The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Michael warns China is stealing US AI models to unguardrail them
“Your models are getting stolen by the Chinese. They're going to unguard rail them and use them against us.”
Emil Michael Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 27:25 War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Emil Michael: No scenario for protracted U.S. ground war in Iran
“In terms of boots on the ground, there's no scenario where we have some protracted boots on the ground, Afghanistan, Iraq too, like scenario.”
Emil Michael Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 5:31 War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Prediction Held up
Emil Michael: Anthropic will be excluded from Pentagon AI contracts under current posture
“And Throbic's not going to be one of them if they continue sort of with their sort of posture.”
Emil Michael Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 1:05:49 War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Emil Michael: Anthropic's AI coding lead will disappear in 12 months
“I believe in 12 months codex is not going to be close.”
Emil Michael Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 55:04 War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Emil Michael: Modern warfare is shifting from $20B carriers to low-cost attritable systems
“Generally I do think warfare is going from big carrier ships that cost twenty billion dollars and a decade and a half to build To mass attributable, low cost things.”
Emil Michael Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 1:14:19 War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Emil Michael: Future sophisticated drone warfare will feature AI-controlled swarms
“I mean, it's, I believe that a sophisticated drone war is going to be drone swarms controlled by AI to some degree or another, right?”
Emil Michael Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 20:54 War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
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