The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,136 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kosloff: Trump will run in 2024 and easily win GOP primary
“The thing that's weird for me, Trump is going to run. Trump easily wins the primary.”
Kosloff predicts a U.S. TikTok ban or forced spinout is inevitable
“For me, the question isn't like, Is there gonna be some form of TikTok spin out disinvestiture ban? It's gonna happen at some point.”
Haugen: Users Found Facebook Feeds Less Meaningful After 2018 Algorithm Change
“Back in 2018, Facebook switched from just seeing how long they could keep you on Facebook, to seeing could they drive you to do interaction. And they called it meaningful social interactions. Stuff that got more interactions was considered better content. Even…”
AI Cannot Fully Automate Any Single US Occupation, Study Finds
“What we found was that in most jobs, there were some tasks that machine learning could do better than humans, or would be able to if you applied the technology, and there's kind of a gold rush now to do that. But in not a single occupation, we looked at all of…”
Thiel invested $10M each in former employees JD Vance and Blake Masters
“Putting ten million dollars into this guy, Blake Masters, running for Senate in Arizona, ten million dollars into JD Vance Both of them either former or current, you know, Teal employees”
Peter Thiel attempted to make Balaji Srinivasan FDA commissioner under Trump
“Teal attempted to get Balaji Srinivasan made FDA commissioner.”
Thiel pushed climate deniers as Trump's top presidential science advisors
“Thiel also had the opportunity to suggest all these chief, candidates for chief scientists, the top scientific advisor to the to the president and his two main choices were climate change deniers. Who, you know, one of whom William Happer... The other, his oth…”
Chafkin: Thiel Sheltered Investment Income Tax-Free in Roth IRA
“Teal has been pursuing his whole career, this very, very, very aggressive strategy to pay. It's legal, but just exceedingly aggressive strategy to pay almost nothing in taxes on his on most of his income. It's his investment income. Because it's all in a Roth …”
Ramaswamy: Search ad page coverage grew from 3% to over 90%
“What used to be three percent of a search result page being covered by ads, 10 plus years ago now gets closer to like 90 plus percent on some queries.”
Ramaswamy: Chrome pops up warnings prompting users to revert search defaults
“It's terrifying for us to do that today when Chrome keeps popping up warnings such as, hey, do you want to change your default back?”
Siegler: Cook takes Apple executive chairman role with CEO-level pay
“Even though he's taking the step back out of the CEO role as executive chairman. He's getting paid CEO-level money”
Kantrowitz: Demis Hassabis has stepped down as Google DeepMind CEO
“Demis Hassabis stepped down as the CEO of Google DeepMind.”
Roy: Claude-Salesforce Integrations Were Already Possible Before Official ClaudeForce Launch
“I don't want to say it's a complete non-event, but you could already do this in Salesforce and Claude. At Rider, where I work, people connect to Salesforce and run all types of queries. It's actually one of the most valuable things I've found for my day-to-day…”
Kantrowitz: Meta Agrees to $18B Settlement Over Youth Addiction Claims
“Meta agrees to pay eighteen billion to settle U.S. Lawsuits over children's social media addiction, and it's going to pay it over the next decade, and strictly limit how teenagers use Facebook and Instagram under an agreement with nearly all U.S. States to res…”
Brown: Studies show AI content is more centrist than traditional news
“There are actually some studies, I was talking to Adam Grant, who is a brilliant professor at the University of Pennsylvania, who is sharing some information with me about just recent studies looking at how content that is on AI that people are getting from AI…”
Kantrowitz: People have taken their lives after speaking with chatbots
“And people have taken their lives after speaking with chatbots.”
Bostrom: Anthropic Gave Claude A Bail Button To End Abusive Chats
“Anthropic has given Claude a bail button, a tool that it can invoke if it feels that the conversation is abusive to it, that can choose to terminate that session, which is a nice start.”
Kedrosky: AI and hyperscalers make up 40-odd percent of S&P 500
“And so people are realizing that they're in it even by holding an S&P 500 index fund because of the concentration of hyperscaler and AI related names, which is something like 40 odd percent now.”
Demis Hassabis Steps Down as Google DeepMind CEO in Leadership Shakeup
“Demis Asabas is stepping down as chief executive for Google DeepMind to become chairman and chief scientist. Google CEO Sundar Pichai said in a post on X. Google DeepMind technology chief Koray Kavukcholu is taking on responsibility for all AI model developmen…”
Kantrowitz: Leopold Aschenbrenner's $20B Fund Blew Up and Sold to Citadel
“It went from millions of dollars in funds to twenty billion dollars in assets under management. And then it effectively, you know, I think blow up is maybe a little too strong, but it effectively blew up this week and it had to sell. It's a large part of its s…”
Kantrowitz: Nvidia Invested $5B Into Ilya Sutskever's Safe Superintelligence
“And NVIDIA decided to make a big strategic investment in them, five billion dollars for a company that doesn't have a product.”
Beck: Global Water Demand Had a 56% Supply Gap Before AI
“And we know that already before AI, we had a gap of 56% between what we needed and what that bubble is gonna be able to provide.”
Shao: DeepSeek Lacks Capital Constraints and Pressure to Commercialize
“The fact that they don't actually have that much pressure to commercialize because they have enough money, he says, like, look, we have enough capital, we are not capital constraint compared to maybe other, other labs, and we are really, really focused on just…”
Shao: Huawei and DeepSeek Are Collaborating Closely on Hardware Optimization
“Huawei is working very closely with deep seek on how to optimize hardware and software and try to figure out this.”
Roy: Alphabet projects first negative free cash flow quarter in history
“The reason this raised alarm bells is, I think this was Google's First quarter of projected negative free cash flow ever. So, I mean, ever. Like, that's crazy.”
