The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dalio: U.S. states and global systems face major political fragmentation
“I think we're going to see fragmentation of states from the central government. I think you're going to see big fragmentation in the world, not just in the United States, on the failure to agree on Most things.”
Ray Dalio predicts central banks will not buy or hold Bitcoin
“Central banks are not going to want to buy Bitcoin and being able to hold it.”
Ray Dalio predicts the Federal Reserve will re-expand its balance sheet
“I think that it's likely down the road.”
Ray Dalio predicts Democrats will likely win the House midterm elections
“I think when we have, we're going to have the midterm elections, you're going to go past the midterm elections with probably that Democrats will take the house and be, and maybe, I don't know, it's going to be difficult. And you know what? Nobody can succeed b…”
Ray Dalio warns AI might eat itself by failing to generate profits
“It looks to me like AI basically is eating everything and it might eat itself. And what I mean by that is not produce adequate profits.”
Dalio: AI productivity gains won't arrive fast enough to solve US debt
“I don't think the profit impact and the financial impact on productivity is going to be nearly enough, near enough to deal with the supply demand issue that we now have.”
Dalio predicts a 'hellacious' period of crisis within 10 years
“When you talk about 10 years, there's gonna be a period in that 10 year period where it's going to, it's gonna be hellacious. In that 10 year period where, you know, the coordination of dealing with our problems will be greater and the cooperation for dealing …”
Dalio: Neutral nations like India will benefit from US-China conflict
“So as we have this conflict between the United States and China and its allies, Russia, and so on, as we see that line up, countries that are in the middle, like India, are gonna be net beneficiaries of that.”
Dalio: World will experience radical disorder over the next five years
“I think that in the next five years, I think year by year, we're going to go through a time warp. You're going to see radical disorder in the next five years as each one of those things comes to path.”
Dalio: Expect major financial, political, and tech turmoil by early 2025
“We're going to have an interesting two years between where we are now. And let's say, almost a few years, and let's say early, ah 2025, ok? And not just interesting because we're going to have unbelievable elections, and we'll see whether, how power, how we ca…”