The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Elon Musk's lawsuits against OpenAI are driven by sour grapes
“Frankly, I think probably the most charitable thing to say is sour grapes because, you know, for example, I know Sam offered him as much of the investment round as he wanted. Right? Like, he could have done the whole thing. He could have let it. You know, it w…”
Synthetic data will make individual media training data irrelevant
“Don't try to hold out for money on the training side of things, because, you know, we're going to create synthetic data, we're going to do all kinds of other things that are going to mean that no one's particular data is really going to matter.”
Hoffman: FTC blocking tech M&A quells venture capital investment
“Her theory is you gotta prevent the aggregation of power, so you gotta fight every acquisition of note. And the problem, of course, is that actually quells venture capital investment.”
Hoffman funded ads highlighting RFK Jr.'s anti-vax stance to hurt Trump
“My thing was actually, in fact, making people aware of RFK's anti-vax, you know, statement, his anti-science stuff, because I thought that would be relevant in the polls in November. That, that was the actual strategy that, that I believe, and I think that wou…”
Reid Hoffman calls proposed unrealized capital gains tax definitely stupid
“Look, I think it's definitely a quelling impact, and it's definitely stupid, and definitely shouldn't happen.”
Reid Hoffman funded E. Jean Carroll's civil lawsuit against Donald Trump
“What I funded was an ability to have, you know, kind of a woman who doesn't have power, who's being threatened by a rich man with a lot of money and power to try to silence her, to have her day in court where 12 everyday Americans, right, can come to a judgmen…”
Hoffman: Musk demanded firing CEO Bill Harris right after X.com merger
“Pre the merger closing you know, Elon is, is saying, oh, I got the CEO of Bill Harris. He's the best ever. That's part of the reason why you should give so much percentage of the company to x.com and the merger, you know, dah, dah, dah, dah, dah, dah. And then…”
Hoffman: NVIDIA's AI growth run is sustainable for two years
“I basically told them and say, hey, look, it's sustainable for two years, which for you guys means forever, right?”
Hoffman predicts the bulk of AI chip demand will be for inference
“And I think there's gonna be a bunch of those kind of coming in, and the bulk of the demand will be on the inference side”
Hoffman: OpenAI was founded for open access, not open source
“From the very founding of OpenAI, I was never claiming it was gonna be open source. I was claiming it was gonna be once safety, open access and not differential or controlling access for that”
Reid Hoffman predicts AI scaling asymptotes will not occur until GPT-6
“My guess is the soonest will be GPT-Six and it might not even, it may even be after that, and that's part of what the bet that OpenAI and Anthropic and the hyperscalers are all making, is that that, that return to scale”
Hoffman: Sam Altman offered Elon Musk full participation in OpenAI's commercial round
“I know Sam offered him as much of the investment round as he wanted. Right? Like, he could have done the whole thing. He could have let it.”
Hoffman details Inflection AI deal returning 1x to investors
“With a, you know, kind of outside party, you can get paid enough in a non-exclusive IP license and an ability to selectively hire folks, and then you can dividend some of that out to investors. So investors, you know, get back a, you know, kind of a one X and …”
Hoffman: Lina Khan did good work on price cartels and non-competes
“She's done a good job on the price cartel. She did a good job on the anti-competes, both of which I think are very, very good for, you know, Competitive markets.”
Hoffman: Apple App Store is primary target for big tech antitrust
“I think that the prime candidate is likely to be, and I'm speaking as an individual and as a venture capitalist here, is Apple with the App Store, right?”
Hoffman says he instructed funded groups against blocking RFK Jr. ballot access
“I wouldn't be surprised if we look at all the money that goes to all the different organizations, if Organization X kind of had some kind of ballot thing. My voice instruction was always like, no, no, no, don't do that. That's anti-democratic.”
Hoffman: Kroger admitted to artificially raising prices during pandemic
“I think this week Kroger said, yes, we did actually artificially raise prices. To profit from the pandemic, you know”
Hoffman: Protecting the rule of law is a political red line, not taxes
“We can navigate a higher tax rate. It'll be less fast on growth and everything else, but we can still invest, create businesses, you know, et cetera. But we can't do it with You know, kind of a corroding the rule of law, right? Like, you know, I think both Dav…”
Hoffman advises investors not to short NVIDIA stock
“I definitely, I would recommend people not be short on Nvidia today.”
Reid Hoffman calls Satya Nadella the best public market CEO of this generation
“I think Satya is like the best public market CEO of our generation.”