why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2036
Marshall: Most compute will move to space within 10 years
“I think no question within 10 years, most compute will be putting in space, which, to give you a sense, is a lot of money, like trillions, and will be bigger than any of the other space businesses today, comms, earth imaging, this is why we're getting into thi…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Marshall: Starship will drastically lower space launch costs in 2-3 years
“On the current trajectory with Starship in particular, I would expect it, the launch costs come down there in two to three years.”
Disclosure
Planet Labs launched NVIDIA GPUs in space and is testing Google TPUs
“So we're partnering, ah, with Google to launch some of their TPUs into space. We've already launched NVIDIA's, ah, some of NVIDIA's GPUs into space. We're launching Google's TPUs into space on an early test.”
Insight
Marshall: Current LLMs are blind to real-world physical data
“I like to say, like, all the cool stuff that we're doing on the, with LLMs now, is really based on just the text of the internet being absorbed into these models, which is incredibly powerful already, but they don't know shit about the real world. I call them …”
Assertion Contradicted
Marshall: Rocket launch costs dropped 4x to 5x over 10 years
“Rocket costs have come down about four or five X over the last 10 years, which has helped tremendously.”