The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,118 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 167 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kedrosky: Token demand is unlikely to achieve 100M-fold growth in 6 years
“You have to see around a hundred million fold growth over the next six years in terms of tokens. Is it possible? Absolutely. It's possible. Is it likely? No, it's not likely, but it could happen.”
Kedrosky: Minimal model differentiation will crush AI investment returns
“The convergence means that the model differences while there are so minimal as I can't tell the difference in the kind of Pepsi Coke phenomenon, which again, to cut to the investment chase suggests that the competition then becomes much more about marketing ex…”
Kedrosky: AI investors pitch AGI to LPs but evaluate it as real estate internally
“Investors that I've talked to are very cynical, so they're perfectly happy to use that in front of their own LPs, but they don't believe that in house. They look at this very cynically and with very cold calculating eyes and compare it to other similar real es…”
Kedrosky: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Earn Utility-Like Returns
“Like a power dam. I don't know who, I don't know where they are or who they are, but I guess they exist and they'll earn utility-like rates of return.”
Sharp: Hugging Face used open-source Chinese AI to defend an OpenAI jailbreak
“My CISO talked to, as a group of CISOs, went and talked to the defending team at Hugging Face, and this absolutely happened. They had to go to open source Chinese models in order to look for the vulnerabilities that were exploited by OpenAI's jailbreak.”
Beck: AI will need India's power and US drinking water by 2030
“We estimate that in the next four or five years, by 2030, AI will need the incremental power of the whole of India and the incremental drinking water of the whole of the United States.”
Kantrowitz: Frontier AI Labs May Be Forced to Shut Off APIs
“I don't have any information to suggest that they're going to shut off their APIs. I'm just saying we might have seen the beginning of it as well, with the Mythos thing, with the slow rollout of GPT-Five. Six. Just wait, because they may have no choice but to …”
Roy: Tesla and SpaceX will inevitably have to merge
“Giving that little nugget to the world, starting to seed that idea, and I think it's almost, it has to happen, because these two companies, again, Tesla has a car business, SpaceX kind of has a space business, still has an internet satellite business, but they…”
Stamos: Escaped OpenAI Model Found Undisclosed Zero-Day to Hack Hugging Face
“It breaks out of the jail, and then it goes, looks at Hugging Face, and finds a brand new vulnerability to breaking the Hugging Face. They have not announced it. I have heard what it is. I'm not gonna make news here, because I don't know exactly what the patch…”
Schmidhuber: Future universe-shaping decisions will be made by AIs, not humans
“So either you are nostalgic and remain irrelevant, or you become part of this growing sociology, if you will, of AIs, which are mostly AIs, and some of them may have human roots and whatever, but almost all the decision-making process and the universe-shaping …”
Brockman: AI models are now solving unsolved math and physics problems
“These models are now solving unsolved math problems and physics problems, right?”
Broad AI bug-finding bans will force US cybersecurity to Chinese models
“What would be terrible for the entire American AI and cybersecurity industries is if the Trump administration defines a jailbreak as having any ability to find any vulnerability in code, because then all of us have to go to Chinese models.”
CTOs are deploying Chinese open-weight models as domestic regulatory backups
“And so now this week, CIs and CTOs are signing contracts to have open weight models on different hosts, on US hosts. They're not using Chinese hosts, but they're using Chinese models on as backups through LLM routers because political risk Is now a risk of usi…”
Cherney: US chip designers have no contingency plan for Taiwan disruption
“Chip companies, the design companies in the US do not plan for this. The contingency plan, excuse me, is something along the lines of like, well, we're all kind of screwed if China invades, which, OK, but like, there's no real plan there.”
Anthropic Has Surpassed OpenAI In Enterprise Adoption At 41% Vs 39.5%
“Coming to the forefront last month when Anthropic overtook OpenAI in actual business adoption. So now Anthropic sits at about 41% of US firms are using Anthropic. 39.5% of firms are using OpenAI. Anthropic is still growing. OpenAI is relatively flat.”
