The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 61 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sacks: Removing NATO expansion could have prevented Russia-Ukraine war
“And in fact, there was still an opportunity before this war to prevent the war by taking NATO expansion off the table.”
Sacks: Fauci's career would have ended if lab-leak role was exposed early
“Because Fauci had funded gain of function research at the Wuhan lab via EcoHealth Alliance. So he knew that if at the beginning of this pandemic, it turned out that he had been partially responsible For the creation of this virus that had now turned into a pan…”
Sacks: Ukraine war would not have happened with three specific US concessions
“If we had just done those three things, there would have been no war.”
Sacks: Closing NATO's door likely could have avoided the Russia-Ukraine war
“Because there's a good chance we could have avoided This disastrous war if we had just been willing to close NATO's door.”
Sacks: US State Department could have easily avoided Ukraine war
“This war was easily avoidable. I mean, the State Department could have avoided this war very easily.”
Sacks: A deal could have been negotiated to prevent the war in Ukraine
“I strongly believe we could have cut a deal on Ukraine a year ago to diffuse this whole situation before it turned into a war.”
Sacks says Capitol riot death toll would be identical for Black protestors
“Honestly, I think it would have been the same.”
Sacks: Mamdani would not have won NYC mayoral election without migrant vote
“Mamdani would not have won the mayoral election in New York if it had just been native-born New Yorkers voting. It was the mass migrant vote in New York that swung it to Mamdani.”
Sacks: Trump would have won nine more electoral votes without illegal alien census counting
“In the last election, President Trump would have won an additional nine electoral votes If we had an accurate accounting.”
Sacks: Palisades wouldn't have burned if Caruso were mayor
“Because I think it's pretty obvious that the Palisades wouldn't have burned to the ground if you had been the mayor, because you would have made sure that there was water in the fire hydrants.”
Sacks: Censorship of Hunter Biden laptop could have changed 2020 election
“There is a very plausible argument that the censorship of this story could have swung the results of the twenty-twenty election, okay?”
Sacks: US would be heading to World War III under Democrats
“I have no doubt that if the Democrats were still in office, we would be in an escalatory spiral right now with the destination being World War III.”
Sacks: Biden administration shot down early Russia-Ukraine peace deal
“We could have agreed to a deal in the first month. The Biden administration shot that down. That is why we have the war going in Ukraine.”
Sacks: Biden would be in a stronger position if he had closed the border
“Look, if Joe Biden had just shut down the border for the last four years, he would be in a materially different position.”
Sacks: Ukraine war could have been avoided by ruling out NATO expansion
“I think it's really clear that we could have avoided that war if we had taken NATO expansion off the table.”
Sacks: War in Ukraine was avoidable by halting NATO expansion
“They've chose to fight an optional proxy war of choice that was easily avoidable if they'd just taken NATO expansion off the table because they thought it would weaken Putin”
Sacks: The Russia-Ukraine war was easily avoidable through diplomacy
“My point is this, that this war was easily avoidable through the use of diplomacy.”
Sacks: Netflix would have dropped Dave Chappelle without his major deal
“They absolutely would have thrown Chappelle off and done what a lot of those employees wanted if they didn't have such a big deal with him, if he wasn't such a big deal.”
Sacks: Fauci's career would end if Wuhan ties leaked in Feb 2020
“If it had come out in February of 2020 that Fauci had funded the guy who funded the Wuhan lab and that's where the virus likely came from, his career would have been finished, ok?”
Sacks: The electric car industry would not exist without Elon Musk
“It's indisputable that Elon, the electric car industry would not exist without Elon”
Sacks: 'Defund the police' slogan cost Democrats control of Congress in 2020
“They introduced the slogan of defund the police, and it scared voters across the country into voting for Republicans in Congress, and it probably cost Joe Biden, not the presidency, but Congress”
Sacks: Trump might still be president if he endorsed masks earlier
“If he had just gotten on board with mass, it would have been a very easy thing to do. Politically, personally that could have made the margin of difference. He might still be president if he had gotten on board with mass about three months earlier.”
Sacks: Moderna vaccine would have released before election without trial delay
“If it weren't for those three weeks, Moderna's vaccine would have happened before Pfizer, and it would have come out about a week before the election.”
Sacks: Consistent moderation rules would have blocked Trump tax return coverage
“Because if they were to apply these standards evenly, they would have blocked the Trump tax returns for the exact same reason.”
Sacks: A Harris administration would have blocked data centers and enforced censorship
“Would have no data centers and they'd be using AI to censor us and they'd be promoting DEI values through AI that was in the Biden executive order.”
