SpaceX

18 statements across 11 episodes · 10 bullish · 2 bearish · 10 people on the record · first statement Jun 29, 2021 by Kimbal Musk · said 83 times in 24 episodes since 2021 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Joe Lonsdale (45), Ian Cinnamon (13), Scott Nolan (4), Andrew McAfee (4), Steve Blank (3), Max Meyer (2), Jared Isaacman (2), Eric Scott (2)

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048202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
004488202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 25 mentions in 8 episodes 3 per episode
2025 30 mentions in 6 episodes 5 per episode
2024 11 mentions in 5 episodes 2 per episode
2023 9 mentions in 3 episodes 3 per episode
2022 1 mention in 1 episode
2021 7 mentions in 1 episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about SpaceX, oldest first

Jun 29, 2021
Assertion Supported
Kimbal Musk: Starship fuselage is bigger than a Boeing 747
“I mean, if you look at Starship, it's big, it's the actual fuselage is bigger than a seven 47.”
Kimbal Musk Jun 29, 2021 ▶ 24:01 Kimbal Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, The Kitchen, and Launching His First Company with Elon · Joe Lonsdale
Jun 29, 2021 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kimbal Musk predicts SpaceX will achieve 100% rocket landing success soon
“So give, give SpaceX a few years. They, they'll be really consistent and a hundred percent success.”
Kimbal Musk Jun 29, 2021 ▶ 23:51 Kimbal Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, The Kitchen, and Launching His First Company with Elon · Joe Lonsdale
Dec 13, 2023 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lonsdale: Boring Company CEO Steve Davis wants to teach at UATX
“Steve Davis, who is a key leader at SpaceX, CEO of Boring Company. He's, he wants to help teach mechanical engineering, teach engineering at our university because, and he's doing it because he likes teaching at university, but also because he wants some of th…”
Joe Lonsdale Dec 13, 2023 ▶ 17:37 Ep 74: Niall Ferguson & Pano Kanelos on Building the University of Austin · Joe Lonsdale
Nov 22, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Blank: SpaceX is the largest satellite manufacturer, surpassing traditional primes
“The largest satellite manufacturer is not Northrop Grumman or Lockheed or Boeing. It's SpaceX, right? Have a factory that makes this at scale at a scale unimaginable”
Steve Blank Nov 22, 2024 ▶ 20:02 How Elon Musk’s SpaceX Is Embarrassing The U.S. Government · Joe Lonsdale
Feb 14, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2039
Tim Urban predicts humans will land on Mars around 2035
“I would, if I had to guess now, I'd say, you know, 20, 35, something around there.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 52:42 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
Apr 17, 2025 positive
Opinion
Thiel: SpaceX was the first successful template for disrupting procurement monopolies
“SpaceX was the first successful template to do it”
Peter Thiel Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 13:23 Tariffs, DOGE & Fixing America: Peter Thiel's Skeptic Solutions · Joe Lonsdale
Aug 13, 2025
Assertion Supported
Cinnamon: Satellite architecture shifted to proliferated constellations around 2019
“Around 2019, the architecture started to shift towards what they call proliferation and attritability.”
Ian Cinnamon Aug 13, 2025 ▶ 18:17 From Palantir to Space Defense: Building a $100 Billion Company · Joe Lonsdale
Aug 13, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Cinnamon: Falcon 9 Reusability Increased Launch Cadence to Weekly by 2020
“In twenty-twenty, that we were at the turning point where they started to reuse the Falcon nine rockets, and we went from being able to launch maybe once a month to about once a week.”
Ian Cinnamon Aug 13, 2025 ▶ 16:17 From Palantir to Space Defense: Building a $100 Billion Company · Joe Lonsdale
Aug 13, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Cinnamon: SpaceX launches about 2,000 Starlink satellites annually
“But he launches about 2000 per year.”
Ian Cinnamon Aug 13, 2025 ▶ 28:52 From Palantir to Space Defense: Building a $100 Billion Company · Joe Lonsdale
Aug 13, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Cinnamon: SpaceX Holds Pricing Power and Has Raised Small Satellite Prices Annually
“And in fact, the price has gone up every year since then. So they have the pricing power. Now it's still very affordable, right? Like, if you rewind to 2015 or 20 10 to launch, ah, our, like, small satellite, like Aries, you'd be looking at 10 to twenty millio…”
Ian Cinnamon Aug 13, 2025 ▶ 16:56 From Palantir to Space Defense: Building a $100 Billion Company · Joe Lonsdale
Jan 9, 2026
Assertion Supported
Palantir and SpaceX sued the US government for first defense contracts
“Palantir and Roland, SpaceX, all had to sue the government for the first big contract, because the primes were sophisticated at selling, sophisticated protecting their interests.”
Emil Michael Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 18:45 Pentagon Chief: 6 Weapons That Will Prevent WW3 · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 3, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Isaacman: Point-to-point Earth transit requires Starship, not Falcon 9
“Falcon nine, probably not. I mean, you need Starship where your upper stage you're intending to recover.”
Jared Isaacman Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 11:27 Why this Billionaire Just Took Over NASA · Joe Lonsdale
May 22, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Scott: Anthropic, Anduril, and SpaceX will be generation-defining companies
“Anthropic and Anduril and SpaceX. These are phenomenal companies. They will be generation defining companies, and it is a good strategy to give money to ATVC and Founders Fund and Thrive to invest in these companies.”
Eric Scott May 22, 2026 ▶ 16:55 AI Investing Strategy for 2026 · Joe Lonsdale
Jun 5, 2026 negative
Opinion
Nolan: Boeing's slow cost-plus programs drove him to join SpaceX
“Got to work at Boeing during college, got to see what a cost-plus government program looked like, thousands of people going extremely slow, decided I didn't want to do that, Didn't want to go back to Boeing, instead went to SpaceX”
Scott Nolan Jun 5, 2026 ▶ 2:31 SpaceX’s Secret, Nuclear's Rebirth, and the AI Power Crisis · Joe Lonsdale
Jun 5, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nolan: SpaceX can be cash-flow positive whenever it wants to be
“I think now the company, you know, has money and can be cashflow positive whenever they want to be.”
Scott Nolan Jun 5, 2026 ▶ 8:29 SpaceX’s Secret, Nuclear's Rebirth, and the AI Power Crisis · Joe Lonsdale
Jun 5, 2026
Insight
Nolan: Expediting critical-path projects pays off if cheaper than daily burn
“If you're on the critical path of schedule and you can make a one-time decision to pull in schedule by a day, like you can expedite something that's otherwise going to make us have to exist as a company for two more days, five more days, and it's worth less, i…”
Scott Nolan Jun 5, 2026 ▶ 7:12 SpaceX’s Secret, Nuclear's Rebirth, and the AI Power Crisis · Joe Lonsdale
Jun 5, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nolan: Early SpaceX employee handbook declared this is not a science experiment
“I remember getting there on day one and reading the employee handbook and on the top of page one was just a single line that was in bold. And it said this is not a science experiment.”
Scott Nolan Jun 5, 2026 ▶ 6:18 SpaceX’s Secret, Nuclear's Rebirth, and the AI Power Crisis · Joe Lonsdale
Jul 24, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Palantir, Anduril, and SpaceX sued the government for initial major contracts
“And one of the examples I use Palantir and Roland, SpaceX, all had to sue the government for their first big contract, because the primes were sophisticated at selling, sophisticated at protecting their interests.”
Emil Michael Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 20:09 America’s $700 Billion Defense Tech Rebuild
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