The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,235 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 147 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Albergati: Traditional web search is going to be gone
“I think traditional search is, like, is going to be just Gone.”
Kantrowitz: Meta will partner with Google or OpenAI on smart glasses
“Over the next year, you will see Meta bring in other AI models. You will see them partner with Google. You might see them partner with OpenAI.”
Clegg: 'America First' tech strategy cannot defeat China or India long-term
“I would be very surprised if that is a workable strategy for the U.S. And at some point, I think there's going to be quite a big sort of falling of the scales from the eyes when they realize you can't beat, you certainly can't beat China like that. And I suspe…”
Luria: Falling GPU rental prices could trigger systemic AI debt defaults
“If we are here two years from now and there's hundreds of billions of dollars of debt, And the demand for AI stabilizes, or we built enough data centers to support the demand we have at that point in time, and the price for leasing pieces of AI for renting acc…”
Luria: Three-year GPU depreciation would drastically cut Oracle and CoreWeave profits
“If you told Amazon and Microsoft, and certainly if you told companies like Oracle and CoreWeave, no, no, no, no. These chips will only generate meaningful revenue for three years. Their profitability would decline very dramatically. So again, from Microsoft, A…”
Luria: Three-year-old AI chips will not generate sufficient revenue to run
“And that's where we think in a three year timeframe, three year old chips will just not be able to do enough computations to be worth keeping them on. So either we replace them or we use them for much less important things. That will generate much less revenue…”
Luria: OpenAI won't make it if it builds datacenters and chips
“If they go down the current path, over committing, Deciding that they have to build their own data centers, they need their own hardware, they need their own chips, they won't make it.”
Roy: OpenAI will certainly need a federal backstop for its spending commitments
“They almost will certainly need this government backstop to actually make this work.”
Kantrowitz: Humans will violently attack and destroy humanoid robots
“Well, I think we will definitely have a war among people and humanoid robots. It's without a doubt. Even if the humanoid robots don't assemble into the army, people will knock these things out and they're already burning Waymos. People don't like robots. They …”
AI Models Will Lack Reliable Information Beyond 2025 Without Creator Compensation
“The information they're pulling in, it is literally going to stop showing up on the internet. And it's like chat TPT will give you good advice for a 20, 25 and earlier, but nothing beyond that.”
Summers: Tech Industry's Unmet Demand Means AI Will Create Net Jobs
“As to whether it's going to create jobs or kill jobs, absolutely going to create jobs. There's so much unmet demand in our industry.”
Enterprises will eventually buy all software and AI from a single provider
“So that goes along with our thesis of convergence of software, that software will converge ultimately given a long enough period of time. All of your software will be provided by one software provider. I believe one AI provider also.”
Highly leveraged AI infrastructure companies face severe financial fallout without monetization
“And I think not every company probably has that. Level of game plan. And I don't think that maybe not every company is probably doing the same level of thoughtfulness of that. And, you know, at some point, you know, different companies will probably be hit by …”
Ranjan Roy compares the OpenAI-Oracle deal to the dot-com fiber buildout
“I think for the market to have reacted that positively, it just, I don't know, it feels like in, you know, the internet bubble, there was so much that happened around fiber build fiber capacity build out that seems to start to echo this, that it this I don't k…”
Masad: Model makers undercutting on price will destroy the ecosystem
“If they're gonna compete by undercutting everyone on price, they're gonna destroy the ecosystem.”
The First AGI Lab Will Not Trigger a Runaway Intelligence Explosion
“Whomever reaches AGI first, they're not going to go into intelligence explosion and just like suddenly, you know, super intelligence gets born. People, you know, other labs will catch up really quickly. And then, you know, there's going to be a lot of models. …”
OpenAI will not achieve $100 billion in annual revenue, Zitron predicts
“Even if OpenAI was profitable, okay, they're the biggest AI company, cool. Are they going to a hundred billion a year? Bullshit. No.”
Levie: Current AI scaling laws will achieve superintelligence
“And I think what you're seeing with scaling is we will be able to certainly accomplish our collective definition of super intelligence. With the current, ah, the current path we're on with scaling laws.”
Petersen: U.S. trade tariffs will decrease American manufacturing
“What we've seen over the last few weeks is it's gonna decrease American manufacturing.”
Smith: Government-run grocery stores will drain public funds and crush bodegas
“So if you make government run grocery stores, it'll do two things. Number one It will outcompete all the little indie grocery stores and bodegas, thus like a meager source of capital and wealth accumulation for like poor people in poor neighborhoods... And the…”
Patel: Individuals will eventually train superintelligences in basements
“The cost of training, the systems is declining so fast that Literally you will be able to train a super intelligence in a basement at some point in the future.”
Roy: A single dominant AI model will not eliminate 20-50% of jobs
“I believe that the one model to rule them all, one giant model is going to wipe out 20% or 50% of white collar jobs. Like, I just don't see that happening.”
