The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Eric Schmidt: Google prioritized work-life balance over winning
“Google decided that work-life balance and going home early and working from home was more important than winning.”
Schmidt: Most of the world will use Chinese open-weight AI models
“China is competing with open weights and open training data, and the U.S. Is largely and majority focused on closed weights, closed data. That means that the majority of the world, think of it as the Belt and Road Initiative, are going to use Chinese models an…”
Schmidt: $5K drones render $30M military tanks obsolete
“Things like tanks of which we're now building a whole bunch more, even stronger tanks here in America, don't make any sense in a world where a two kilogram payload from a well-armed drone can destroy the tank. It's called the kill ratio, and that drone costs r…”
Schmidt: Chinese tech companies rely on illegal 996 work schedules
“The Chinese work-life balance consists of nine, nine, six, which is nine a.m. To nine p.m. Six days a week. By the way, the Chinese have clarified that this is illegal. However, they all do it.”
Schmidt: Chinese AI firms lack capital markets to fund $100M+ AGI data centers
“They're not pursuing crazy AGI strategies. Partly because of the hardware limitations that you've put in place, but partly because the depth of their capital markets don't exist. They can't raise, based on a wing and a prey, or a hundred million dollars, or a …”
Eric Schmidt predicts domain-specific AI superintelligence in 6 to 7 years
“I don't agree with the three years, but I do agree that it'll be maybe six or seven years.”
Schmidt: AI recursive self-improvement is 5 to 10 years away
“Not yet. I'm, I've funded a number of startups which claim to be close to it, but of course these are startups and you never know, which tells me it's five, 10 years.”
Schmidt: Remote work hinders career growth for young tech workers
“I am not in favor of essentially working at home. I, and the reason, I mean, many of you guys all work at home to some degree, but your careers are already established. But think about a 20 something who has to learn how the world works.”
Schmidt: Future warfare will eliminate most fixed military infrastructure
“The rough way in which war will evolve is first things will have to be very, very mobile and very much not in fixed places. This takes out most of the military infrastructure that exists in the world.”