The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 136 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 9 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Musk: Almost every conspiracy theory about Twitter turned out true
“Almost every conspiracy theory that people had about Twitter turned out to be true. So far, they've all turned out to be true, and if not, more true than people thought.”
Musk: UK released violent offenders to imprison people over social media posts
“They have, in a lot of cases, released people who have committed violent crimes in order to imprison people who have simply made posts on social media.”
Musk: Larry Page called him a 'speciesist' for favoring human over machine intelligence
“He called me a speciest like racist or something for being pro human intelligence instead of machine intelligence.”
Musk: AI could be smarter than any individual human by 2026
“I think that we might have AI smarter than any single human at anything as soon as next year.”
Musk: AI will probably be smarter than all humans combined by 2030
“And then probably within five, like say, 2030, probably AI is smarter than the sum of all humans.”
Musk: Actions of the West are indistinguishable from suicide
“Let's just say that the actions of the West are indistinguishable from suicide.”
Musk: Removing religion creates destructive substitutes like the 'woke mind virus'
“And if you take away religion, then I think you actually, you get something in its place which is actually worse than what was there before. I mean, it's like destructive, basically. You get like the white work mind virus filling, filling the hole that religio…”
Musk: Mars could become self-sustaining in roughly 25 to 30 years
“I think it can be done in, in 30 years. Provided there's an exponential increase in the tonnage to Mars, with each successive Mars transfer windows, which is every two years. So every two years, the planets align, and you can transfer to Mars. So I think in, R…”
Musk: AI and robotics will drive cost of goods toward zero
“Anything that is a manufactured good or provided service will, I think, with the advent of AI plus robotics, that the cost of goods and services will be, will Trend to zero. Like, I'm not saying it'd be actually zero, but it'll be, everyone will be able to hav…”
Elon Musk claims he has done more for the environment than anyone
“It would be fair to say that, therefore, as a leader of the company, I've done more for the environment than everyone else, any single human on Earth.”
Musk: Starlink coverage in Crimea was disabled due to US sanctions
“At the time this happened, the region around, you Crimea was actually turned off. Now, the reason it was turned off was, actually, originally, was because the United States had sanctions and we're not allowed to actually, and that includes Crimea in the sancti…”
Musk: Would have activated Starlink in Crimea if requested by Biden
“If I had received a presidential directive to turn it on, I would have done so, because I do regard the president as the chief executive officer of the country, whether I want that position If I'm not, I still respect the office, and so, if, you know, if we've…”
Musk: China will likely use military force to incorporate Taiwan
“If one is to take China's policy literally, and probably one should then there will be some forceful force will be used for, you know to incorporate Taiwan into China.”
Elon Musk estimates at least 20% of Twitter accounts are bots
“I think it's some number that is probably at least four or five times that number. I'd say at if you did sort of the lowest estimate would be probably 20%. And this is a bunch of quite smart outside firms have done analysis of Twitter and looked at the sort of…”
Elon Musk: Twitter has a very far-left political bias
“The reality is that, that Twitter at this point, you know, has a very far left bias.”
Musk: Democratic Party is overly controlled by unions and trial lawyers
“The Democrat party is overly, overly controlled by the unions and by the trial lawyers, particularly the class action lawyers.”
Musk refuses to pay agreed Twitter price if public filings are inaccurate
“So, in, in making the Twitter offer, I was obviously reliant upon the truth and accuracy of their public filings, and if those filings are not accurate. It's simply not, that's, that it's not, you can't pay the same price for something that is much worse than …”
Musk calls Tesla co-founder Martin Eberhard his worst colleague ever
“There's still this guy, Mark Eberhard, who's the worst guy I've ever worked with, who tries to claim like sold credit essentially for creating a Tesla.”
Elon Musk: Declining birth rates are the single biggest threat to civilization
“This, by the way, is I think the biggest single threat to civilization right now is the.”
Musk: Grokopedia is more neutral, accurate, and detailed than Wikipedia
“We used that latest version of Grok to create Grokopedia which I think is much more, it's not just, I think, more neutral and more accurate than Wikipedia, but it actually has a lot more information than a Wikipedia page.”
Musk believes X is currently the best source of truth on Earth
“We want X to be the best source of truth on the planet by far. And I think it is”
Musk: Other social platforms reduced censorship after Twitter changed policy
“Once Twitter broke ranks, the others had to it became very obvious what the others were doing. And so they had to mitigate their censorship substantially as because of what Twitter did.”
