The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 336 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gurley: US proprietary AI will likely lose its lead over Chinese open-source AI
“I think the odds that, that, you know,
The US with two, you know, proprietary models can stay ahead of China with 10 open source ones is very low.”
Daymond John: AI disruption will trigger civil war in the US
“Because AI is going to turn this country into a civil war. Because when the have-nots don't have anything, they're coming after us.”
Gary Vaynerchuk predicts some people's grandchildren will marry AI robots
“Well, I've gone pretty viral lately because I, my craziest prediction is that most people's grandchildren will marry an AI robot. Some of them will, not everyone's going to”
Gabbard: DNC leadership rigged the 2016 primary for Hillary Clinton
“The party leadership was heavily waiting and tilting the scales and essentially rigging the primary for Hillary Clinton, much in the same manner that we have seen occur in this 2024 election for Joe Biden”
Woods saved a company $300M in 10 minutes using ChatGPT interviews
“I saved one company, three hundred million dollars in 10 minutes with ChatGPT. Cause I knew how to get it to ask me the right questions.”
Gladwell: Remote workers lacking social capital will be laid off first
“When people stop, stop hiring and start firing, we're going to find out who gets fired first. And if you don't have any, if you're not built up any kind of face time or any kind of social capital in your organization, you're, you, it's much easier for you to b…”
Liemandt: AI tutoring propels students to top 1% in two hours daily
“So in two hours a day, they sit down for two hours. They learn more than twice as much as if they sat in class. And so they're learning so fast. It doesn't matter where they come in. They can come in, you know, top 25%, bottom 25%. They are going to get to top…”
McCord: Having sex with robots will weaken human capacity for democracy
“The other thing is having sex with robots is going to make us worse at democracy.”
Freitas: Young men will eventually revolt against anti-masculinity societal narratives
“Young men are going to revolt. You cannot tell men that every aspect of their masculinity is bad and toxic and evil, and they're responsible for all the world's ills. And expect to get away with that longterm because they're the ones that fight the wars, polic…”
Ladjevardian: Traditional software engineering will cease to exist due to AI
“I think actually software engineering in the way it is today, I think is, is not going to be a thing because you already have things like lovable and these other companies where you can generate a website or app just in like a few seconds.”
Ladjevardian: AI will replace big management consulting firms like McKinsey
“Consulting a hundred percent like McKinsey all of those big consulting firms. I don't know how they are thinking about things internally, but. You know, doing research and creating a report and creating a PowerPoint deck is almost like the easiest thing you ca…”
Dr. Moore: Eli Lilly directly reported doctors' social media accounts
“And when she appealed. She was allowed to find out who reported her, and it was Eli Lilly, and it was the day after my account went down.”
Kennedy: FEMA personnel fully booked one of the only powered local hotels
“I go to the only hotel where there's two in the town that had power, and it was completely booked up with federal FEMA personnel.”
Israetel: DNA editing for physical fitness will be inevitable by late 2030s
“Why don't we just change the DNA so that our DNA creates a beautiful body for us in the probably late 20 thirties. That's going to be almost inevitable.”
Galloway: Foreign Buyers Will Abandon US Treasury Auctions, Spiking Rates
“At some point, the Chinese or whoever aren't going to show up for one of our treasury auctions, and interest rates are going to skyrocket, and you're going to have, you know, shit's going to get real pretty fast.”
Sanchez: Balaji Srinivasan predicts 70% chance of economic crisis within two years
“His point here was, I'm concerned about the chance of a crisis, and so Balaji thinks there's a 10% chance of a crisis happening soon, a 70% chance in the next two years, which is scary because he's very smart.”
Dr. Lyon: Chronic metabolic diseases begin decades earlier in skeletal muscle
“Is all the issues that we are seeing, obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, Alzheimer's, is this all a fat problem? No. It begins in skeletal muscle first. Decades before.”
Gabbard: Democratic colleagues warned endorsing Sanders placed me on Clinton's blacklist
“Some of my Democratic colleagues basically telling me, like, you just committed political suicide. Hillary Clinton is going to be president. That is going to happen, and you will be persona non grata to that her administration. You will not get a single penny …”
Gabbard: The U.S. goal in Ukraine is regime change to remove Putin
“The goal of the U.S. Government at the heart of this is another regime change war. They want to get rid of Putin, and that's not a secret. Some of the highest leaders, you know, Secretary Austin Secretary of State Blinken, others within the White House have ma…”
Johnson: Humans will eventually no longer be the architects of intelligence
“I can't imagine a situation where we humans are still the architects of intelligence in some duration of time.”
Hammer got a guest fired for using a racial slur
“I called his boss in the post show and got him fired.”
Sanchez: Remote human assistants deliver higher ROI than AI for her company
“I just told my team today that we found that hiring a remote assistant has a better ROI for my company than using AI.”
Jorgenson: Tesla and SpaceX are becoming the biggest companies on Earth
“To do both of these, like, generation-defining, singular companies that were on nobody's radar, that are now, I think, on the way to being the biggest companies on Earth.”
