why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schmidt: Most of the world will use Chinese open-weight AI models
“China is competing with open weights and open training data, and the U.S. Is largely and majority focused on closed weights, closed data. That means that the majority of the world, think of it as the Belt and Road Initiative, are going to use Chinese models an…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Eric Schmidt predicts domain-specific AI superintelligence in 6 to 7 years
“I don't agree with the three years, but I do agree that it'll be maybe six or seven years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schmidt: AI recursive self-improvement is 5 to 10 years away
“Not yet. I'm, I've funded a number of startups which claim to be close to it, but of course these are startups and you never know, which tells me it's five, 10 years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schmidt: Future warfare will eliminate most fixed military infrastructure
“The rough way in which war will evolve is first things will have to be very, very mobile and very much not in fixed places. This takes out most of the military infrastructure that exists in the world.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schmidt: Drone warfare will involve destructive waves before human land invasion
“I think that the way robot war, essentially, drone war will occur is there will be these destructive waves, but eventually humans are going to have to cross a line. They're going to have to invade.”