The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Graham Allison: Israeli political involvement could trigger long-term U.S. backlash
“Interfering in American politics invites pushback. So I think this could have a big long-term negative effect, both in the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, especially younger, under younger people.”
Allison: US would lose a direct contest against China without allies
“If the U.S. Had to play this game only U.S. Versus China, I think we lose.”
Allison: Avoiding US-China war requires accommodation of China's influence
“Will there come to be some degree of difference and accommodation, if a war is to be avoided? And the answer is yes.”
Graham Allison: Trump will declare Iran conflict over before China trip
“So my Inclination, again, if we were just doing prediction markets, is that he's going to find a way to declare this over before then, because he needs a little time to get his mind set on that.”
Allison: Armed factions, not democracy, will likely succeed Iran's current regime
“If I were betting it, it'll end up that the guys with the guns will in some version be the next iteration.”
Graham Allison estimates a 5% chance of China attacking Taiwan through 2027
“I think the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan this year or next year or even into 28, but let me just do 26 and 27, absent some major provocation by Taiwan or some other third incident is very low. I'd put it at about where the prediction markets are, five per…”
Graham Allison: South Korea or Japan may build nuclear arsenals if trends continue
“If things are on the current path, well, maybe South Korea or Japan will have nuclear arsenal in their backyard.”
Allison: Current US wealth concentration is politically unsustainable in a democracy
“It's just not stable in a democracy. If everybody gets a vote, And if the top 10 or 20% are taking 80% or 70% of the pie, that's not Stable and sustainable, I think.”
Allison: China will become the biggest power in world history
“China is not just another great power, but it's going to be the biggest power in the history of the world.”
Allison: 90% chance no US-China war in next four years
“So if you ask me bottom line quickly, a war between the US and China in the year ahead? No. I'll give you 99% of that one. War between the US and China the next four years? No. I'd say 90%. Ah, no.”
Graham Allison: China may surpass US GDP at market exchange rates
“So it's quite plausible that China will have a larger GDP even by market exchange rates than the U.S.”