Taiwan

14 statements across 6 episodes · 2 bullish · 7 bearish · 6 people on the record · first statement Jun 29, 2021 by Ashton Kutcher · said 90 times in 12 episodes since 2021 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Joe Lonsdale (46), Tom Cotton (17), Dmitri Alperovitch (9), Congressman Mike Gallagher (6), Ambassador Kelly Craft (4), John Mack (2), Eddie Margain (2), Alex Karp (2)

tap a year for its mentions
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00102.520520212022202320242025episodesmentions per episode
2025 18 mentions in 1 episode
2024 30 mentions in 2 episodes 15 per episode
2023 15 mentions in 5 episodes 3 per episode
2022 18 mentions in 2 episodes 9 per episode
2021 9 mentions in 2 episodes 5 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Taiwan, oldest first

Jun 29, 2021 bearish
Opinion
Kutcher warns China could use TikTok to undermine US naval support.
“If I'm China and I want to create a problem in in in that area of the world specifically a Naval problem in that area of the world. I, in the South China sea, I would probably want to utilize TikTok in order to influence the minds of Americans in a anti-US pro…”
Ashton Kutcher Jun 29, 2021 ▶ 22:49 Ashton Kutcher Warns China Could Use TikTok Against the U.S. · Joe Lonsdale
Feb 3, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Craft: China is watching Ukraine and Taiwan could be next
“We obviously have China watching very closely because my fear is Taiwan will be next.”
Ambassador Kelly Craft Feb 3, 2022 ▶ 1:54 Peng Shuai, Beijing Olympics & Holding China Accountable with Former UN Ambassador Kelly Craft · Joe Lonsdale
Feb 3, 2022 positive
Assertion Supported
Craft: Trump administration sold more arms to Taiwan than any president
“Well, under Trump, we were, we actually sold them the most of any president, and hopefully we are continuing to allow them.”
Ambassador Kelly Craft Feb 3, 2022 ▶ 15:49 Peng Shuai, Beijing Olympics & Holding China Accountable with Former UN Ambassador Kelly Craft · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 31, 2022 positive
Insight
Esper: Ukraine's defense offers a vital blueprint for Taiwan against China
“The third thing though, and I said this again publicly, it was important to see the Taiwan, for the Taiwanese to see what an inspired, well-led defense, a territorial defense of their country can do, in this case, Ukraine, because that will be very important i…”
Dr. Mark Esper Mar 31, 2022 ▶ 10:14 Dr. Mark Esper: Lessons from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine · Joe Lonsdale
Feb 15, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Every Chinese citizen and leader Mack met claims Taiwan belongs to China
“You ask any Chinese leader, Taiwan is part of China. So what's going to, how's, how's that going to play out? I've never met and I've met a lot of Chinese citizens and leaders. Every one of them says the same thing.”
John Mack Feb 15, 2023 ▶ 37:44 How John Mack Saved Morgan Stanley & Transformed Wall Street · Joe Lonsdale
Nov 30, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gallagher: Skeptical that US efforts to achieve semiconductor independence will work
“Where we've already made a decision that we're going to try to wean ourself off semiconductor dependency on Taiwan, I guess in this case, I'm skeptical it's going to work”
Congressman Mike Gallagher Nov 30, 2023 ▶ 37:45 Ep 72: Illegal Chinese Bio Labs & Secret Police Inside America! Congressman Mike Gallagher · Joe Lonsdale
Nov 30, 2023 negative
Opinion
Gallagher: Dangerous to assume China's economic woes deter Taiwan invasion
“And I think it's dangerous, therefore, for president Biden to suggest as he did in Vietnam and as he just did in San Francisco, that because China has economic problems, she is less likely to invade Taiwan.”
Congressman Mike Gallagher Nov 30, 2023 ▶ 34:23 Ep 72: Illegal Chinese Bio Labs & Secret Police Inside America! Congressman Mike Gallagher · Joe Lonsdale
Nov 30, 2023
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Gallagher: US will go to war if China moves on Taiwan
“We will go to war with China if China makes a move against Taiwan, not because one of our ships accidentally bumps into theirs.”
Congressman Mike Gallagher Nov 30, 2023 ▶ 8:01 Ep 72: Illegal Chinese Bio Labs & Secret Police Inside America! Congressman Mike Gallagher · Joe Lonsdale
Aug 22, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taiwan conflict would cost global economy $10 trillion and cause depression
“Immediately, right off the bat, the estimates are that you would lose 10 trillion dollars of value in the global economy if there's a conflict over Taiwan. Global depression on levels we haven't seen since the 19 thirties.”
Dmitri Alperovitch Aug 22, 2024 ▶ 25:18 He Predicted Putin's Invasion. Now He Predicts When China Will Invade Taiwan. · Joe Lonsdale
Aug 22, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
U.S. will instruct Taiwan not to fire first during a Chinese invasion
“And Taiwan can't fire first. In fact, we will tell them that you can't fire first on the Chinese because you don't want to be the one that will quote unquote provoke the war.”
Dmitri Alperovitch Aug 22, 2024 ▶ 30:52 He Predicted Putin's Invasion. Now He Predicts When China Will Invade Taiwan. · Joe Lonsdale
Aug 22, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Chinese cyber group Volt Typhoon breaches US utilities for conflict disruption
“What's different now, and particularly from China, is in the last couple of years, you had the emergence of this new threat vector that is called Volt Typhoon, which is the Chinese military breaking into organizations, but instead of stealing trade secrets, in…”
Dmitri Alperovitch Aug 22, 2024 ▶ 7:25 He Predicted Putin's Invasion. Now He Predicts When China Will Invade Taiwan. · Joe Lonsdale
Aug 22, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Xi Jinping's primary window to invade Taiwan is 2028 to 2032
“And if he wants it to be accomplished on his own watch, I think that's going to be the window in his mind, at least 28 through 32. And beyond that, I think, you know, I don't think he's penciled the date certain in the calendar. It's going to be conditions dep…”
Dmitri Alperovitch Aug 22, 2024 ▶ 36:34 He Predicted Putin's Invasion. Now He Predicts When China Will Invade Taiwan. · Joe Lonsdale
Aug 22, 2024
Opinion
China would need one million troops to successfully occupy Taiwan
“That gives them a huge platform to bring in the massive number of troops that you need to invade this place, Probably at least 600,000 minimum, probably closer to a million realistically to occupy this island of twenty four million people.”
Dmitri Alperovitch Aug 22, 2024 ▶ 29:42 He Predicted Putin's Invasion. Now He Predicts When China Will Invade Taiwan. · Joe Lonsdale
Aug 22, 2024
Insight
Amphibious beach invasion of Taiwan is practically impossible due to terrain
“When you get to the island, you realize that this beach invasion that everyone talks about is basically not doable. The beach beaches are very small. As I mentioned, the waters next to them are very shallow. More importantly, they can be completely far control…”
Dmitri Alperovitch Aug 22, 2024 ▶ 28:20 He Predicted Putin's Invasion. Now He Predicts When China Will Invade Taiwan. · Joe Lonsdale
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