The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Synthetic data will make individual media training data irrelevant
“Don't try to hold out for money on the training side of things, because, you know, we're going to create synthetic data, we're going to do all kinds of other things that are going to mean that no one's particular data is really going to matter.”
Hoffman: Musk demanded firing CEO Bill Harris right after X.com merger
“Pre the merger closing you know, Elon is, is saying, oh, I got the CEO of Bill Harris. He's the best ever. That's part of the reason why you should give so much percentage of the company to x.com and the merger, you know, dah, dah, dah, dah, dah, dah. And then…”
Hoffman: NVIDIA's AI growth run is sustainable for two years
“I basically told them and say, hey, look, it's sustainable for two years, which for you guys means forever, right?”
Hoffman predicts the bulk of AI chip demand will be for inference
“And I think there's gonna be a bunch of those kind of coming in, and the bulk of the demand will be on the inference side”
Reid Hoffman predicts AI scaling asymptotes will not occur until GPT-6
“My guess is the soonest will be GPT-Six and it might not even, it may even be after that, and that's part of what the bet that OpenAI and Anthropic and the hyperscalers are all making, is that that, that return to scale”
Hoffman: Sam Altman offered Elon Musk full participation in OpenAI's commercial round
“I know Sam offered him as much of the investment round as he wanted. Right? Like, he could have done the whole thing. He could have let it.”
Hoffman: Apple App Store is primary target for big tech antitrust
“I think that the prime candidate is likely to be, and I'm speaking as an individual and as a venture capitalist here, is Apple with the App Store, right?”