why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Altman: Frontier AI will eventually pose significant global harm risks
“I think there will come a time in the not super distant future, like, you know, we're not talking like decades and decades from now, where AI says the frontier AI systems are capable of causing significant Global harm.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: AGI is unavoidable and will be tremendously beneficial
“I think it is unavoidable that this is going to happen. I also think it's going to be tremendously beneficial, but we do have to navigate how to get there in a reasonable way.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: AI intelligence will be sold like a metered utility
“Fundamentally, our business, and I think the business of every other model provider, is gonna look like selling tokens, but we see a future where intelligence is a utility, like electricity or water, and people buy it from us. On a meter and use it for whateve…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: AI development will shift toward continuous updates over major discrete releases
“I think I think that's like a better hint of what the world looks like, where it's not the like one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, but you just, you use an AI system, and the whole system just gets better and better fairly continuously. I think that's li…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: Advanced AI will eventually become instantaneous and too cheap to meter
“I don't know, like, when we get to intelligence too cheap to meter and so fast that it feels instantaneous to us and everything else, but I do believe we can get there for, you know, a pretty high level of intelligence, and I, it's important to us, it's clearl…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: AI will not become an arms race for training data
“I definitely don't think it'll be an arms race for data because when the models get smart enough at some point, it shouldn't be about more data, at least not for training.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: AI assistants will evolve as separate entities, not personal alter egos
“I personally like the separate entity approach better and think that's where we're going to head. And so in that sense, the thing is not you, but it's like a always available, always great, super capable assistant executive.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: Solving general AI reasoning will allow easy adaptation to specialized domains
“You clearly will need specialized simulators, connectors, pieces of data, whatever, but my intuition, and again, I don't have this like backed up with science, my intuition would be if we can figure out the core of generalized reasoning, connecting that to new…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: AI copyright debates will shift from training data to inference time
“I think the conversation has been historically very caught up on training data, but it will increasingly become more about what happens at inference time as training data becomes less valuable”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: Statutory AI laws will be obsolete within 12 to 24 months
“In 12 months, it will all be written wrong, and I don't think, even if these people were, like, true world experts, I don't think they could get it right, looking at it in 12 or 24 months.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: Future social safety nets may provide universal basic compute over income
“I wonder if the future looks something like more like universal basic compute than universal basic income. And everybody gets like a slice of GPT sevens compute and they can use it. They can resell it. They can donate it to somebody to use for cancer research.…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: World needs far more AI infrastructure than currently planned
“I think the world needs a lot more AI infrastructure, a lot more than it's currently planning to build, and with a different cost structure.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: OpenAI will achieve major algorithmic efficiency gains
“Well, we'll, we'll make huge algorithmic gains for sure, and I don't want to discount that.”
Prediction Held up
Sam Altman predicts smartphone manufacturers will add specialized AI chips
“Probably, but the phone manufacturers are going to do that for sure.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: Voice AI will not completely eliminate visual screen interfaces
“I think visual user interfaces are super good for a lot of things. And it's hard for me to imagine like a world where you never look at a screen and just use voice mode only, but I can imagine that for a lot of things.”