The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 299 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 45 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Nolan: Allied nuclear fleets will rely on Russia and China without US
“If the U.S. Does not provide enrichment To these countries, they will have to get it somewhere else as they build up their nuclear fleet, or they turn back on their nuclear fleet, and that'll be Russia, China.”
Scott: Global venture investments are on track to exceed $1T in 2026
“So the, these numbers are kind of apples to oranges, but I think they're, we're on track in 20, 26 to clear a trillion dollars of venture capital. Globally.”
Fry: Small Businesses Will Create Over 80% of Jobs Next Decade
“I believe that in the next decade, they'll rise to four out of five, five out of six jobs.”
Bevirt: Hydrogen Will Over Time Redefine Every Class of Aircraft
“I think that over time hydrogen propulsion will redefine every class of aircraft that's flown today, both on you know, on the commercial side, and for defense applications.”
Kaplan: Software will enter hyper-deflation and output will jump 1000x
“We're going to enter this like hyper deflationary cycle of software where it's so easy to build. It's so abundant. That doesn't mean that people are going to, you know, stop producing software. They're actually going to produce thousands of times more software…”
Kaplan: AI will cause an explosion in small businesses
“One thing I'll go on the record on is I think there's going to be an explosion in small businesses. I think AI is actually like an extremely small business enabling technology in particular”
Wu: AI will delete jobs at 100x the Industrial Revolution's speed
“I think a lot of jobs will be deleted. And I think it'll be on entrepreneurs and founders and investors to create new opportunities for people. So I think we're entering a very interesting time where there, it is industrial revolution times the hundred speed, …”
Isaacman: Humans will visit Mars before point-to-point Earth rocket travel succeeds
“I would almost guarantee you we will get humans to Mars. And back before, like, point-to-point rocket travel is a big thing here on Earth.”
Isaacman: Sending humans to Mars will be possible within years
“Within, within years, we'll be able to send humans to Mars. It's bringing them back.”
Kolicich: Software's future is forward deployed engineers feeding context to LLMs
“And so the like super long-term world is it's all Context to the LLM. It's all requirements. It's all standard operating procedures, which is what FDs do. It's all changing the way people of the business operate, which is an FDE job. And that's the future of s…”
Mandia: Fully autonomous cyber defense systems will emerge within three years.
“Fast forward two or three years, Joe, you're going to see an autonomous defense crafted, trained by the world's best cyber offense, you know, the hyper attack platform.”
Mandia: AI attackers will eliminate the 10-minute human incident-response window.
“The day where a human would break in, and if you were 10 minutes behind the human on defense, you could stop the impact of a breach, is going to end. There's going to be an agent that breaks in, then another agent uploaded because it had remote code access, Re…”
Gebbia: Team aims to fix all 27,000 government websites
“Well, some estimates have up to 27,000. And we're fixing all of them.”
Sununu predicts a US fiscal car crash within eight to nine years
“We have eight, I think we have eight or nine years here, but there will be a, I think a fiscal car crash, so to say, where social security, Medicare the debt, you know, the interest, what interest hit over a trillion this year.”
Sununu: AI will extend human lifespans to 100-105 and cure cancer
“I do believe all this amazing AI technology is people, I think people's lifespans are going to increase exponentially. Not until like 200 years, but we're not going to be living to 75, but we're going to be more commonly living to a hundred or a 105. There'll …”
Sununu: Electricians, plumbers, and mechanics will be tomorrow's millionaires
“The challenge you're gonna have is the electricians, the plumbers the mechanics, these guys are making a fortune now, and I love it. These are tomorrow's millionaires.”
Liemandt: Alpha School will reduce global per-student education costs below $1,000
“And so, and that is our target goal. We're absolutely going to get there. It's not going to be tomorrow, but I, I'm in this for the next 20 years.”
Machado: Democratic transition in Venezuela will be orderly and stable
“The transition in Venezuela to democracy will be orderly, will be stable, because we have a whole country that wants the same”
Machado: Millions of Venezuelans will return immediately once Maduro falls
“Millions of Venezuelan will come back immediately as soon as Maduro comes.”
Machado: Free Venezuela Represents Over $1.7 Trillion Business Opportunity
“Hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans that now have taken refuge in the United States. They will come. They will come back home, and also a huge business opportunity will be open like no other in the region before. And we're talking about over 1.7 trillion doll…”
Hoffman: 24/7 AI medical assistants on every smartphone are in line of sight
“Now, as you and I know, we are line of sight from a medical assistant that's 24 seven on every smartphone for every person who has a smartphone.”
Hoffman: School testing will be 1-on-1 AI oral exams in 3 to 5 years
“A small number of years called three, five. How is assessment going to be done? It's going to be one-on-one oral interviews with AIs.”
Andreessen: US healthcare is on track to reach 50% of GDP
“Healthcare is 20% of the economy on its way to 50%.”
