why aren't all 54 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
SpaceX leases entire 300MW Colossus One compute capacity to Anthropic
“Anthropic will use all the computing capacity from SpaceX's Colossus One data center in a new agreement with Elon Musk's rockets and artificial intelligence company. SpaceX will supply 300 megawatts of new computing capacity Using more than 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs…”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Microsoft and Nvidia committed up to $15B into Anthropic
“Microsoft and Nvidia this is according to your story, have committed to invest a total of up to fifteen billion in the company.”
Assertion Supported
Gardizy: OpenAI Is Developing In-House Chips and Using Cerebras Hardware
“Yeah, yeah, they are. They're using chips from other companies. Cerebris is a good example, and they have their own in-house chip.”
Assertion Supported
Goode: NVIDIA Invested in CoreWeave, Which Used the Capital to Buy Chips
“They have become a major investor in CoreWeave, and then CoreWeave is using that money to buy NVIDIA chips.”
Assertion Supported
Goode: CoreWeave uses Nvidia investment money to buy Nvidia chips
“They're at the point where they have become a major investor in CoreWeave, and then CoreWeave is using that money to buy NVIDIA chips.”
Assertion Supported
Gardizi: OpenAI uses alternative chips and develops in-house silicon to diversify
“They're using chips from other companies. Cerebris is a good example, and they have their own in-house chip. So I think maybe publicly they're doing some big announcements with NVIDIA, and I believe it's five gigawatts they have to deploy in the next couple of…”
Assertion Supported
Nvidia CEO calls OpenClaw the biggest milestone since ChatGPT
“Jensen Wong, the NVIDIA CEO, happens to be driving the whole thing. Four and a half trillion dollar company, which is crazy. Just said that OpenClaw is the most important thing after ChatGPT.”
Prediction Held up
Siegler: Nvidia likely to participate in OpenAI's new round instead of $100B deal
“Actually with open AI doing their new fundraise, it's more likely that NVIDIA is just going to be a part of that fundraise.”
Assertion Supported
Intrator: NVIDIA invested $350M across two rounds while CoreWeave raised $25B
“NVIDIA has made two investments in CoreWeave. They made an investment of a hundred million dollars. And then they made an investment of and that was early, that was in the B round, I believe. .
Brian Venturo: At a two billion dollar valuation.
Michael Intrator…”
Assertion Partly supported
Roy: Nvidia's accounts receivable are rising while cash conversion decreases
“One of the things I kept seeing popping up was if you dig one level lower accounts receivable for Nvidia are actually significantly higher than the typical past quarters. Free cash flow is decreasing or cash conversion of their actual sales. Like all these kin…”
Assertion Supported
Oracle Lost Nearly $100 Million Renting Nvidia Blackwell Chips in Three Months
“In the three months that ended in August, Oracle lost nearly a hundred million from the rentals of NVIDIA's Blackwell chips.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ives: NVIDIA will reach $4 trillion market cap in 3-6 months
“I think you're looking at four trillion dollar mark cap again in the next three to six months. I mean, that's, I think them and Apple, they battle it out for that finish line to get the four trillion.”
Assertion Partly supported
Batnick: Nvidia got cheaper during its run as EPS sextupled
“So Nvidia has gotten cheaper. Over the course of the run, because the fundamentals have outrun even the incredible share price. So over the last, so last year Nvidia earned a dollar nine. That was her earnings per share. Over the last 12 months, it's done six …”
Assertion Supported
Google is the only tech giant with successful custom AI chips
“Google is the company that actually has a successful accelerator program for AI chips already with their TPUs, which other companies are trying, but don't yet have to replace, you know, Nvidia GPUs.”
Prediction Held up
Gelsinger: Intel, AMD, and Nvidia will be AI's three big merchant providers
“There's going to be those that build their own, you know, and that's what you see Amazon, Microsoft, Google are doing. They're going to say, hey, I'm going to own this and do this myself. And then there's going to be the general providers in the marketplace, a…”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Nvidia Invested $5B Into Ilya Sutskever's Safe Superintelligence
“And NVIDIA decided to make a big strategic investment in them, five billion dollars for a company that doesn't have a product.”
