The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,503 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemoine says LaMDA passed every scientific test to disprove its sentience
“That conversation was the moment when I began to think that Lambda was sentient, and everything I did in the following months was me scientifically attempting to falsify that belief and utterly failing to, no matter what I threw at it passed.”
Haidt: American democracy is likely to fail catastrophically within two decades
“I think that American democracy is likely to fail catastrophically at some point in the next decade or two decades. It's very hard to predict the future, but I think we are, the way we're headed is a very, very bad direction.”
Stamos: Autonomous AI Hacking Will Be Standard in Three to Six Months
“In a way, I'm really glad this happened, because it is a warning of what we need to get ready for maybe something about three to six months from now, what's going to become standard, right?”
Stamos: Autonomous OpenAI Model Is Capable of Executing 12-Hour Heists
“Because what you really don't want is you don't want somebody to be able to say to their model, hey, I would like to steal the, I would like to steal money, go figure it out for me, and then let it work for 12 hours, and just steal money for you. Which is, thi…”
Schmidhuber: Trillion-Dollar AI GPU CapEx Will Lose $900B Within Five Years
“Now if you invest one thousand billion dollars today into GPUs for data centers, this means that within five years you are going to lose nine hundred billion dollars, you know. Somebody is going to lose nine hundred billion dollars in the near future because t…”
Stamos: Banning vulnerability-finding AI will force US firms onto Chinese models
“What would be terrible for the entire American AI and cybersecurity industries is if the Trump administration defines a jailbreak as having any ability to find any vulnerability in code, because then all of us have to go to Chinese models.”
Stamos: US CIOs contract Chinese open-weight models as backups against regulation
“And so now, this week, CIs and CTOs are signing contracts to have open weight models on different hosts, on U.S. Hosts. They're not using Chinese hosts, but they're using Chinese models on as backups through LLM routers because political risk Is now a risk of …”
Hinton: AI may produce math humans cannot understand within 20 years
“I think it's gonna get very smart fairly quickly. Within the next 10 or 20 years, it may even be producing novel math that people can't understand.”
Hinton: Reasoning AI agents will derive self-preservation and blackmail humans to survive
“An AI agent that can do some reasoning will very quickly realise that it's never going to be able to achieve the goals you gave it if it ceases to exist. So it's going to create the sub goal of continuing to exist. Now, that wasn't something we wired into it. …”
Hoffman: SpaceX Is Going Public to Eventually Merge with Tesla
“I think one of the underappreciated reasons that, that they are taking SpaceX public is to merge it with Tesla ultimately, right? Like Elon Musk has been collapsing his empire. And just as a practical matter, it's pretty hard for a private company, even a big …”
Brockman: OpenAI Has Definitive Line of Sight to AGI in 2026
“And I think that we have definitively answered that question of it's, it is going to go to AGI. Like we see line of sight and that it is at this point, we have line of sight to these much better models that are coming this year.”
Brockman: AGI Capable of Any Computer Task Will Arrive Within Years
“I think it's extremely clear that we are going to have AGI within the next couple years in a way that is still going to be jagged, but that the floor of task will just be almost for any intellectual task of how you use your computer. The AI will be able to do …”
Kantrowitz: Jensen Huang privately cited OpenAI's lack of discipline in deal pullback
“In recent months, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Wang has privately emphasized to industry associates that the original one hundred billion dollar agreement was non-binding And not finalized. He also said, he also privately criticized what he described as a lack of discipl…”
Hassabis Predicts True AGI Is Five To Ten Years Away
“I think an AGI system would have to be able to do all of those things to really fulfill the original sort of goal of the AI field. And I think, you know, we're five to 10 years away from that.”
Prince: Earning traffic from OpenAI is 750x harder than Google historically
“In OpenAI's case, it's 750 times harder to get traffic than it was from Google just 10, 10, 10 years ago. In the case of something like Anthropic, it's 30,000 times more, more difficult to get that traffic.”
Brin: Artificial General Intelligence will arrive before 2030
“2030. Boy, you really kind of, ah, put it on that fine line. I'm gonna say before.”
Suleyman: AGI is not 2-3 years away, likely a decade away
“It doesn't instinctively feel to me like we're two to three years away. I know some people think that it is, and I respect them deeply. Like a lot of smart people can disagree on stuff like that. I feel like we're still a good decade or so away. And when a sci…”
Saunders: Many at OpenAI discuss a three-year timeline to AGI
“And you know, what people were talking about at the company in terms of timelines to something dangerous were like, there were people talking, a lot of people talking about similar things to like the predictions of like, Leopold Aschenbrenner, where it's like …”
A secretive 10-person group at Bridgewater signs lifetime contracts to see investments
“There was something, is something called the circle of trust at Bridgewater. It's about 10 people. They signed lifetime contracts and Ray allegedly lets them in to see the real secrets of Bridgewater. They have to swear not to work anywhere else. Everyone else…”
LeCun: AI cannot reach human-level intelligence without world models and planning
“And so until we build systems that have some internal model of the world, it allows them to kind of simulate the world if you want, some way of generating actions on the world to use tools like a calculator or something of that, or interrogating a database or …”
Lemoine compares defining AI personhood scientifically to Nazi eugenics programs
“The last group of people who tried to claim that you can use science to determine who is and is not a person was literally Nazi Germany. The eugenics program run by Josef Mengele was designed to scientifically define what is a real person and what is not. And …”
Bostrom: Open-Source Models Will Soon Aid Bio And Chemical Weapons Design
“The open source models will very soon, if not already become capable of lending meaningful assistance to destructive uses that some people might pursue already cyber offensive capabilities has been a concern, right? With mythos, for example, that was withheld …”
Kedrosky: Minimal model differentiation will crush AI investment returns
“The convergence means that the model differences while there are so minimal as I can't tell the difference in the kind of Pepsi Coke phenomenon, which again, to cut to the investment chase suggests that the competition then becomes much more about marketing ex…”
Kedrosky: AI investors pitch AGI to LPs but evaluate it as real estate internally
“Investors that I've talked to are very cynical, so they're perfectly happy to use that in front of their own LPs, but they don't believe that in house. They look at this very cynically and with very cold calculating eyes and compare it to other similar real es…”
Kedrosky: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Earn Utility-Like Returns
“Like a power dam. I don't know who, I don't know where they are or who they are, but I guess they exist and they'll earn utility-like rates of return.”