Wu: Reinforcement learning will eventually beat any benchmark with a clear feedback loop
“I think the natural conclusion of RL, which is what we're kind of getting to, is you basically can solve any benchmark, which is insane to think about... Which means like, if you have a clean set of environments, if you have a good feedback loop to decide what…”
Wu: Within five years, software engineering will just be describing what to build
“And I think that's kind of what we're going to get to over the next, I'll call it like five or so years is a point where Software engineering. We might even still call it software engineering or programming or whatever, but it's, it really is just you telling …”
Wu: Lowering barrier to coding will drastically increase total software built
“And I think we're going to see something similar here where it's, you know, imagine, imagine the w w w what we will do, you know, when we get to the point where everyone can just build products and websites and apps and whatever it is of that level of quality …”
Cotton: Supreme Court will restrict nationwide district court injunctions
“So I think these activist liberal judges are issuing so many of these injunctions that you will see a decision I hope sooner rather than later at the Supreme Court where the Supreme Court using its power the apex of our judicial system outlines the circumstanc…”
Lonsdale: Xi Jinping will shut down TikTok rather than allow a sale
“I think because this is such a powerful tool for the CCP that Xi Jinping will not allow it to be Sold out of his control and we'll turn it off instead.”
Israetel: AI alignment will naturally resolve itself at superhuman intelligence levels
“As a system is incremented up in intelligence and gets to human levels, high human levels, and then superhuman levels, alignment almost completely resolves itself.”
Israetel: Next-generation muscle-building drugs will be significantly safer than steroids
“These drugs are going to be Orders of magnitude safer and fewer side effects than anabolic steroids.”
Israetel: Uploading human brains into the cloud is inevitable
“And then us uploading our brains into the cloud, living there for every Kurtzweil style, which I'm super down with. I think that's inevitable.”
Israetel: Cybernetic limb replacements will soon outperform natural biological limbs
“A few years later, People who have lost their arms through amputation, for example, of their legs, their replacement parts will be better than biological parts. Just better.”
Frerichs: Zuckerberg Won't Censor Again, Goldman Won't Return to Quotas
“I actually think folks like Mark Zuckerberg, he's not going to censor speech again. I don't think that you're going to have Goldman going back to some of the quota systems that they were implementing.”
Urban: AI could surpass human intelligence within the next decade
“That could be changing, like, Next decade. Like in our lifetimes.”
Urban: AI-enabled bioweapons pose a severe risk in the near future
“I think that in the near future, of course, you're going to have a higher risk of
Bad guys with using AI, you know, to do things like manufacturing scary bioweapons things like that, that you really, you know, things that could really kill a billion people.”
Urban: Robot nannies and housekeepers will arrive in the 2020s
“Housekeepers, robot nannies and housekeepers will be in the twenties.”
McCord: AI infrastructure spending will reach $1T by early 2030s
“I think, you know, it'll be the biggest infrastructure build that humanity has ever done, I think. I think you could make that argument. I think we will hit a trillion dollars in the early 20 thirties.”
Gil: Machine intelligence will eventually dominate total brain equivalents
“There'd be like three eras of mankind in terms of, or three eras of intelligence, right? And the first era is basically people. And the second era is some hybrid era where it's a you know, if you look at the number of intelligence units or whatever you want to…”
Baker: Global economic recovery is causing goods inflation to accelerate again
“And now goods is accelerating again because the rest of the world is recovering.”
Baker: Passive beta faces weak real returns while active alpha will outperform
“I would say that it's a bad time for beta because we've Really pulled forward a lot of market returns this way, at least in real terms, because we sort of have to inflate the economy into these asset levels. But it's a great time for alpha because since so muc…”
Leo: Many constitutional cases will challenge administrative state in 3-5 years
“There are many more of those cases that are going to be brought over the next three to five years.”
Leo: Beating Back Chevron Doctrine Will Increasingly Restrain the FTC
“I think if we continue to be successful with beating back the Chevron doctrine, And if we continue to be successful in enforcing rules that require Congress to be clearer about what standards agencies need to operate under, yes, I think you can click the wings…”
Lonsdale: Fixing US Healthcare Billing Would Add 1–2 Points to GDP
“I mean, it's literally adding a point or two to GDP if you get this right and fix, fix this, which is like, it's a kind of hard to, it's a pretty amazing if a company could do that.”
Gallagher: Skeptical that US efforts to achieve semiconductor independence will work
“Where we've already made a decision that we're going to try to wean ourself off semiconductor dependency on Taiwan, I guess in this case, I'm skeptical it's going to work”
Slat: Ocean Cleanup needs 10 systems over 10 years for Pacific patch
“For the Great Pacific Garbage Patch if we get to nominal performance, you know, which is the goal for the next nine months with our current system, we would need about 10 of those systems to get the job done in 10 years.”
Slat: Ocean Cleanup technology will be ready to scale by late 2024
“And yeah, I think in about nine months time, we should be at the point that we can say, Hey, we're ready. We're ready for this. The technology is ready. Now it's just up to the willingness of the world to make this happen and make it scale.”
Miller: Rising US debt will eventually trigger money printing and inflation
“So what's gonna happen if we keep running up the debt like this? Eventually you're gonna have to print to solve that, and that will be inflationary.”
Miller: US interest rates will stay elevated for 12 to 15-plus years
“So, my guess is, and this is just a guess, and he who lives by the crystal ball will eat glass, but that it looks more like a slow bleed out than one sort of imminent moment. Of course there will be shocks, but I think what it looks like is for a protracted pe…”