Russia

24 statements across 14 episodes · 5 bullish · 11 bearish · 13 people on the record · first statement Sep 4, 2017 by Jim Dunn · said 193 times in 59 episodes since 2017 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Louis-Vincent Gave (31), Marko Papic (23), Ted Seides (19), James Aitken (16), Rob Citrone (11), Adam Rodman (8), Scott Wilson (7), Daniel Graña (6)

tap a year for its mentions
007510150202017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
010202017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
004108202017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 3 mentions in 3 episodes 1 per episode
2025 5 mentions in 4 episodes 1 per episode
2024 14 mentions in 10 episodes 1 per episode
2023 21 mentions in 8 episodes 3 per episode
2022 113 mentions in 17 episodes 7 per episode
2021 8 mentions in 3 episodes 3 per episode
2020 14 mentions in 5 episodes 3 per episode
2019 8 mentions in 4 episodes 2 per episode
2018 4 mentions in 2 episodes 2 per episode
2017 3 mentions in 3 episodes 1 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Russia, oldest first

Sep 4, 2017 bearish
Disclosure
Dunn: Verger avoids major investments in China and Russia over rule-of-law concerns
“China and Russia, we can't do it because we believe in the rule of law. So we're not going to invest in those areas in a big way.”
Jim Dunn Sep 4, 2017 ▶ 32:11 Jim Dunn – Protect, Perform, Provide (Capital Allocators, EP.24)
Nov 18, 2019 negative
Disclosure
Rattner: Willett Advisors avoids investing in Russia and likely always will
“We don't invest in Russia, I can't imagine we ever would”
Steve Rattner Nov 18, 2019 ▶ 34:53 Steve Rattner – Overseeing Michael Bloomberg's Family Office (Capital Allocators, EP.113)
Oct 5, 2020 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
WashU drove strong returns buying Russian tech at 5x earnings multiples
“Russia, we've made quite a bit of money in some of the more tech based companies that would trade it. 20 times revenue in the U S that are trading at five times earnings in Russia, growing in return on equity of 60% plus growing at 30, 40% right through COVID …”
Scott Wilson Oct 5, 2020 ▶ 35:18 Scott Wilson – Concentrated Investing at Washington University-St. Louis (Capital Allocators, EP. 159)
Sep 30, 2021 negative
Insight
Graña: Point Estimates Create False Security in Emerging Market Forecasting
“I don't like point estimates. I think that gives you a false sense of security that you know what's going to happen in Russia in year eight or China in year 12.”
Daniel Graña Sep 30, 2021 ▶ 20:07 Daniel Graña – Janus Henderson Investors Emerging Markets Equity (Manager Meetings, EP.13)
Sep 30, 2021 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Graña: Oil, gas, and resources make up 80% of Russia's index
“Russia, 80% of the index are oil and gas and natural resources broadly.”
Daniel Graña Sep 30, 2021 ▶ 11:09 Daniel Graña – Janus Henderson Investors Emerging Markets Equity (Manager Meetings, EP.13)
Sep 30, 2021
Assertion Contradicted
Graña: Russia Holds the Vast Majority of Global Titanium Reserves
“The vast majority of the world's Known reserves of titanium are in Russia.”
Daniel Graña Sep 30, 2021 ▶ 5:11 Daniel Graña – Janus Henderson Investors Emerging Markets Equity (Manager Meetings, EP.13)
Feb 21, 2022
Opinion
Wolfe: Geopolitical Rivalry with China and Russia Eclipses Climate Change
“So I think that those two forces are really going to be probably the most important thing to me, more important than climate change, more important than a lot of the things that have captured the current zeitgeist.”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 32:51 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Feb 28, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: Escalation will trigger 1973-style commodity embargoes and stagflation
“And then you're going to start talking about embargoes of commodities, both self-imposed by Russia and perhaps imposed by the West. And then you're talking about inflationary impacts of this conflict being something akin to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, which is de…”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 9:05 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
Feb 28, 2022 positive
Assertion Supported
Papic: Russia built FX reserves to $550B and its biggest surplus since 2006
“Russia has built up a massive current account surplus, biggest since 2006. Their FX reserves are five hundred fifty billion. They've rebuilt them since 2014.”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 11:50 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
Feb 28, 2022 neutral
Opinion
Papic: Markets are pricing in a quick resolution to Russia's invasion
“The first scenario, just to be clear, is I think what the market is pricing right now, with market action being where it is.”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 8:21 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
Feb 28, 2022 bearish
Opinion
Papic: Imposing Russian regime change on Ukraine is an outright fantasy
“This idea that they're going to impose some sort of regime change, that's like straight out of a fantasy book that somebody read to Putin when he falls asleep. It makes no sense.”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 11:13 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
Feb 28, 2022 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Papic: Russia produces 47% of the world's palladium supply
