why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
Arora: Google will be the first $10 trillion company
“I think Google's underrated. I think it's going to be the first 10 trillion dollar company in our lifetime.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nikesh Arora: Analytical SaaS companies are over
“If you're an analytical SaaS company, it's over.”
Prediction Held up
Arora: Vulnerability-finding AI will be public within three months
“I think we're three months away, if not already there, from this being available in the wild.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Nikesh Arora: Enterprise data storage needs will grow 10x in three years
“We are going to need 10 times the data stored enterprise than we have today.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nikesh Arora: Systems of record software will be reinvented within five years
“So I think the whole system of work System of record gets reinvented the next five years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Arora: AI base models will become a commoditized utility layer
“I still believe models are going to become a utility layer. You'll be able to buy intelligence on the fly”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Arora predicts 5 million apps will become AI agents within 10 years
“I think five million apps will be redesigned in the next 10 years. They all become agents.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Arora predicts 10 years for US to fulfill hardware supply chain needs
“In 10 years.”