The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 36 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Graham Allison: No evidence Iran was about to attack U.S. or acquire nuclear weapon
“The arguments that were made that that Trump has actually repeated that Iran was about to attack us, I see no evidence for that. That Iran was about to get a nuclear weapon, I see no evidence for that. That Iran was building an ICBM that was going to attack th…”
Graham Allison: The U.S. military conflict with Iran is Netanyahu's war
“This is Bibi's war. If your reader or your listeners don't remember Moby Dick, they should go look at it again. Ahab had this fixation, obsession, with the white whale, and tried to find a way to kill the white whale whenever he could. For the last two decades…”
Graham Allison: Israeli political involvement could trigger long-term U.S. backlash
“Interfering in American politics invites pushback. So I think this could have a big long-term negative effect, both in the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, especially younger, under younger people.”
Graham Allison: Taiwan is inherently indefensible against a determined Chinese invasion
“Taiwan is halfway around the world, as President Trump says, and 90 miles off the shore of China, and we're far away, and we have a lot of other things to worry about, so it's a little bit like Cuba. So inherently indefensible if China were seriously determine…”
Allison: Modi is undermining India's democracy by oppressing minorities
“Modi is basically undermining the multi-ethnic democracy that Nehru had built by Getting support from the majority by oppressing the minority.”
Allison: US would lose a direct contest against China without allies
“If the U.S. Had to play this game only U.S. Versus China, I think we lose.”
Allison: Avoiding US-China war requires accommodation of China's influence
“Will there come to be some degree of difference and accommodation, if a war is to be avoided? And the answer is yes.”
Graham Allison: Trump will declare Iran conflict over before China trip
“So my Inclination, again, if we were just doing prediction markets, is that he's going to find a way to declare this over before then, because he needs a little time to get his mind set on that.”
Allison: Armed factions, not democracy, will likely succeed Iran's current regime
“If I were betting it, it'll end up that the guys with the guns will in some version be the next iteration.”
Allison: Patriot missile defense systems intended for Ukraine were redirected to the Middle East
“All the patriots that were to hope to prevent missile strikes from Russia on Ukraine are now In the Middle East.”
Graham Allison estimates a 5% chance of China attacking Taiwan through 2027
“I think the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan this year or next year or even into 28, but let me just do 26 and 27, absent some major provocation by Taiwan or some other third incident is very low. I'd put it at about where the prediction markets are, five per…”
Graham Allison: 90 to 95 nations could develop nuclear arms within two years
“Today, 90, 95 states could have nuclear weapons in a year or two if they decided to build them.”
Graham Allison: South Korea or Japan may build nuclear arsenals if trends continue
“If things are on the current path, well, maybe South Korea or Japan will have nuclear arsenal in their backyard.”
Allison: Current US wealth concentration is politically unsustainable in a democracy
“It's just not stable in a democracy. If everybody gets a vote, And if the top 10 or 20% are taking 80% or 70% of the pie, that's not Stable and sustainable, I think.”
Allison: China will become the biggest power in world history
“China is not just another great power, but it's going to be the biggest power in the history of the world.”
Allison: 90% chance no US-China war in next four years
“So if you ask me bottom line quickly, a war between the US and China in the year ahead? No. I'll give you 99% of that one. War between the US and China the next four years? No. I'd say 90%. Ah, no.”
Graham Allison: China may surpass US GDP at market exchange rates
“So it's quite plausible that China will have a larger GDP even by market exchange rates than the U.S.”
Allison: A US-China war in the next decade would spark accidentally
“If there's a war between the U.S. And China in the next year, or four years, or decade, how is it gonna happen, in my view, the most likely? Not this way. It's gonna happen the same way the last war happened.”
Allison: Tencent AI rivals GPT-4 in science but fails on political queries
“Tencent's AI machine is a pretty good competitor for GPT-IV in the science or math, but if you ask a question about, you know how do freedom-centered societies perform, it can't answer that question, because the thought of Xi Jinping says this.”
Allison: The US would not have invaded Iraq if Gore became president
“If Gore, if the count had gone right in Florida, and Gore had been president, would we have gone into Iraq? No.”
Allison: Rebuilding Defense Department would yield double performance at half cost
“And in fact, I think if you were able to greenfield, ah, the Defense Department today for half the money, you could get twice the bang for the buck.”
Graham Allison: Military regime change historically fails compared to target destruction
“Breaking something's a lot easier than building something, and destroying targets is something that our military knows very well how to do. Building a new regime, regime change, is something that we know historically doesn't work very well, at least in Iraq an…”
Graham Allison: Netanyahu is a magician with impressive political agility
“And I think it's, I mean, I think Bibi is a magician. I think his single-mindedness, ah, is impressive. I think his agility in making arguments and developing arguments is impressive.”
Allison: US can achieve strategic goals in Greenland without owning it
“We can, we the U.S. Can get everything we want from Greenland without invading it or owning it.”
Graham Allison: Competition in China's economy is fiercer than Silicon Valley's
“Their economy is essentially fiercely capitalist. I mean, you have the One of my friends has gladiatorial conflict that makes the competition in Silicon Valley look, look tame as the, you know, as the parties fight each other.”
Graham Allison: Kim Jong-un has over 100 nuclear warheads that reach US
“Kim Jong-un have now more than a hundred nuclear warheads and missiles that can reach the American homeland”
Allison: 12 of 16 historic rising-vs-ruling power rivalries ended in war
“In the book I look at the last 500 years, there's 16 times we've seen a rapidly rising power threaten a colossal ruling power. Think of Germany's rise, beginning of the 20th century, and the challenge to Great Britain, that became World War I. So most often, o…”
Allison: Without post-9/11 operations, multiple 9/11-scale attacks would have occurred
“Had thousands of people not been taken off the chessboard, you would have seen many repeats of nine 11.”
Graham Allison: China's economy is 25% larger than US by PPP
“Today, by pursuing power parity, it's 25% larger.”
Allison: US is on track to reach a resolution over Greenland
“I think we're on track to a resolution there.”
Graham Allison: 80 years without major power war is longest peace since Rome
“80 years. This is the longest piece in recorded history since Rome.”
Graham Allison: China's GDP grew from 10% to 75% of US GDP
“China was, at the beginning of the century, 10% of the U.S. GDP. Today it's three quarters of the U.S. GDP.”
Allison: US leaders in 2000 did not foresee China matching US GDP
“The idea that this might work so successfully that China could become, could come to have an economy as large as ours, Didn't occur to anybody at the time.”
Allison: Natural gas supplies about half of Taiwan's electricity
“About half of their electricity comes from their natural gas”