The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Rabois: US educational metrics uniformly declined since Department of Education's 1979 creation
“Every single educational stat has got worse in the United States since the department was created.”
Keith Rabois Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 1:22:27 Grok 4 Wows, The Bitter Lesson, Third Party, AI Browsers, SCOTUS backs POTUS on RIFs
Assertion Partly supported
Raboy: TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew lied to Congress about data access
“There are people in China monitoring what certain people in the United States are doing, and the CEO lied under oath to congressional committees about this, and the evidence is now in the public domain.”
Keith Rabois Dec 13, 2024 ▶ 55:28 Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC
Prediction Held up
Rabois: A flipped Congress will subpoena Twitter over foreign government influence
“But the government, if the U.S. Congress is turned over, there's gonna be a lot of subpoenas flying over to Twitter, because there are absolutely foreign governments influencing some of those decisions at Twitter.”
Keith Rabois May 26, 2022 ▶ 37:26 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
Assertion Partly supported
Rabois: Florida abortion law is more permissive than France and Germany
“It's actually more permissive than any European country. But nobody knows that. France actually only allows abortion up to 14 weeks. Germany is like 16. So we're 20 here, so we're more liberal than Europe.”
Keith Rabois May 26, 2022 ▶ 42:00 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
Assertion Supported
Rabois: Capping US spending at 2019 levels would yield budget surplus
“Because if you just held federal spending to 2019 levels, 2019 is not like, you know, decades ago. Literally with our current tax revenues, we would be in a surplus.”
Keith Rabois Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 1:06:28 Grok 4 Wows, The Bitter Lesson, Third Party, AI Browsers, SCOTUS backs POTUS on RIFs
Assertion Contradicted
Raboy: Trump is sole president in 60 years with declining net worth
“I think it's in the last 60 years, Trump is the only president whose net worth went down after office.”
Keith Rabois Dec 13, 2024 ▶ 23:20 Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Raboy: Quantum computing is at least a decade away from commercial applications
“First of all, I think there's a long time before this becomes a commercial product or application of any sort. So, you know, it's great that they're taking money, but think about it as like almost like Stanford takes money or the U S government funds basic res…”
Keith Rabois Dec 13, 2024 ▶ 35:53 Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC
Prediction Held up
Rabois: Elon Musk acquiring Twitter will be a bad financial investment
“Yes, Elon should buy Twitter to save the world, but it's not going to be a good financial investment.”
Keith Rabois May 26, 2022 ▶ 36:11 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
Assertion Contradicted
Rabois: NYC recorded zero July 4th shootings for the first time ever
“You know, as you probably heard on July fourth was the first time in recorded history that there were no shootings or no murders. In New York on that day.”
Keith Rabois Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 2:18 Grok 4 Wows, The Bitter Lesson, Third Party, AI Browsers, SCOTUS backs POTUS on RIFs
Assertion Supported
Rabois: Science-focused AI models uncover biological connections humans never identified
“If you look at foundational models that just apply to science, there's lots of things about the human body, let's say in health biology, that we humans don't actually understand all the connections. Like, why do we do X? Why do some people get cancer? Why do o…”
Keith Rabois Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 37:20 Grok 4 Wows, The Bitter Lesson, Third Party, AI Browsers, SCOTUS backs POTUS on RIFs
Assertion Supported
Keith Raboy: Chinese law mandates sharing user data with CCP
“So there's a law, the fundamental problem is in China, there's a law that says if you're a Chinese company, upon request of the CCP, you must provide all user data.”
Keith Rabois Dec 13, 2024 ▶ 56:36 Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC
Assertion Supported
Rabois: Three of my first five investments became public companies
“My first five investments, three of them became public companies”
Keith Rabois May 26, 2022 ▶ 1:05:44 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
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