Transformer

also referred to as: transformers

14 statements across 9 episodes · 1 bullish · 6 bearish · 8 people on the record · first statement Aug 17, 2023 by Andy Lubershane · across every show →

Everything said about Transformer, oldest first

Aug 17, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Lubbershane: Distribution Transformer Prices Rose Up to 9x Between 2020 and 2023
“The average price for a 25 to 50 kilowatt transformer so pretty low level, something you would see at the edge of the electric distribution system increased by up to nine times from twenty-twenty to twenty-twenty-three. It used to pay, you know, 3500 bucks for…”
Andy Lubershane Aug 17, 2023 ▶ 34:08 Navigating the electricity gauntlet
Feb 22, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Mills: 95% to 98% of US transformers use grain-oriented steel
“The problem is about, I'm guessing, 95 to 98% of all the transformers that are being produced in America are using grain-oriented steel.”
Tim Mills Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 24:27 The electric transformer shortage
Feb 22, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mills: Power electronics transformers remain years away from widespread adoption
“I think we're years out. It's a more expensive technology right now, just because of adoption. But in the long run, I think if we continue to invest, there could be some fruit on those trees.”
Tim Mills Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 32:42 The electric transformer shortage
Oct 16, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rathi: Transformer shortages are placing housing projects on 18-month holds
“In my reporting, like I've come across many, many projects like housing projects that are completely on hold for 18 months because they're missing this one object that they need before they can Power the area.”
Akshat Rathi Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 20:29 Calibrating hype with Akshat Rathi
Oct 16, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kann: Upstart hardware companies will help bridge the transformer supply gap
“I think there's going to be a wave of upstart companies, whether they're doing traditional oil-filled transformers or solid-state stuff like Heron is doing. I think they're going to fill in a lot of the supply gap in the next few years”
Shayle Kann Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 21:39 Calibrating hype with Akshat Rathi
Jan 2, 2026
Disclosure
DeepMind uses transformers to model spatial interactions in weather, not time
“We actually use transformers not to model the spatial, the interactions in weather over time, like the sequence of text, but in space.”
Peter Battaglia Jan 2, 2026 ▶ 29:54 How AI is changing weather forecasting
Jan 22, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kann: Gas turbine manufacturing is more oligopolistic than electrical transformers
“Gas turbine manufacturing is even more capital intensive. It's currently more of an oligopoly than transformers are.”
Shayle Kann Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 18:09 More 2026 trends: Solar costs, oil oversupply, and the startup slump
Jan 22, 2026 bearish
Assertion Supported
Nat Bullard: Transformer prices keep rising despite domestic manufacturing push
“If anything, they're still ticking slightly upward. And as much as there's energy and attention and noise being paid to, we need to build stuff here, we're not.”
Nat Bullard Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 17:19 More 2026 trends: Solar costs, oil oversupply, and the startup slump
Feb 19, 2026 negative
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Baglino: Utility-scale solar plant transformers fail at about 1.4% per year
“Transformers are not really designed to run at their rated power, you know, as long as they do in these Desert power plants, you know, where they're, first of all, very hot, because they're sitting in the sun, and second of all, because they're running at name…”
Drew Baglino Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 38:29 The rise of grid power electronics with Drew Baglino
Feb 19, 2026
Insight
Baglino: Higher frequency linearly reduces transformer size and power electronics costs
“The best way to make power electronics Systems that involve isolation more affordable is go up in frequency, because to get isolation, you basically need to use a transformer of some type, and transformers become smaller as you go up in frequency. It's just a,…”
Drew Baglino Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 15:03 The rise of grid power electronics with Drew Baglino
Mar 12, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Kann: Lead times for gas turbines, transformers, and switchgear are 3 to 7 years
“The five to seven years is the timeline to get new gas turbines, if you're ordering them, and it's close to the timeline to get new transformers and other, and switchgear and stuff like that. Like, we're all in the, like, three to five or maybe seven year time…”
Shayle Kann Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 8:02 AI scaling pathways: on grid, on edge, off grid, off planet
Mar 12, 2026 neutral
Insight
Elder: Off-grid setups partially bypass generation bottlenecks with modular equipment
“The off-grid option in some ways maybe shortcuts the actual supply chain bottlenecks on the generation equipment side, at least to some extent relative to the other options. But I agree with you, there's still a bunch of other pieces of equipment, transformers…”
Jake Elder Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 28:38 AI scaling pathways: on grid, on edge, off grid, off planet
Jun 18, 2026 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Lubershane: Grid equipment costs 2-3x more and takes 3-5 years to deliver
“Anything you want to order today is probably going to take three plus years in the case of gas turbines, probably more like five years to be able to get your hands on. Anything you order today, whether it's a turbine or a transformer or just the, you know, alu…”
Andy Lubershane Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 4:49 Enter the electric supercycle
Sep 10, 2026 bearish
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Sep 2026
Lubershain: Grid equipment and gas plant costs have doubled or tripled
“Conductor is, like, twice as expensive. So, like, basic aluminum, steel-reinforced conductor. Transformers are two-plus times more expensive. Switchgear is two times more expensive. Gas power plants are two to three times more expensive.”
Andy Lubershane Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 22:05 Do data centers actually increase electricity prices? No...and yes
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