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Michael Batnick

Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

investorexecutivehostauthoranalyst@michaelbatnick ↗LinkedIn ↗theirrelevantinvestor.com ↗Wikipedia ↗

Michael Batnick is a Managing Partner at registered investment adviser firm Ritholtz Wealth Management, where he serves on the investment committee developing risk management and portfolio strategies. He is the author of Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments, runs The Irrelevant Investor, and co-hosts several financial podcasts.

11statements → 7claims → 6claims resolved → 50%fully supported → 3.91/5average certainty → 2.18/5average debate potential →

3 supported 3 partly supported 0 contradicted 1 not checkable as stated how the 7 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

1 prediction · 6 assertions · 3 opinions · 1 insight · every statement was checked. The prediction and assertions are the 7 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 6 are resolved, and 1 names no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Michael argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Batnick: No trillion-dollar company has ever grown as fast as Nvidia
“There has never been a company of this size growing this quickly.”
Michael Batnick Jun 26, 2024 ▶ 2:21 Decoding the NVIDIA Trade - With Michael Batnick

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
75% certainty 3
67% certainty 4
100% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Michael Batnick on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Michael Batnick said on Big Technology that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Assertion Partly supported
Batnick: Nvidia got cheaper during its run as EPS sextupled
“So Nvidia has gotten cheaper. Over the course of the run, because the fundamentals have outrun even the incredible share price. So over the last, so last year Nvidia earned a dollar nine. That was her earnings per share. Over the last 12 months, it's done six …”
Michael Batnick Jun 26, 2024 ▶ 9:26 Decoding the NVIDIA Trade - With Michael Batnick
Opinion
Batnick: Nvidia could drop 50% without proving the bears right
“Can this thing get cut in half? Absolutely it can get cut in half. But does that prove the, does that prove that the bears were right? I don't think so. Growth stocks get cut in half all the time.”
Michael Batnick Jun 26, 2024 ▶ 21:38 Decoding the NVIDIA Trade - With Michael Batnick
Opinion
Batnick: Missing Nvidia hurts Cathie Wood's innovation fund credibility
“She sold it before the run and listen, she has a difficult job, but to make matters worse, like she never got back on and there was a lot of opportunity for her to do so. And when you market yourself as the innovation fund and you miss the biggest innovation o…”
Michael Batnick Jun 26, 2024 ▶ 23:03 Decoding the NVIDIA Trade - With Michael Batnick
Assertion Supported
Batnick: No trillion-dollar company has ever grown as fast as Nvidia
“There has never been a company of this size growing this quickly.”
Michael Batnick Jun 26, 2024 ▶ 2:21 Decoding the NVIDIA Trade - With Michael Batnick
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Batnick: Nvidia will never match Apple's portfolio ubiquity as a brand
“No, no, it can't. I think the reason why Apple became so ubiquitous in portfolios across America is because the brand, the products became so ubiquitous across America. I don't know what the average American has in their house in terms of the iPhone, maybe an …”
Michael Batnick Jun 26, 2024 ▶ 24:46 Decoding the NVIDIA Trade - With Michael Batnick
Assertion Supported
Batnick: Nvidia trades at 40x forward earnings compared to Cisco's dot-com 130x
“Cisco got as expensive as I think it was a 130 forward times earnings. Right now NVIDIA is trading somewhere between 40, let's call it 40 times forward earnings.”
Michael Batnick Jun 26, 2024 ▶ 4:21 Decoding the NVIDIA Trade - With Michael Batnick
Opinion
Batnick: Nvidia has earned a valuation premium above market multiple
“I don't know what the right answer is, but it probably shouldn't be trading at a market multiple, call it 20 times or so, so it certainly has earned a premium that it's trading at.”
Michael Batnick Jun 26, 2024 ▶ 4:59 Decoding the NVIDIA Trade - With Michael Batnick
Insight
Batnick: A 13% three-day drop is normal for high-growth stocks
“What happened over the last three days is abnormal in terms of the market cap losses, but for a company that's doubled and doubled again and doubled again or whatever the performance has been, for it to lose 13% in three days is completely normal. I mean, that…”
Michael Batnick Jun 26, 2024 ▶ 8:14 Decoding the NVIDIA Trade - With Michael Batnick
Assertion Partly supported
Batnick: Cisco stock collapsed post-bubble despite 15% earnings growth
“Cisco, the business, compounded its earnings at something like 15% in the 15 to 20 years after the bubble burst. The stock got destroyed because it wasn't discounting 15 to 20% earnings per share growth. It ended up discounting like 40 to 50%.”
Michael Batnick Jun 26, 2024 ▶ 11:27 Decoding the NVIDIA Trade - With Michael Batnick
Assertion Supported
Batnick: Nvidia is only the 12th company to lead the S&P 500
“It's only the 12th or 13th company over the last hundred years to wear the crown of the number one company in the S and P 500. It's there's not been a lot of turnover at top. There's only 12 names and NVIDIA is one of them.”
Michael Batnick Jun 26, 2024 ▶ 5:24 Decoding the NVIDIA Trade - With Michael Batnick
Assertion Partly supported
Batnick: Only 14 S&P 500 companies exceed Nvidia's $430B three-day loss
“There's 14, there's 14 companies in the S&P 500 that are bigger than the market cap that was raised in three days. That's it. Only 14 companies are more than four to thirty billion dollars. That's as big as MasterCard and it did it in three days.”
Michael Batnick Jun 26, 2024 ▶ 7:15 Decoding the NVIDIA Trade - With Michael Batnick

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Decoding the NVIDIA Trade - With Michael Batnick Jun 26, 2024 14m
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