The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 48 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dalio: US is financially better off under Trump than Biden
“Yes, I do believe we are in the financial context, because in terms of profitability and the likelihood of cutting, I think the Republicans are probably more likely to make these moves than the Democrats, but you also have to take into consideration the impact…”
Dalio: US is in an internal civil war and international war simultaneously
“We're at a civil war internally, and we're at an international war simultaneously.”
Dalio: U.S. states and global systems face major political fragmentation
“I think we're going to see fragmentation of states from the central government. I think you're going to see big fragmentation in the world, not just in the United States, on the failure to agree on Most things.”
Dalio: The WHO and WTO are obsolete as global conflicts rise
“Things like the World Health Organization, the World Trade Organization, all of those are obsolete, and so we're going to have, again, might is right, and so it's going to be a period of greater conflict.”
Dalio: The profit system alone does not direct resources adequately
“The profit system alone does not direct resources adequately.”
Ray Dalio: Gold is the second-largest reserve currency held by central banks
“Gold is not a precious metal that's speculated on, like most people have come to think of it as. It is the most established money that, it's the second largest reserve currency that central banks hold.”
Ray Dalio predicts central banks will not buy or hold Bitcoin
“Central banks are not going to want to buy Bitcoin and being able to hold it.”
Ray Dalio: 60% of Americans read below a sixth-grade level
“For example, 60% of all Americans have below a sixth grade reading level.”
Ray Dalio predicts the Federal Reserve will re-expand its balance sheet
“I think that it's likely down the road.”
Ray Dalio predicts Democrats will likely win the House midterm elections
“I think when we have, we're going to have the midterm elections, you're going to go past the midterm elections with probably that Democrats will take the house and be, and maybe, I don't know, it's going to be difficult. And you know what? Nobody can succeed b…”
Ray Dalio warns AI might eat itself by failing to generate profits
“It looks to me like AI basically is eating everything and it might eat itself. And what I mean by that is not produce adequate profits.”
Ray Dalio asserts Chinese AI technology is nearly equal to US tech
“Their technologies are almost as good as ours, because they are, they're not far behind”
Ray Dalio: Sovereign debt is unattractive during supply-demand imbalances
“In either case, you don't want to hold that debt, because either there's a debt service problem, or there's a depreciation, you get paid back with a greater supply and cheaper Money, and that is the dynamics, and that's the mechanism”
Ray Dalio: Gold is the world's third-largest reserve currency
“Gold is the third largest reserve currency, by the way. Dollars euros, gold, and then yen.”
Dalio: China is behind in AI chips but ahead in applications
“Like, I think the Chinese are a bit behind in the chips and But they're ahead in the applications.”
Dalio: Expensive great companies are worse investments than cheap bad companies
“A great company that gets expensive is much worse than a bad company that's really cheap.”
Dalio: AI productivity gains won't arrive fast enough to solve US debt
“I don't think the profit impact and the financial impact on productivity is going to be nearly enough, near enough to deal with the supply demand issue that we now have.”
Dalio predicts a 'hellacious' period of crisis within 10 years
“When you talk about 10 years, there's gonna be a period in that 10 year period where it's going to, it's gonna be hellacious. In that 10 year period where, you know, the coordination of dealing with our problems will be greater and the cooperation for dealing …”
Dalio: Losing the technology war means losing the military war
“You can't lose the technology war because you'll lose the military war.”
Dalio: Global empires cycle over 250 years with 10-20 year transitions
“As you can see, they transpired in overlapping cycles that lasted about 250 years, with 10 to 20 year transition periods between them.”
Dalio: Superpower transitions are typically periods of major conflict
“Typically, these transitions have been periods of great conflict, because leading powers don't decline without a fight.”
Dalio: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is India's Deng Xiaoping
“I think Modi is a Deng Xiaoping.”
Dalio: Neutral nations like India will benefit from US-China conflict
“So as we have this conflict between the United States and China and its allies, Russia, and so on, as we see that line up, countries that are in the middle, like India, are gonna be net beneficiaries of that.”
Dalio: World will experience radical disorder over the next five years
“I think that in the next five years, I think year by year, we're going to go through a time warp. You're going to see radical disorder in the next five years as each one of those things comes to path.”