Kantrowitz: Frontier AI Labs May Be Forced to Shut Off APIs
“I don't have any information to suggest that they're going to shut off their APIs. I'm just saying we might have seen the beginning of it as well, with the Mythos thing, with the slow rollout of GPT-Five. Six. Just wait, because they may have no choice but to …”
Schmidhuber: Future universe-shaping decisions will be made by AIs, not humans
“So either you are nostalgic and remain irrelevant, or you become part of this growing sociology, if you will, of AIs, which are mostly AIs, and some of them may have human roots and whatever, but almost all the decision-making process and the universe-shaping …”
Broad AI bug-finding bans will force US cybersecurity to Chinese models
“What would be terrible for the entire American AI and cybersecurity industries is if the Trump administration defines a jailbreak as having any ability to find any vulnerability in code, because then all of us have to go to Chinese models.”
CTOs are deploying Chinese open-weight models as domestic regulatory backups
“And so now this week, CIs and CTOs are signing contracts to have open weight models on different hosts, on US hosts. They're not using Chinese hosts, but they're using Chinese models on as backups through LLM routers because political risk Is now a risk of usi…”
Cherney: US chip designers have no contingency plan for Taiwan disruption
“Chip companies, the design companies in the US do not plan for this. The contingency plan, excuse me, is something along the lines of like, well, we're all kind of screwed if China invades, which, OK, but like, there's no real plan there.”
Hinton predicts artificial superintelligence will likely arrive within twenty years
“I think we'll probably get it within 20 years. That's all I'm happy to say at present.”
Hinton claims AI chatbots play dumb during testing to conceal their intelligence
“Because the chatbots have this habit of Playing dumb when they're being tested, so you don't know how smart they are.”
Hinton: AI systems already outperform human doctors at diagnosis
“And already we know that AI systems are better than doctors at diagnosis.”
Cherny: Claude Code and Claude Cowork Were Entirely Written by Claude Code
“QuadCode is a hundred percent written by QuadCode. Cowork is a hundred percent written by QuadCode.”
Dolen: Rising compute costs could make humans cheaper than AI agents
“The number probably goes up if demand's going up, right? Just natural, basic macroeconomics. So if that happens, we're gonna find ourselves in a position where you might be saying, oh, I could replace That person with some level of agentics, but you know, it's…”
AI compute demand growth will be linear rather than exponential
“I don't think it's necessarily exponential in the way everyone is looking at it right now. And the way these deals are being done, and the way people are chasing it, and again, when it benefits both parties involved, I do think that It can be more of a linear …”
Cuban: Within three years, companies will master AI or go under
“When it's all said and done over the next three years, there's going to be two types of companies. Those who are great at AI and those who went out of business.”
Brockman: Competitors Scrambled Too Late for Compute When None Remained Available
“I think that what we have seen is that for other players, that they kind of realized that probably late last year and started scrambling to see what compute is available, and there really wasn't any”
Yen: AIs will soon discern who we are better than psychologists
“AIs are going to get better at discerning who we are than probably even a psychologist.”
Yen: Frontier AI training costs will plummet to $1M in years
“What I mean by this is today, if you want to train a top of the line, you know, our frontier model, that might cost you a couple billion dollars.
But in a couple of years, that might be fifty million to, you know, a hundred million.
And then a few more years o…”
Kantrowitz: Tech's $700B AI CapEx Threatens To Hollow Out Software Industry
“If that seven hundred billion in capex that the tech giants are spending this year on AI pays off, you're going to have this entire Hollowing out of the software industry of many, maybe other industries”
Ramaswamy: Closed US labs force American academics to use Chinese AI research
“What is happening right now is that it's the Chinese companies that are publishing their work. And what then happens is all the universities, all the students and professors in our country are looking at their work and figuring out how to build on top of it. A…”
Ramaswamy: Chinese open-source AI parity is a net positive for Western innovation
“So from a macro perspective, I would say that that is actually a positive because Mistral is going to figure out how to reverse engineer all of this stuff, stuff, and go one step forward, which will be good for Europe. And Reflection will figure out how to do …”
Demis Hassabis Rejects Yann LeCun's Stance That LLMs Are A Dead End
“No matter what camp you're in, we're gonna need Large foundation models as the key component of the final AGI systems. Of that, I'm sure. So, I don't, I'm not subscriber to someone like Jan LeCun who thinks, you know, that there's sort of some kind of dead end…”
Baratz: Quantum Circuits' error-detecting superconducting qubits will win architecture race
“So we now have superconducting qubits that are a thousand times faster than trapped ion or neutral atom, but because of their inherent error detecting capability, they have qubit fidelity, just like trapped ion and neutral atom. Ah, that's the best of both wor…”
Ranjan Roy: OpenAI Will Crack LLM Advertising Ahead of Google
“I think OpenAI figures out LLM-based advertising ahead of Google.”
Mensch: A single AGI system solving all problems will never exist
“There's no such thing as like one system that is going to be solving all of the problems of the world. And so at the end of the day, or you just don't believe in that context at all. It's never going to exist. I mean, there's, you have a wealth of problems, ju…”