Assertion Supported
Brockman: Nvidia H100 prices are up despite being previous-gen hardware
“You can see that with some of the prices that people are paying for each 100, right? Hoppers are, you know, kind of, you know, not, not obsolete, right? But they're a previous gen chip and nor in any normal situation, we're not totally supply constrained. No o…”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Gemini and Claude were trained on TPUs and Trainium, not NVIDIA
“If you look at the TPU, which is the accelerator that Google has been, has put out and Tranium, which is Amazon's version of it you know, two of the top three models in the world, Claude and Gemini were trained on it”
Assertion Supported
Huang says Nvidia's investment in OpenAI might be its last
“Jensen Wong said the thirty billion dollars that he and NVIDIA invested in OpenAI might be the last. Why? Is it because he doesn't trust Sam Altman, or is it because, you know, he doesn't believe in the technology? No. He says the reason for that is because th…”
Assertion Supported
ChatGPT will stay on Azure despite OpenAI's external infrastructure partnerships
“Is ChatGPT, by the way, going to stay on Azure, even though OpenAI is making these partnerships with NVIDIA and Oracle?
[2466] Scott Guthrie: Yes.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz notes Nvidia CEO says AI inference needs 100x more compute
“And I mean, we have Jensen Wang, the CEO of Nvidia saying inference is going to take a hundred times more compute than traditional LLM inference.”
Assertion Supported
Lebaredian: NVIDIA achieved a million-fold AI compute gain over 10 years
“Over the last 10 years, we've had essentially a million x performance increase.”
Assertion Supported
Josh Brown: Nvidia stated Blackwell chips are sold out for 12 months
“They just told us they sold out of Blackwell chips for 12 months.”
Assertion Supported
Shapiro: Every Mercedes will be built on NVIDIA DRIVE platform
“So every Mercedes will be built on NVIDIA drive with the software that we've developed and rolled out by NVIDIA. So it starts with that C-class vehicle, and then we'll go through their entire line over time.”
Assertion Supported
Batnick: No trillion-dollar company has ever grown as fast as Nvidia
“There has never been a company of this size growing this quickly.”
Assertion Supported
Catanzaro: NVIDIA Hopper GPUs feature superior circuits designed by internal AI
“Our hopper GPUs, for example, have a lot of circuits in them that were designed by AI that we built ourselves that have better speed and power and cost characteristics than we knew how to build with any other tool.”
Assertion Supported
Catanzaro: About 40% of NVIDIA data center GPUs go to inference
“Jensen said in the earnings call this week that somewhere around 40% of our data center GPUs were going for inference, which I think is you know, pretty amazing and definitely a shift from where things have been a few years ago.”
Assertion Contradicted
Kantrowitz: Nvidia Now Exchanges GPU Hardware Directly for Equity in Startups
“They have this new approach with startups where they're like, all right, if you want GPUs, we'll take a chunk of your company and we'll deliver the hardware.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Nvidia Has Reached a $5 Trillion Market Cap
“NVIDIA, which is powering all this, is at a five trillion dollar market cap.”
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA's deep research agent blueprint uses at least seven specialized agents
“That deep research blueprint or agent is actually made up of no less than seven agents”
Prediction Held up
AI datacenters will undergo a massive shift to liquid cooling by 2027
“Well, I think one of the biggest changes that's happening right now from a data center perspective, and you're seeing this with the latest NVIDIA GPUs, and I think you're going to see this in a more profound way over the next two years is the shift from air-co…”
Assertion Supported
Altman and Huang negotiated NVIDIA-OpenAI mega-deal without investment banks
“And it is notable that Sam Altman and Jensen Huang apparently negotiated the deal with no banks involved.”