Dalio: Expect major financial, political, and tech turmoil by early 2025
“We're going to have an interesting two years between where we are now. And let's say, almost a few years, and let's say early, ah 2025, ok? And not just interesting because we're going to have unbelievable elections, and we'll see whether, how power, how we ca…”
Ray Dalio: Half of the $2T US deficit goes to interest payments
“We now have that two trillion dollar deficit. Half of that is interest payments, plus we have to roll over nine trillion dollars of debt That has been accumulated and is maturing.”
Ray Dalio advises investors to hold 5% to 15% in gold
“If you didn't know what gold was likely to do, and you had no view on gold, one should have between five and 15% of their portfolio in gold because of the fact of how it works with the other components.”
Dalio: US COVID stimulus delivered more money than total lost income
“The government wanted to, and actually did, deliver a lot more money to people, companies, than there was a loss of income.”
Dalio: All commodities decline in real terms over long periods
“Commodities, by the way, in real terms, all commodities, every single commodity, in real terms over long decline, long periods of time have declined because of productivity.”
Dalio: Crypto is easily taxed because governments track ownership
“Crypt is very easily taxed. You know, in other words, the government knows where it is, and who's doing what, and so on, and it's also an effective Asset to tax, but it has, you know, benefits too.”
Dalio: I hold Bitcoin as a diversifier, but I am a gold guy
“Yeah, I have some. Not, not nearly as much as gold. I'm, you know, that's kind of my diversifier. I try to find what are the, I have to have some, I'm, but I'm a gold guy much more than I am a Bitcoin guy.”
Dalio: Roughly 70% of U.S. government expenditures cannot be cut
“Roughly, 70% of government expenditures are, you can't cut.”
Dalio: People do not realize that taxes and tariffs act as inflation
“People don't think of taxes as inflation, but taxes are inflation.”
Dalio: Studying 1938 dynamics enabled Bridgewater to profit in 2008
“What happened in 1938, in terms of the depression leading to the wars and so on, and the interest rates hitting zero, is the exact same thing that happened in 2008. It was because I studied that, that I, we were able to make a lot of money in the 2008 financia…”
Dalio: Acts of nature have toppled more empires than anything else
“Acts of nature, in particular droughts, floods, and pandemics, and they killed more people, and they toppled more empires, and changed more world orders than anything”
Ray Dalio: Four 1930s democracies chose to become autocracies
“So, in the thirties, four major democracies, because of that dynamic, chose to be, their parliaments chose to be autocracies. That happened in Germany, Italy, Spain, and Japan.”
Dalio: India has highest potential 10-year growth among top 22 economies
“India has the highest potential growth rate.”
Ray Dalio: China faces a debt and restructuring problem
“They've got a debt problem, they have a debt restructuring problem”
Dalio: Pre-WW1 and WW2 profits made the US the world's richest country
“It was before, on World War II and World War I, the United States became the richest country because of the money it made before it entered the war.”
Dalio: U.S. opportunity and educational gaps are wider than ever
“So if you take all those measures and so on, the gaps in those things are greater than they have ever been.”
Ray Dalio: US spends $7T against $5T revenue, running 40% deficit
“Basically, it's projected to spend about seven trillion dollars, take in about five trillion dollars, so it's running a 40% Deficit, 40% of its spending. It's been running deficits for a long time, so it has a debt that is 600%, six times the amount of money t…”
Dalio: The biggest debt crisis red flag is bondholders dumping supply
“The key spot is when the debt service becomes large, and then, like, the real red flag, the biggest red flag, is when there's then the selling of the debt beyond the new supply, but the holders of it sell it, and then you can see it in the market action, becau…”
Dalio: China accounts for 33% of global manufacturing output
“They own 33% of all world manufactured goods, which is more than the combined U.S. German and Japanese manufactured goods, Chinese produce more.”
Ray Dalio: US, China, and India are shifting the global world order
“I think the basic picture in China, ah, the United States, the emergence of India, and so on, is when the world order is going to change in a very profound way.”
Ray Dalio predicts central banks will print money during the next downturn
“So I think you're going to see, in the next downturn, another move to print money.”
Dalio: 22% of Connecticut high schoolers are failing, absent, or dropped out
“22% of the high school students in Connecticut either have dropped out of high school or are failing classes with absentee rates of greater than 25%.”
Dalio: Japanese bondholders lost 80% vs gold and 60% vs US bonds
“To take a Japan, for example, if you were a holder of Japanese bonds, you lost about 80% of your money relative to gold, and about 60% relative to U.S. Bonds, because you received an interest rate that was three percent less than the corresponding interest rat…”