Kantrowitz: Grammarly will go extinct as LLMs replace grammar tools
“And here's my hot take on Grammarly. I think they're going to go extinct. I think I wouldn't call them a rapper because they were around before large language models, but all this logic that they painstakingly built into their program and all the AI developmen…”
LeCun: Open-source AI researchers will progress faster than closed competitors
“The people who share their research are going to move faster than the ones that don't.”
Marcus: Gen AI's core business model will be surveillance and ads
“The business model of gen AI will be surveillance and hyper-targeted ads, just like it has been for social media.”
Kantrowitz: Regulators will likely break up Google and potentially Meta
“The vibe here is that we're going to see breakups very likely of Google and potentially of Facebook.”
Hendrycks: Superintelligence race will incentivize preemptive sabotage of rival AI projects
“I think that form of competition would be very dangerous, and because there's a risk of loss of control, and because it might incentivize states to engage in preventive sabotage or preemptive sabotage to disable these sorts of projects.”
Hendrycks: Russia and China may threaten US data centers over superintelligence progress
“If the US were pulling ahead both Russia and China may have a substantial interest in saying, hey, cut this out. Pulling ahead to develop super intelligence, which could give it a huge advantage and an ability to crush crush them. They'd say, you don't get to …”
LeCun: Breakthrough scientific AI will not be an LLM
“No, not, not in the current form. I mean, and whatever form of AI would be able to do that will not be LLMs. They might use LLMs as one component.”
LeCun: Scaling up LLMs will not produce human-level AI
“We are not going to get to human level AI by just scaling up LLMs. This is just not going to happen.”
LeCun: Digital superintelligence will not happen within two years
“Whatever you can hear from some of my more adventurous colleagues it's not going to happen within the next two years. There's absolutely no way in hell to, you know, pardon my French. The, you know, the idea that we're going to have, you know, a country of gen…”
Enjeti: A Future Democratic Administration Will Cancel Musk's Federal Contracts
“Yeah, if you're whoever, if you're Gavin Newsom administration, you're done. Like, it's, I'm gonna use the exact executive order precedent, and all of those contracts are getting canceled.”
Demis Hassabis predicts AGI is three to five years away
“I think you know, I would say probably like three to five years away.”
Demis Hassabis expects Google spinout Isomorphic Labs to cure all diseases
“One is curing all diseases one day. Which I think we're going to do with isomorphic and the work we're doing there or our spin out, our drug discovery spin out.”
Newton predicts Grammarly will be dead by the end of 2025
“Oh, can I give you a prediction? Grammarly dead by end of 2025.”
Arbaugh: Consumer products will require Neuralink compatibility to sell
“And so one day I think everything is gonna be, like, neural link compatible. Like, companies will have to put that in their product in order for it to sell. If it's not neural link compatible, people will be like, well, why, why are we even using this?”
Benioff: Microsoft will likely fast-follow Salesforce into agentic AI
“Maybe Microsoft will pivot like they usually do and fast follow us, you know, into this new agentic world because I think that's really where all the action is going to be.”
Gomez: AI will never cause mass unemployment of humans
“Well, because I think that we will never see mass unemployment of humans. I think that this technology is going to unlock more opportunities. It will let us do more as opposed to Scaling back what we do.”
Brown: Retail pharmacy chains CVS and Walgreens are going away
“All you have to do is look at a chart of CVS, which is in a 60% drawdown from a tie, or look at Walgreens Boots Alliance, which is in a 90% drawdown. These companies are going away.”
Roy: Antitrust pressure will stall Apple's lucrative services revenue growth
“Tim Cook and Apple are quietly one of the most aggressive monopolists in terms of how they build the ecosystem and juice that services revenue and that kind of growth, I think will stall out. I think we're going to start to see some kind of pressure on bundlin…”
Hari warns of opioid-scale death toll from GLP-1 eating disorder misuse
“I think we get an opioid like death toll of young girls who use these drugs to starve themselves.”
AWS's Wood: Foundation AI models will diversify rather than become commodities
“My guess is that these models will not, you know, kind of commodify. My guess is that they will diversify increasingly over time, and that the idea that there's, these models will become commodities Defined as, you know, you can hot swap them and that their ec…”
Clark: Advancing AI will probably require few complex breakthroughs beyond simple scalable ideas
“And I guess my naive view is the amount of things we'll need to do that are extra special will probably be quite small. And the challenge is coming up with simple ideas like next token prediction, but scale for probably other simple ideas we need to figure out…”
Clark: AI sentience could become a field of study with systemic risks
“I'm saying that we may enter the weird zone where that becomes a thing that people study. And I think that if like sentience is a thing, you could imagine like weird versions of it leading to certain types of misuses or problems in the system as well.”
Doshi: Search engine traffic will drop over 25% before 2026
“I mean, I think there's a very high probability it is greater than that number in a shorter span of time.”
Kantrowitz predicts OpenAI will lose its AI market leadership position
“My first prediction is that OpenAI, which is the leader in the field today, is going to lose the throne. That's right. OpenAI will lose the throne. It will still factor in, but it's not going to be the leader in the field that it is today.”