.”
Rob Gramlich May 4, 2023 ▶ 7:35
Assertion Supported
Gramlich: US transmission congestion costs doubled from 2020 to 2021
“We just put out a grid strategies report saying it finding it doubled from a 2020 to 20 21, and pretty soon we'll get 20 22 data.”
Rob Gramlich May 4, 2023 ▶ 11:15
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gramlich: US electric grid will face severe constraints for five years
“We're going to be, you know, putting a lot more both supply and demand on, and we're going to have a much more constrained grid, I think, for a good five years, and then depending on how long it takes us to build transmission, it could last longer.”
Rob Gramlich May 4, 2023 ▶ 12:04
Insight
Gramlich: Utilities resist cheap grid tech because it hurts rate base returns
“Our utilities love their capital in the rate base. They don't love quite so much cheap things that can solve problems without a lot of capital in the rate base. So that's the problem with grid enhancing technologies.”
Rob Gramlich May 4, 2023 ▶ 16:47
Assertion Supported
Gramlich: Grid interconnection times and costs have more than doubled
“Interconnection to the bulk power system used to take one or two years. Now, it's over four years on, on average. So, it's more than doubled in terms of the time frame of processing. And the cost has more than doubled as well. It used to be in the hundred doll…”
Rob Gramlich May 4, 2023 ▶ 19:20
Assertion Supported
Gramlich: US grid queue holds 2 TW, exceeding total existing capacity
“There's about two terawatts of generation in the queue. It's almost all wind, solar, and storage. And there's only about a terawatt and a quarter of generating capacity operating on the grid right now.”
Rob Gramlich May 4, 2023 ▶ 27:11
Insight
Gramlich: Transmission bottleneck is caused by cost recovery, not capital shortages
“There's no, there's never been a shortage of investment capital for this business, but there's a shortage of ways to get your money back when you build useful lines.”
Rob Gramlich May 4, 2023 ▶ 31:21
Assertion Supported
Gramlich: IRA includes $760 million for communities hosting transmission lines
“One little provision we got into the Inflation Reduction Act is this seven hundred sixty million dollar program for kind of local community economic development, sort of hosting you know, benefits for counties or local communities.”
Rob Gramlich May 4, 2023 ▶ 33:45
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gramlich: IRA and infrastructure law included very little for electricity transmission
“There really wasn't very much for transmission in the Inflation Reduction Act or bipartisan infrastructure law.”
Rob Gramlich May 4, 2023 ▶ 35:40
Prediction Held up
Gramlich: FERC interconnection reform will proceed despite incoming commissioner turnover
“The FERC reform rulemaking is likely to proceed, regardless of new commissioners coming, just because, like, that one was actually passed on a The proposal was passed on a bipartisan five-zero vote at FERC.”
Rob Gramlich May 4, 2023 ▶ 37:59
Prediction Partly held up
Gramlich: Electricity interconnection queue backlogs will not get worse
“I also don't expect the cues to get even worse than they are. I think there are a lot of activities to improve the cue processing issue.”
Rob Gramlich May 4, 2023 ▶ 38:45
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