Stamos: Fine-Tuning Open AI Models for Cyberattacks Costs Only Thousands
“If you take those models and you bring them into your own lab and you have a training set of labeled vulnerabilities, if you have a cyber gym, then you can make them much better yourself. And the amount of resources it takes to do that is not extremely high. I…”
Kantrowitz: Hugging Face Logged 17,000 Autonomous Actions by Rogue OpenAI Model
“HuggingFace found 17,000 actions that this model combination had taken.”
Stamos: Open-Weight AI Protections Are Easily 'Abliterated' on Hugging Face
“Like a bunch of openweight models have been trained with protections, but you can obliterate those out and you can go on hugging face and look for obliterate and you will find a zillion models where people have removed the protections.”
Kantrowitz: Fable lacked cybersecurity capabilities beyond Anthropic's Claude Opus
“It wasn't like Fable had cyber capabilities beyond, that weren't available, you know, from like Opus.”
Kantrowitz: Apple sent document preservation letters to dozens of OpenAI employees
“So the latest is that Apple has now sent dozens of OpenAI employees legal letters asking them to preserve their documents, and Apple has also said that this, they only found the tip of the iceberg.”
Goode: Intel Fab 52 matches TSMC 2nm tech at fractional scale
“This was the Intel fab 52, which is their most advanced fab. It's a two nanometer fab, and it is on the level of what TSMC does in terms of two nanometer, but of course, at a fraction of the scale of what TSMC does.”
Brockman: Doctors used OpenAI's o3 to diagnose a 20-year mysterious ailment
“Like, for example, today we announced I we have in peer reviewed literature, people, doctors who are using O three. Remember O three? It was like forever ago now. Right. It was like one of our earliest reasoning models using that to find diagnoses for People w…”
OpenAI GPT-5.6 Matches Anthropic Mythos on Exploit Bench at Double Efficiency
“So they ran GPT, 5.6 through a test called exploit bench and the cap, the capabilities were basically on par with mythos. And this is obviously a cybersecurity test, but mythos is much less token efficient. So mythos do something like 300,000 tokens for the fo…”
SpaceX Generates $18.7 Billion in Revenue but Loses $4 Billion
“And remember, this is a company with an 18.7 billion dollars of revenue total. I mean, Amazon, it surpassed its market cap. Amazon has seven hundred fifty billion dollars in revenue. Like this is a company that's losing four billion dollars.”
Anthropic pulled Fable and Mythos rather than seeking a restraining order
“Anthropic decides to actually follow through instead of immediately getting a temporary restraining order, and they, because they have no ability to make sure that no foreign citizen is, is seeing the models actually pulls them down. Both Mythos which was priv…”
Anthropic's Mythos leads all known public cybersecurity benchmark evaluations
“So mythos is almost it is. The best bug finding model that we know about for sure. It is most likely the best bug finding model in the world. And I say most likely because we do not know what the Chinese secretly have in their labs. But for all the stuff for w…”
NIST research proves making an AI jailbreak-proof is mathematically impossible
“No, there's actually a paper from NIST. It's like a kind of a Godel completeness theorem kind of paper that basically says it's impossible to make a model that is completely not jailbreakable.”
Kantrowitz: ChatGPT Reached One Billion Active Users
“ChatGPT, according to third parties, has recently hit one billion active users.”
Cherney: SMIC cannot effectively manufacture advanced sub-node chips without EUV machines
“Their manufacturing process is, is a lot worse. Like one of the research firms just published an analysis of the sort of one of the new Chinese chips, like homemade by SMIC. And it's like, it's good, but they're, they run up to the limit of, like, they can't b…”
Brockman: Doctors use OpenAI's o3 model to diagnose long-unsolved medical cases
“Today we announced I we have in peer-reviewed literature people, doctors who are using O. Three. Remember O. Three? I was like forever ago now, right? It was like one of our earliest reasoning models using that to find diagnoses for People who I had no, no ans…”
Brockman: Future voice AI will process input and output simultaneously
“The obvious thing that you want to accomplish is a model An AI that works much more like you and I do, right? That's able to process input at the same time it's processing output. And all of that is, of course, something that many people in this field are tryi…”
Brockman: Nvidia H100 prices are up despite being previous-gen hardware
“You can see that with some of the prices that people are paying for each 100, right? Hoppers are, you know, kind of, you know, not, not obsolete, right? But they're a previous gen chip and nor in any normal situation, we're not totally supply constrained. No o…”
Top AI Spenders Dedicate Only 2% Of Non-Payroll Budgets To AI
“For the top quartile of firms that are spending on AI, top 25%, it's only about two percent of business spend excluding payroll. You'd be at one percent if you were to include payroll.”
DeepSeek Is One Of Ramp's Fastest Growing Vendors Despite Low Share
“Last month, DeepSeq was one of the fastest growing vendors on ramp. And yet, it's still a very small share of AI spend that is actually going through those rails.”
Top 1% Of Enterprise AI Spenders Average Eight Distinct Vendors
“The top one percent of spenders on AI use eight vendors on average, whereas the median maybe uses two, and that's vendors fairly narrowly defined as LLM providers and maybe some AI infrastructure companies.”
The Median Enterprise Spends Only $11 Monthly On AI Software
“Again, median firm is only spending 11 dollars a month, so there's a lot of room to grow, but even for the one percent, it's still going up.”
Only 5% Of Ramp Enterprises Use Open-Source AI Platforms
“Five percent of firms on our platform are even using these kinds of open source platforms. Last year is one percent, so it's five x growth, and it's actually going faster than the growth that's happening for open ion anthropic, but it's a relatively small perc…”