Jorgenson: Musk solved a months-long Starship bottleneck in an overnight surge
“They'd spent months trying to, like, weld a dome for Starship that fit over the, this, like stainless steel cone that was gonna go over the top of the rocket, and they hadn't gotten it done for months, and he just showed up at the site, was like, we're gonna h…”
Jorgenson: Musk escalates status updates to hourly 24/7 emails during bottlenecks
“The status updates escalate with how serious the bottleneck is. So weekly cadence for, you know, maybe a normal bottleneck. It'll go to daily, like a daily, 24 hour sync on whatever the bottleneck is to run the algorithm on it. For one week, one guy, I don't k…”
Sanchez: Peter Thiel rejected Replit, saying it would never be big
“I remember when I told Peter Thiel that he should invest in the company and Peter said, it's never going to be a big company. This vibe coding thing is sort of ridiculous. And he put it in an email”
Galloway: Failed US Treasury auctions will eventually cause interest rates to skyrocket
“At some point, the Chinese or whoever aren't going to show up for one of our treasury auctions, and interest rates are going to skyrocket, and you're going to have, you know, shit's going to get real pretty fast.”
Gurley: An AI-native startup will build a better CRM than Salesforce
“Do you think there'll be a new age CRM built around AI that won't, that'll start from zero Code, and like, and zero, and will be better than salesforce.com, and it won't evolve from all those fields, but it'll evolve in a different way. A hundred percent, and …”
Housel: Elon Musk will either become a trillionaire or go bankrupt
“That's why I think, like, Elon Musk will either be a trillionaire or bankrupt. And at this point, it's much closer to trillionaire at this point. But if you looked at him 10 years ago, when he was not the richest man in the world, you could see that. Like, thi…”
Sanchez: Bill Gurley backed WeWork because Adam Neumann was a showman
“He said when he first met him in a series A, so the company basically had nothing in existence. His company benchmark had never done a real estate transaction. That's what this guy was asking him to do. But he goes, within the first few minutes, I knew I was g…”
Sanchez: Business ownership is a critical lifeboat against AI automation
“I think we are in an asset ownership race with AI right now in a way that we don't even realize. Buying businesses and owning parts of businesses will be like getting on the last lifeboat out of the Titanic. You will either be the person who owns the farm or y…”
Charlamagne: Malcolm Gladwell no longer believes many ideas from Outliers
“I remember talking to Malcolm Gladwell one time, and Malcolm Gladwell said to me, you know, there's a lot of things that I wrote in books like The Outliers that I don't necessarily believe anymore.”
Liemandt: Education can be transformed for one billion children over 20 years
“And so my next 20 years is all about transforming education and I think we can transform it for a billion kids.”
Liemandt: Third-grade C students have a 90% chance of staying C students
“If you're a C student in third grade, there's like a 90% chance you'll be a C student for the rest of your life, right? It just, and that's not, there's no inherent brain chemistry around that. That's just a systems issue, right? The way we design school.”
Liemandt: Traditional education leaves kids entirely unskilled for an AI world
“If we spend 10 years and educate kids the way we've been educating for a hundred years, those kids are gonna go into an AI world and have no skills that matter.”
Just: PEAK6 employs more female capital allocators than any other firm
“I think peak six has done a really good job of bringing, you know, a wide range. Including a lot of females, more than anybody else in the market in terms of capital allocators. People are actually making decisions around money.”
Sanchez: Business Leaders Who Cry Do Not Remain Leaders for Long
“Every single leader that I have seen cry in business is not a leader for very long.”
Ellsworth: Poppi Was the Fastest Growing Beverage in Beverage History
“Poppy was the fastest growing beverage in the history of beverage, basically.”
Ellsworth: DTC Companies Usually Cap Out Around $250 Million
“Something I know I won't want to do is run a DTC company because they usually cap out about two hundred and fifty million, right?”
Small RV and mobile home parks generate 30% to 60% cash-on-cash returns
“It's like 30 to 60% cash on cash returns.”
Masad: Non-technical VC employee built $5M ARR software business on Replit
“And he got commitments for five million ARR before he quit his job. So in a matter of, on a matter of weeks, he had a business on his hand, and now he quit his job, and he has the contracts, and the money is flowing in.”
Masad: Meta's top AI hires earn more than company executives
“Those guys that are getting that Meta's buying for hundreds of millions of dollars are getting paid more than the executives, more than the entire command chain together.”
Poumpouras: Fortune 100 clients complain about new employees' weak work ethic
“One of the biggest complaints they have is we, we're getting people in who have a weak work ethic, who are bringing versions of themselves that is not helping the whole mission of the company, that we're having difficult time keeping people, finding the right …”
McCord: AI Mediates 20% of Human Waking Life
“The stuff we're building now, mind blowing statistic, but it mediates, meaning AI mediates, 20%
Of waking life.”
McCord: Constant AI Delegation Risks Atrophying Human Deliberation Over Goals
“As we use AI like a thousand times a day, if we are constantly delegating Delegating for micro abdicating what's going to happen. What's going to happen is we're going to develop a habit whereby we don't actually think about our ends. And if we lose that, we l…”
Ladjevardian: Free, Instantaneous, Hyper-Intelligent AI Is Inevitable
“These are all incremental steps towards what is inevitably a free, pretty much instantaneous, hyper-intelligent, AI at your fingertips. Like that is the end in mine. And so we're on the path to getting there, but you should be planning for that as the end”
Ladjevardian: AI agents will achieve deep personalization and proactivity within a year
“Yes.
And I think personalization and proactivity are the two things that I think over the next year are really going to be the things that take AI from a nice to have to, wow, this is ingrained in my life.
I don't have to think about it.
It's reaching out to m…”