why aren't all 39 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Mahan: Mississippi and Louisiana beat California in reading proficiency for low-income kids
“Mississippi and Louisiana are doing a better job of helping low-income kids get on grade level for reading than we are in the very well-resourced, very progressive state of California.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mahan: California will see MAGA-like movement if Democrats fail to deliver
“If the Democratic Party doesn't start to wake up and be more responsive to the needs of our constituents and deliver with the resources we've got, we're gonna see the pendulum swing all the way the other way, and you're going to see a MAGA-like movement happen…”
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: California state regulations drove out most oil refineries over ten years
“The state has lost most of its refineries over the last decade because we have intentionally regulated them out of existence.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Matt Mahan predicts CA wealth tax will burden middle class, not billionaires
“The dirty secret of this proposal is that it won't be the billionaires who pay Higher taxes. It'll be middle class and working families who are left holding the bag.”
Assertion Contradicted
Mahan: California state spending grew by $150 billion over six years
“We have increased spending in state government by 75%. Put that in perspective, that's a hundred and fifty billion dollars more this year than six years ago.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: San Jose led California in crime reduction and is the safest big U.S. city
“We have led the state in reducing crime and become the safest big city in the country.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: San Jose reduced unsheltered homelessness by about a third recently
“We've reduced unsheltered homelessness, meaning people living outside in tents and vehicles by about a third in the last few years.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: 75% of state audit recommendations are never implemented
“Right now, 75% of the audit recommendations from the state auditor never get implemented.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: San Jose reduced homeless unit costs to $85,000 using sleeping cabins
“In San Jose, we had to move away from spending a million dollars a door to build a brand new apartment to get someone off the streets and pivot to buying sleeping cabins that can be deployed in small communities on publicly owned land, hooked up to utilities, …”
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: San Jose added 2,000 shelter beds and led California in reducing unsheltered homelessness
“We've added over 2000 shelter beds in my first three years as mayor, and led the state in reducing unsheltered homelessness”
Assertion Supported
Mahan: Defect liability laws prevent California from building condos
“We're not building condos in California, partly because construction defect liability allows a trial lawyer to come in in year nine of a project And if they see that the paint is starting to bubble, they'll file a suit, and they care about the fees.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mahan: California regulators can cut per-square-foot housing costs by a third
“We should be able to drop the cost on a per square foot basis by at least a third with actions that are within our control as regulators.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mahan: Many Democratic legislators privately admit California's system is broken
“A lot of Democratic legislators, many of whom I know personally in private, will admit that things are broken, that things aren't working.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mahan: One-third of unhoused decline shelter due to severe addiction
“The good news? Two thirds of people say yes. The bad news, the other third, is so deep in the throes of addiction to substances like meth and fentanyl that they can't make a rational decision about their own self-care.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: California has suffered over $1 trillion in capital flight
“We've seen over a trillion dollars of capital flight.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mahan: California is approaching an irreversible point of no return
“I think the state is heading toward an inflection point past which there may be no return.”
Assertion Supported
Mahan: Non-residents can file lawsuits under California's CEQA environmental law
“Anybody can sue under CEQA. You don't even have to be a resident of California to sue under CEQA.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: California fraudulent pandemic unemployment claims exceeded $30 billion
“During the last five years or so, roughly during the pandemic, unemployment claims in California that were fraudulent totaled over thirty billion dollars.”
Assertion Contradicted
Mahan: Organized labor is the biggest spender on lobbying in Sacramento
“The single biggest spender in Sacramento when it comes to advocacy lobbying and elections Is organized labor and particularly public sector unions.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: 50,000 people died on California streets over past decade
“Over the last decade, we've had 50,000 people die on our streets in California about Half from overdose and suicide.”
Assertion Supported
Mahan: Over 40% of America's unsheltered homeless live in California
“And yet we lead the nation in unsheltered homelessness over 40% of the people living outside in tents in the entire country live in California, which is only about 12% of the country's population.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan was the first California Democratic mayor to endorse Proposition 36
“With Prop. 36, I was the first Democratic mayor in the state to come out in support of Prop. 36.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: Texas power is cheaper and cleaner than California energy
“Texas is providing dramatically cheaper power that is cleaner than California.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mahan: At least 90% of California homeowners can be affordably insured
“90% of homeowners, maybe more, can be covered by private insurance affordably”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mahan: State investment in vegetation management will lower insurance premiums long-term
“As governor, I would create a task force that just focuses on fixing the insurance market, and if the state will invest in vegetation management to reduce the risk of catastrophic loss, you're gonna see premiums go down over the long term.”
Assertion Supported
Mahan: California employee headcount grew over 20% despite flat state population
“The state's population has stayed flat over the last six years. Spending is up 75%, as you point out, and headcount in state employees is up, I believe, over 20%.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Matt Mahan: Sheltering 100k+ homeless individuals dramatically reduces healthcare burden
“Getting a hundred and a thousand plus people off of our streets and into shelter dramatically reduces the burden on our healthcare system.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: One-time municipal fees can add 20% to housing project costs
“When it comes to housing, just to slightly switch topics, the fees that cities can assess, one-time fees can add 20% to the cost of a project.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mahan: San Jose operates on one-third less revenue than neighboring cities
“Our revenue is about a third less than some of our neighboring cities, and we're delivering huge increases in sheltering people, getting housing built, reducing crime”
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: Silicon Valley created eight jobs for every home built over 20 years
“Over the last 20 years, this incredible economy here, Engine of innovation for our country and really the world has created about eight jobs for every one new home we've built.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mahan: Modular construction cuts home costs by 20% and speeds timelines 50%
“They can bring down the cost per unit by 20%, speed up overall project timelines by up to 50% by just industrializing the production of housing.”
Assertion Supported
Mahan: California sometimes pays Arizona to take excess solar power
“Power is so cheap and abundant in California that we sometimes pay Arizona to take our excess solar”
Assertion Supported
Mahan: California spends $8 on fire response for every $1 on prevention
“We spend eight dollars in fire response and recovery for every one dollar we spend on prevention”
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: 19% of San Jose general fund goes to pension debt
“Even today, after pension reform, 19% of our general fund in San Jose this year goes to paying an unfunded pension liability that just comes off the top.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2043
Mahan: San Jose will clear pension debt by early 2040s
“By the early 20 forties, San Jose will have cleared the debt.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Matt Mahan: Price transparency and competition could lower healthcare costs 5-10%
“Price transparency and competition could bring down costs in healthcare by five to 10%.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mahan: Most Californians spend over a third of income on housing
“Most Californians are spending over a third of their income on housing, many spending over half of their income on housing”
Assertion Supported
Mahan: Half of public school students lack grade-level reading or math proficiency
“It does, though, get back to this basic point that we need our public education system to teach people to think critically when half of our kids aren't on grade level for reading or math proficiency.”
Assertion Supported
Mahan: California governor appoints 3,000 people running regulatory commissions
“The governor appoints 3000 people who run All of these commissions that have incredible discretion over how to implement regulations”