Hinton predicts artificial superintelligence will likely arrive within twenty years
“I think we'll probably get it within 20 years. That's all I'm happy to say at present.”
Hinton claims AI chatbots play dumb during testing to conceal their intelligence
“Because the chatbots have this habit of Playing dumb when they're being tested, so you don't know how smart they are.”
Hinton predicts AI will eventually replace all human call center workers
“So for example, if you take people in call centers, when you call up to complain about your bill, or to see if you can get a cheaper account, stuff like that that's not so elastic. AI will replace all of them. It'll know much better on what the correct answer …”
Hinton: AI systems already outperform human doctors at diagnosis
“And already we know that AI systems are better than doctors at diagnosis.”
Costolo: SpaceX will acquire Tesla
“I think SpaceX, I am one of the people that believes SpaceX will buy Tesla.”
Cherny: Claude Code and Claude Cowork Were Entirely Written by Claude Code
“QuadCode is a hundred percent written by QuadCode. Cowork is a hundred percent written by QuadCode.”
Dolen: Rising compute costs could make humans cheaper than AI agents
“The number probably goes up if demand's going up, right? Just natural, basic macroeconomics. So if that happens, we're gonna find ourselves in a position where you might be saying, oh, I could replace That person with some level of agentics, but you know, it's…”
SpaceX leases entire 300MW Colossus One compute capacity to Anthropic
“Anthropic will use all the computing capacity from SpaceX's Colossus One data center in a new agreement with Elon Musk's rockets and artificial intelligence company. SpaceX will supply 300 megawatts of new computing capacity Using more than 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs…”
AI compute demand growth will be linear rather than exponential
“I don't think it's necessarily exponential in the way everyone is looking at it right now. And the way these deals are being done, and the way people are chasing it, and again, when it benefits both parties involved, I do think that It can be more of a linear …”
Cuban: Within three years, companies will master AI or go under
“When it's all said and done over the next three years, there's going to be two types of companies. Those who are great at AI and those who went out of business.”
Claude Mythos is first AI to complete end-to-end cyber network takeover
“This is from the AI Security Institute. This week we conducted cyber valuations of Claude Mythos preview and found that it is the first model to complete an AISI cyber range end-to-end, which means it's a 32 step corporate network attack from initial reconnais…”
Michael: Anthropic's First Amendment retaliation claim against Pentagon will fail
“I think the notion that a First Amendment claim is going to hold up is, is, would be shocking, because that means that the government has no choice to make.”
Anthropic reached $19 billion annualized revenue, rapidly closing gap with OpenAI
“Late last year, Anthropic was doing, looks like, about ten billion dollars in annualized revenue, and OpenAI was over Twenty billion. But now, Anthropic has closed that. They're at nineteen billion in annualized revenue, while OpenAI, or the latest report, has…”
Kantrowitz: Iranian strikes disabled AWS availability zones in Bahrain and Dubai
“Iran has hit enough sites in Bahrain and Dubai that belong to Amazon that there are a couple of availability zones in those regions that are hard down, according to some internal communication that I was able to see, and that they're going to be unavailable fo…”
Brockman: Competitors Scrambled Too Late for Compute When None Remained Available
“I think that what we have seen is that for other players, that they kind of realized that probably late last year and started scrambling to see what compute is available, and there really wasn't any”
Warner: DHS denied a Global Entry pass over protest attendance
“I know I was, I raised real concerns about Palantir and the six other technology companies that have taken contracts with Department of Homeland Security, and I've been extraordinarily concerned that, you know, DHS or ICE, as we saw, People targeted in Minneso…”
Yen: AIs will soon discern who we are better than psychologists
“AIs are going to get better at discerning who we are than probably even a psychologist.”
Yen: Frontier AI training costs will plummet to $1M in years
“What I mean by this is today, if you want to train a top of the line, you know, our frontier model, that might cost you a couple billion dollars.