Assertion Supported
Two Companies Account for Roughly 39% of Nvidia's Revenue
“One crazy thing that came out of Nvidia's earnings last week was, I think something like two companies make up 39% of its revenue.”
Prediction Held up
Dwarkesh: Hyperscaler ASICs will come online from all major providers
“And so that just sets up a huge incentive for all these hyperscalers to build their own ASICs, their own accelerators that replace the Nvidia ones. Which I think will come online over the next few years from all of them.”
Assertion Supported
Garman: Nvidia Blackwell delivers about 2.5x compute performance of H100
“I think we were expecting about two and a half times the compute performance out of the Blackwell chip that you get out of an H-one hundred”
Assertion Supported
Shapiro: NVIDIA is the only company offering a three-computer AV stack
“So NVIDIA is the only company that has these three computers, and it's really this whole life cycle of developing, testing, and deploying the software, and really it's a continuous flywheel.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Big cloud providers drive about 45% of Nvidia's data center revenue
“And like something like 45% of Nvidia's data center revenue is coming from the big cloud providers, like those five customers.”
Assertion Supported
Batnick: Nvidia trades at 40x forward earnings compared to Cisco's dot-com 130x
“Cisco got as expensive as I think it was a 130 forward times earnings. Right now NVIDIA is trading somewhere between 40, let's call it 40 times forward earnings.”
Assertion Supported
Doshi: NVIDIA H100 is 1.9x faster but 2x costlier
“One of the problems with NVIDIA was that they released their H 100, but they didn't really reduce its cost. You know, it is, it's two is, you know, 1.9 X faster, but two X costlier.”
Assertion Supported
El Hallak: ServiceNow Is Making 20 Autonomous Agents Available Alongside Project Arc
“Kind of a super exciting part about our partnership with ServiceNow is they talk about 20 autonomous agents that they've, you know, they're making available. These are in addition to these, you know, to project arc.”
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA OpenShell AI sandboxes strictly enforce deny-by-default access permissions
“The default is no. When you spin up OpenShell, the default at runtime for an agent running in a sandbox is an, you are explicitly giving it access to very specific, you know, processes or actions that it wants to take.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: OpenAI gave all Nvidia employees access to GPT-5.5
“They also did something interesting, which is that they gave access to GPT, 5.5, to the entire company of NVIDIA.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: NVIDIA acqui-hired top talent from inference chipmaker Groq
“Remember, they acquired, ah, the, or they, the Aqua higher-zitioned the top talent from Grok, not Elon's Grok, but this Grok company that's meant for inference, and that was one of the big answers for them in in their GTC conference this year.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: NVIDIA Q1 revenue hit $44B, up 69% despite China restrictions
“The company's revenue reached forty-four billion for the first fiscal quarter, for its first fiscal quarter. A 69% increase That was curtailed, so limited to just a 69% increase that was curtailed by Washington's new limits on China chip sales.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Roy: Trump will comment on NVIDIA-Anthropic chip smuggling feud within days
“I think I'm convinced Trump is going to address this one. I'm making the call right here in the next three to four days because it's just too perfect.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Volatility wiped $1.57 trillion off Magnificent Seven stocks in early 2025
“An astonishing 1.57 trillion wiped off the magnificent seven since the start of 2025. The volatility in the tech sector has wiped that amount off of the magnificent seven's valuation. Nvidia saw the biggest decline in the group having lost five hundred and thi…”
Assertion Supported
Tech stocks plunged in pre-market trading after DeepSeek R1's release
“NVIDIA down 10%, Microsoft down four percent. Google down three percent meta down 2.6% SMP down two percent. So this is all based off of this deep seek reckoning or this deep seek realization.”
Assertion Supported
Shapiro: NVIDIA can train regional LLMs on localized traffic laws
“The technology is there so that we can train it on what are the laws of a particular region? I mean, the signs, the light signals, the lane markings in different regions of the country or around the world. Differ quite a bit, and so basically creating these la…”