why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
China will iterate on eVTOLs faster due to forward-leaning regulations
“The regulatory pathway there is more forward-leaning, I think, as Adam pointed out. And I think you're gonna see more, more rapid iteration, iteration.”
Assertion Partly supported
Joby Aviation achieved aircraft noise under 45 decibels in overflight
“We want to be below 45 decibels in over flight. And we've achieved both of those goals.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Bevirt: Joby will launch commercial service in UAE in 2025
“So I think we're on a timeline which we publicly announced to begin commercial service. In the UAE next year.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bevirt: eVTOL technology has off-the-charts bipartisan support in Washington
“The amount of bipartisan support on, on both sides of the aisle in Washington is off the charts.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2029
Bevirt: Remote pilots will eventually manage multiple autonomous eVTOLs at once
“A pilot can, over time, begin to operate multiple aircraft at the same time.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bevirt: eVTOLs will initially be game changers on select routes
“And so there's only going to be select routes where this is a game changer because of the multimodal nature.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Upcoming FAA rules will accelerate small personal aircraft development
“I think the good news here in the US is that the FAA is in the process of releasing something called Mosaic. Which for aircraft that are smaller than ours aircraft with, like, two passengers in them, more of a personal ownership type of thing, that's gonna all…”
Assertion Supported
Joby is certifying its eVTOL aircraft with 300 Wh/kg battery cells
“The batteries that we're certifying our aircraft with are have a specific energy of about 300 watt hours per kilogram.”
Assertion Supported
Bevirt: eVTOL battery specific energy almost doubled in 15 years
“When I started the company in, in 2009, we had cells that had sufficient specific power to do a vertical takeoff, but also we're at about a 170 watt hours a kilogram. So we've almost doubled the specific energy in the cells over the last 15 years.”