Musk: UK has 2,000 to 3,000 people imprisoned for social media posts
“My understanding is that in the UK, there's something like two or 3000 people in prison for social media posts.”
Musk: ISS and Glass Lewis effectively control half of stock market votes
“Effectively, Glass Lewis and ISS control the vote of half the stock market.”
Musk: Refuses to build Tesla robot army without voting control protection
“Let's just say I'm not going to build a robot army if I can be easily kicked out by activist investors.”
Musk claims OpenAI released broken open-source models as a fig leaf
“They basically, they open sourced a broken, non-working version of their models as a fig leaf.”
Musk: Google co-founder Larry Page did not take AI safety seriously
“Larry Page was not you know, he was not taking AI's safety seriously.”
Musk: Gates claimed long-range electric semi-trucks impossible while Pepsi drove them
“He came to visit me at the Tesla Gigafactory in Austin, and was telling me that it's impossible to have a long-range, ah, semi-truck. And I was like, well, but we literally have them and you can drive them, and Pepsi is literally using them right now”
Musk: Climate change will not be a serious issue for at least 50 years
“The reality is that, in my opinion, is that we've got at least 50 years before it's a serious issue.”
Musk: Terrestrial fusion reactors are just science projects compared to solar energy
“If people want to have fun with reactors, you know that's fine. Have fun with reactors. But it's not a serious endeavor compared to the sun. You know, it's sort of a fun, it's a fun science project to make a nuclear reactor, but it's not it's not, it's just pe…”
Musk: Existing Tesla AI4 hardware will reach 2-3x human safety
“I am confident that the current chips AI, AI four chips that are in the cars will achieve self-driving safety that is at least two to three times that of human and maybe even X and the software that will be released for that is, is coming out over the next few…”
Musk predicts Tesla vehicles will feel sentient by the end of 2025
“Your car is going to feel like it is sentient by the end of the year.”
Musk predicts SpaceX will demonstrate full Starship reusability by 2026
“Unless we have some very major setbacks SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year catching both the booster and the ship and being able to deliver over a hundred tons to a useful orbit.”
Musk: Collective human intelligence will decline due to falling birth rates
“Now human, because of population declines and low birth rate, human intelligence is, is somewhat plateauing and will actually decline.”
Elon Musk: Tesla has done more for environment than all companies combined
“Tesla has done more to help the environment than all other companies combined.”
Musk: Old Twitter suppressed right-wing voices at 10x the rate of left-wing voices
“You know, the suspensions of Candidates, or interests, or voices, was really at least 10 times the rate of suppression of left-wing voices on, you know, on old Twitter.”
Musk: Third-party analysis shows hate speech views on X declined
“And this is despite, you know, showing repeated, ah, analysis of the system, including third-party analysis of the system, which actually showed that, ah, the number of views of hateful content, ah, declined.”
Musk: China's military strength around Taiwan will soon surpass the US
“There will come a point if, you know, probably not, in the not too distant future, where China's military strength in that region far except exceeds US military strength in that region.”
Musk argues Microsoft exercises more control over OpenAI than OpenAI does
“Really what you have is, I think, at the end of the day, Microsoft having more control than OpenAI. They have access to all the source code. They have access to all the weights of the you know, GPT-IV and future versions.”
Musk: Tesla FSD Beta miles are safer than unassisted human driving
“The miles we see driven under the FSD beta currently are much safer than the miles that are driven without it.”
Musk says he will vote Republican after historically voting for Democrats
“I have voted, voted overwhelmingly for Democrats historically overwhelmingly, like I, I'm not sure. I might never have voted for Republican, just to be clear. Now, now this election, I will.”
Musk: Bad Republican policy stems from corporate evil and religious zealotry
“On the Republican side there's, if you say like where there's something like not, not ideal happening, it's because of corporate evil and religious zealotry.”
Musk: Terrestrial nuclear fusion is probably uncompetitive by an order of magnitude
“A fusion earth fusion is not competitive economically. I think that is I would say it's probably not competitive economically by an order of magnitude.”
Elon Musk: Environment would be fine even if human population doubled
“The environment is going to be fine. They're going to be fine. Even if we doubled the size of the humans this is, and I know a lot about environmental stuff.”
Musk: California is now a land of taxes, over-regulation, and litigation
“California has gone from the land of opportunity to the land of sort of taxes, over-regulation and litigation.”
Musk: Biden administration lacks drive to execute compared to Trump team
“The Trump administration, leaving Trump aside, there were a lot of people in the administration who were effective at getting things done. So But this administration seems just to not have like the drive to just get it done. That, that that, that's why it's, t…”