“I think it's far fetched that Russia stops exporting oil or that the rest of the world embargoes it, but palladium, they produce 47% of global supply.”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 21:44 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
Apr 18, 2022 positive
Opinion
Western response to Russia altered near-term risk calculus for Taiwan
“Given the response of the Western allies and NATO to Ukraine and to Russia, perhaps that has maybe changed the calculus a bit as it relates to what's going on in Taiwan.”
Tom Lenehan Apr 18, 2022 ▶ 54:50 Tom Lenehan – Taking the Helm at the Wallace Foundation (Capital Allocators, EP.246)
Apr 25, 2022 negative
Opinion
Gave: Russia's Ukraine struggles deter China from invading Taiwan
“And I would say that the sanctions that Russia has been hit by, the struggle that their army has had, if anything, it really highlights to Xi Jinping that the risks are really pretty big. It'd be a hell of a dice to roll to go ahead with this. So in that respe…”
Louis-Vincent Gave Apr 25, 2022 ▶ 45:03 Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247)
Apr 25, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gave: China can weather the energy crisis by buying Russian oil
“If you buy your energy in your own currency, it's a Huge comparative advantage. So China should actually be fine out of all of this.”
Louis-Vincent Gave Apr 25, 2022 ▶ 35:34 Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247)
Apr 25, 2022 negative
What-if
Gave: Europe's Energy Policy May Have Emboldened Russia's Invasion
“I think if Europe hadn't followed such a boneheaded energy policy, perhaps Russia wouldn't have invaded Ukraine.”
Louis-Vincent Gave Apr 25, 2022 ▶ 33:02 Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247)
May 5, 2022
Assertion Supported
Drobny: Russia is smaller than Texas; China is 15-25% of global GDP
“You could ignore Russia because their economy is smaller than the size of Texas. But China is somewhere between 15 to 25% of global GDP, depending on how you count and what numbers you believe.”
Steve Drobny May 5, 2022 ▶ 17:33 Steve Drobny – Where the World is Going at Clocktower Group (Manager Meeting, 30)
Jul 11, 2022 bearish
Opinion
A West-China-Russia Cold War Will Crush Asset Prices and Returns
“I really think that we're in a process of moving to a massive cold war of the West against China and Russia. I think that's terrible for returns and asset prices, and it's really bad, obviously, for Chinese assets.”
Rob Citrone Jul 11, 2022 ▶ 26:23 Rob Citrone – Emerging Markets, Hedge Funds, and Staying in the Game (Capital Allocators, EP.261)
Jul 11, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Distressed Russian Assets Will Return 50x Rapidly Upon Any Regime Change
“Just a small amount of investment in those stocks, and some people can retire on it because you're going to make 50 times your money on any regime change in a very quick period of time, so.”
Rob Citrone Jul 11, 2022 ▶ 27:15 Rob Citrone – Emerging Markets, Hedge Funds, and Staying in the Game (Capital Allocators, EP.261)
Oct 10, 2022
Assertion Contradicted
Gave: Russia is the only nation to default on local currency debt
“The only country to ever go bust on its local currency bonds is Russia. In 98 or 99, they basically decided to stiff foreigners because that's how they are.”
Louis-Vincent Gave Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 17:04 Louis-Vincent Gave – The Case for Emerging Markets (Capital Allocators, EP.275)
Oct 10, 2022 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Gave: Most Russian commodity trade is shifting to the Chinese renminbi
“Right now you have the world's largest commodity exporter, namely Russia. That has been kicked out of the US dollar system for its behavior. And therefore, most of Russia's commodity trades is shifting from US dollar to renminbi.”
Louis-Vincent Gave Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 27:59 Louis-Vincent Gave – The Case for Emerging Markets (Capital Allocators, EP.275)
Mar 27, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Rodman: Kazakhstan Mines 40% of Global Uranium While Russia Only Mines 5%
“Russia does not do much direct ethereal-weight mining. They're maybe five percent global supply or so. But Kazakhstan, fully independent neighboring country, former satellite, is 40%.”
Adam Rodman Mar 27, 2023 ▶ 21:02 Adam Rodman – The Case for Nuclear (Climate Solutions EP.4, Capital Allocators EP.304)
May 15, 2023 negative
Disclosure
Lasry: Russia seized four planes from Avenue Capital following Ukraine war sanctions
“We have an aviation fund that invests, and we own four planes. Those planes, at the time of the Ukraine war, were taking passengers from Turkey to Moscow. When sanctions came down, Moscow grounded those planes, and we found, all of a sudden, Four of our assets…”
Marc Lasry May 15, 2023 ▶ 54:48 Marc Lasry – Avenues of Opportunity (Capital Allocators, EP.315)
Mar 11, 2024 negative
Disclosure
Leffell: 10 East refuses investments in China, Latin America, and Russia
“We're not going to invest in China. We're not going to invest in the Far East. Not going to go to Latin America. Certainly not Russia. We will only invest in places where the rule of law is recognized.”
Michael Leffell Mar 11, 2024 ▶ 41:29 Michael Leffell – Opening Doors to Niche Private Opportunities at 10 East (EP.373)
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