The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Peterson: Houthi rebels will not disrupt Suez Canal long term
“The Suez canal is too valuable in my opinion, Too valuable to civilization, to the modern world, to believe that, you know, a group of rebels, no matter how well funded they may be, is going to be able to disrupt that for any long period of time.”
Ryan Petersen Dec 23, 2023 ▶ 13:49 E158: Global trade disrupted, Adobe/Figma canceled, realtors sued, Trump blocked
Prediction Held up
Flexport CEO predicts severe retail inventory oversupply within six months
“I'm really worried that we're going to find out in six months or in some time period in the future here that people have ordered way too many goods, that these companies expected demand to stay high and keep booming. At some point, consumers start going to res…”
Ryan Petersen Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 12:17 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Petersen: IMO 2023 carbon regulations will slash capacity and spike shipping prices
“It will reduce the supply of shipping capacity and slow everything down another 30%. That, that takes place January first, 20, 23. It's getting very little attention, but to my view, it's going to be massively disrupted. If we slow everything down, reduce the …”
Ryan Petersen Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 36:57 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Peterson: Air freight prices will surge if Red Sea crisis lasts weeks
“I suspect if this lasts another week or two, you're going to see big run-ups in air freight prices.”
Ryan Petersen Dec 23, 2023 ▶ 32:32 E158: Global trade disrupted, Adobe/Figma canceled, realtors sued, Trump blocked
Prediction Held up
Petersen: Shein will generate $20B in revenue in 2022
“Yeah, I mean, actually, China's got, one of the companies to watch is Shein S-H-E-I-N. It's this Chinese kind of like the new Zara that is taking over the world. I think they're gonna do twenty billion dollars in revenue this year.”
Ryan Petersen May 24, 2022 ▶ 40:52 E82: All-In Summit: Claire Cormier Thielke on China + Q&A with Flexport's Ryan Petersen
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Petersen: Global logistics market won't clear up for next couple years
“On the logistics market, I don't see it sorting itself out for the next year the next couple of years.”
Ryan Petersen Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 19:26 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Petersen: Diverting US shipping volume to Houston will overload its port
“If everybody started to ship to Houston, guess what? Houston port won't be able to handle the volumes either.”
Ryan Petersen Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 29:36 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Prediction Held up
Petersen: Flexport on track for $5B in 2022 revenue
“First revenue was in 2014. We did two million dollars in revenue that year. We're on track this year to do five billion dollars in revenue.”
Ryan Petersen May 24, 2022 ▶ 35:03 E82: All-In Summit: Claire Cormier Thielke on China + Q&A with Flexport's Ryan Petersen
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ryan Petersen: Modernizing a US port would take five to six years
“I don't have a lot of faith, even if that came around, it would take five, six years, right? Even if it was done right, you don't get a port overnight.”
Ryan Petersen Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 42:34 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
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