Sachs: Minnesota ICE chaos would cease if local authorities cooperated
“This would not be happening if they simply turned over the illegal aliens in their custody to ICE and Border Patrol, which is all that they're asking for.”
Sacks: Kamala Harris might have escalated the conflict with Iran as president
“Imagine if Kamala Harris were president, just do the counterfactual. Would she have had the situational awareness to realize that when the Iranians struck at our base in Qatar, that it was performative, that it was telegraphed, and that it was meant to basical…”
Sacks: Trump would have won by 20M votes if media were fair
“If the legacy media was fair, it would have been twenty million votes.”
Sacks: Trump would have won reelection in a landslide without COVID
“If it weren't for the black swan of COVID, he would have been reelected in a landslide.”
Sacks: 2023 banking crisis wouldn't happen if banks prioritized risk over ESG
“What I would say for sure is that if these banks have spent as much time on risk management as they did on ESG or on woke, then this crisis wouldn't happen.”
Sacks: A Greta Thunberg appearance would have drawn more coverage than derailment
“If Greta Thunberg was speaking in East Palestine, Ohio, about a point oh, one percent change in global warming that was going to happen in 10 years, it would have gotten more press coverage than this derailment, at least in the early days of it.”
Sacks: Fast could have preserved $30M by cutting burn earlier
“If they just slammed on the brakes three or four months ago, when we were talking on this pod about the coming downturn, they could still have thirty million dollars in the bank.”
Sacks: Affirming NATO exclusion for Ukraine might have defused conflict with Russia
“If we had been willing to basically affirm That we believe in Ukraine's sovereignty, but they are not a part of NATO. That might have diffused this conflict.”
Sacks: Jon Stewart's lab leak comments would have been censored on YouTube six months ago
“The things he was saying about the lab leak would not have been allowed on YouTube six months ago.”
Sacks: Apple employees would race back if Steve Jobs were alive
“If Steve were still around, those Apple employees would be racing back to the office because they'd be so excited about what they're working on.”
Sacks: The Miami tech migration was triggered by an SF homeless assault
“I think if hadn't gotten punched in the face by the homeless person, I think this all would have played out very differently.”
Sacks: Joe Biden would not be president without Jim Clyburn's endorsement
“Without him, Joe Biden would not be president.”
Sacks: Trump embracing masks would have won him the election decisively
“Had he just gone all in on a mass policy, I think this would not even be a close election.”
Sacks: U.S. lockdowns were unnecessary if universal mask policies were adopted
“I do think that the lockdowns went on too long. They, I mean, with, I think with twenty-twenty hindsight, we would say that the lockdowns weren't necessary if we had just gone all in on a mass policy.”
Sacks: Releasing Anthropic's Mythos without guardrails would have caused massive liability
“The truth is that if he had released Mythos with no guardrails in April, he would have exposed the company to massive legal exposure because thousands of companies would have gotten hacked, and it would have been very easy to say that was a foreseeable consequ…”
Sacks: Retained US-sold Bitcoin would be worth over $17 billion
“If we had held all of that, it would be worth just that the portion we sold would be worth over seventeen billion.”
Sacks: Garland's DOJ would have acted earlier if Gaetz allegations had merit
“If there was really something there, I think Merrick Garland's DOJ would have acted on it two or three years ago.”
Sacks: A 15-week abortion ballot measure in Florida would have passed
“If they had tried to go back to 15, you know, they probably could have gotten there. They probably could have gotten from 57 to 60.”
Sacks: Twitter could not restore free speech without firing staff
“Imagine if Elon had bought Twitter, but he wasn't allowed to fire anybody. Do you think he would have been able to restore free speech? Do you think he'd be able to restore innovation? No.”
Sacks: Microsoft would have expanded monopoly without 1990s DOJ intervention
“I think there was a substantial chance that if the government didn't step in, then Microsoft would have extended their Windows operating system monopoly.”
Sacks: Apple acquiring Tesla during the Model 3 rollout would've been smart
“That would have been a smart acquisition if they had done that.”
Sacks: Fed intervention in banking crisis likely prevented 2023 US recession
“It's very clear to me that there was a regional banking crisis underway, and the Fed stepping in, I think probably saved us from having a recession this year.”
Sacks: Current CMA rules would have stopped Yammer's UK office launch
“If you had told me at the time that that would subject our acquisition by Microsoft to the CMA over there, and that they would take some novel interpretation and go, hold up my deal, there's no way I would have wanted to open an office in the UK.”