The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Thiel claims Kamala Harris will win a close election by cheating
“If it's like going to be a razor thin close election, then I'm pretty sure Kamala will win because they will cheat. They will fortify it. They will steal the ballots.”
Thiel predicts the 2024 presidential election will not be close
“My one contrarian view on the election is that it's not going to be close. You know, most presidential elections aren't, and you know, one side just breaks. You know, 20, twenty-sixteen, twenty-twenty, we're super close, but two-thirds of the elections aren't,…”
Thiel: Ukraine and Gaza conflicts are warmups to a China-Taiwan war
“You know, I think we're sort of sleepwalking into Armageddon with you know, the Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza are just sort of the warmups to the China-Taiwan war.”
Thiel: Declaring US won't defend Taiwan would prompt immediate Chinese invasion
“If you if you if you say we want some guardrails and we won't defend Taiwan, then they'd get invaded right away.”
Thiel predicts US will ban TikTok within 24 hours of Taiwan invasion
“TikTok will be banned, 24 hours after the Taiwan invasion.”
Thiel predicts US and Chinese economies will decouple
“My intuition for, you know, what is going to happen without making any normative judgments at all is it is going to decouple.”