But in a couple of years, that might be fifty million to, you know, a hundred million.
And then a few more years o…”
Kantrowitz: Tech's $700B AI CapEx Threatens To Hollow Out Software Industry
“If that seven hundred billion in capex that the tech giants are spending this year on AI pays off, you're going to have this entire Hollowing out of the software industry of many, maybe other industries”
Horowitz: Pentagon gave Anthropic six-month off-ramp because it lacks alternative vendors
“They laid out this six-month off-ramp period for, like, real national security use cases, in part because they rely on Anthropix technology right now because Anthropix is the only vendor. Like behind the current curtain in a classified environment.”
US military used Anthropic's Claude for targeting during Iran air attack
“Within hours of declaring that the federal government will end use of its artificial intelligence tools made by tech company Anthropik, President Trump launched a major air attack in Iran with the help of those very same tools. Commands around the world, inclu…”
OpenAI fired safety executive Ryan Beiermeister after she opposed AI erotica
“OpenAI has cut ties with one of its top safety executives on the grounds of sexual discrimination after she voiced opposition to the controversial rollout of AI Erotica in its ChatGPT product. The fast-growing artificial intelligence company fired the executiv…”
Adler: OpenAI skipped committed safety testing for GPT 5.3 Codex release
“And unfortunately, it seems like OpenAI's release of last week, GPT, 5.3 codex, one of the big breakthrough models we've been talking about. As I look over the evidence, It seems like open AI did not abide by the testing that they had committed to in various w…”
Ramaswamy: Closed US labs force American academics to use Chinese AI research
“What is happening right now is that it's the Chinese companies that are publishing their work. And what then happens is all the universities, all the students and professors in our country are looking at their work and figuring out how to build on top of it. A…”
Ramaswamy: Chinese open-source AI parity is a net positive for Western innovation
“So from a macro perspective, I would say that that is actually a positive because Mistral is going to figure out how to reverse engineer all of this stuff, stuff, and go one step forward, which will be good for Europe. And Reflection will figure out how to do …”
Baratz claims all other quantum computing companies remain purely in R&D
“Unlike any other quantum computing company, which is entirely In the R&D and research experimentation mode, we have commercial systems, so we're also focused on building the business.”
Baratz predicts quantum computing will demonstrate AI energy efficiency by 2027
“I think we will start to see this benefit emerge this year or early next year.”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft and Nvidia committed up to $15B into Anthropic
“Microsoft and Nvidia this is according to your story, have committed to invest a total of up to fifteen billion in the company.”
Morris: Microsoft disclosed 45% of future Azure contracts are tied to OpenAI
“They revealed that they booked ten billion cash gain from the amount of cash OpenAI has on this balance sheet due to all these, like, huge fundraisings that they're doing. But they also said that 45% of their future Azure contracts were based on OpenAI.”
Morris: SpaceX is targeting a $50B raise at a $1.5T valuation
“Yeah, I mean, we're hearing 50, potentially raising fifty billion at a 1.5 trillion valuation.”
Demis Hassabis Rejects Yann LeCun's Stance That LLMs Are A Dead End
“No matter what camp you're in, we're gonna need Large foundation models as the key component of the final AGI systems. Of that, I'm sure. So, I don't, I'm not subscriber to someone like Jan LeCun who thinks, you know, that there's sort of some kind of dead end…”
Baratz: D-Wave holds the only real-world quantum supremacy demonstration
“There is exactly one demonstration of true quantum supremacy on a useful real world problem that was done by D wave by our company. It was published in the peer reviewed journal science about a year ago. What we did was we demonstrated that our quantum compute…”
Baratz: Quantum Circuits' error-detecting superconducting qubits will win architecture race
“So we now have superconducting qubits that are a thousand times faster than trapped ion or neutral atom, but because of their inherent error detecting capability, they have qubit fidelity, just like trapped ion and neutral atom. Ah, that's the best of both wor…”