The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 63 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Friedberg: Executives are passed over for leadership roles for being Jewish
“All I know is that there have been other conversations I've been privy to behind closed doors where senior people have been passed over because they are Jewish and because of the concerns of someone Jewish being viewed to be in a leadership position in an orga…”
Friedberg: Respected public figures privately told him "all Muslims need to go"
“And I've heard friends of mine in the last week Who have said awful things like all Muslims need to go. Well-known, well-respected public people have said this to me in private.”
Friedberg: I stayed silent on startup misrepresentation due to investor pressure
“I have with at least two companies in the last year. And, you know, I've kept my mouth shut because And by the way, I don't think that there's necessarily harm going on, but I know of misrepresentation, but the investors are like, look, we'd love to see these …”
Friedberg replaced entire software stack in 90 minutes using Claude agents
“Replaced a whole software stack and, like, a whole bunch of workload. 90 minutes on Claude ran this agentic system, built the whole thing, deployed it, and we got, we were all. On a Sunday night. On a Sunday night, 10 p.m., I was done at 11:30, I went to bed.”
Friedberg: All-In lost money on event and struggles to book speakers
“We can't get speakers to come on the show because of the association with the Trump administration. We lost money on that event in June that I spent 12 days of my life working on.”
Friedberg says acquaintances have been mentally broken by AI chatbot loops
“I've actually personally seen it with people I know that have got caught in these loops that get broken mentally.”
Friedberg: U.S. fiscal crisis requires tax increases alongside spending cuts
“I want more cuts, and given the fiscal situation, I'm actually, if someone showed up and said, hey, we're gonna increase taxes, I'd say, that's what we gotta do right now.”
Friedberg: TED talks have become overly focused on social justice
“I went to Ted for 12 years. I started going to Ted, I think, 2007, and I felt pretty disappointed over the last couple of years. And I actually spoke to the CEO of Ted and said, I'm not going to go anymore because so much of this, the talks became kind of soci…”
Friedberg: I have repeatedly considered quitting The All-In Podcast
“I cannot tell you how many times I've considered quitting the pod and not even showing up for this event”
Friedberg: I will not build another business in San Francisco
“Look, I've built businesses in San Francisco since 2006, and I will not build another business in San Francisco.”
David Friedberg admits betting US COVID-19 deaths would stay under 20,000
“I asked you guys, or you guys asked me when I thought we'd be back, and I was like, oh, April seventh, we'll be back to work, and I also had a bet going with you guys, and I said we're gonna have less than 20,000 deaths in the US.”
Friedberg admits personally buying unapproved COVID-19 antibody tests online
“There are a lot of people I know that have bought them on the internet. I have a bunch of them.”
Friedberg: The Production Board halts new investing to pivot entirely to Ohalo
“I'm not doing any new investing. Actually, a lot of folks moved into Ohalo or moved out to stop doing new investing, and then slowly we're kind of, as we have a liquidity event, we'll do a distribution, but the goal is for TPB To end up being a holding company…”
Friedberg: I tried to quit All-In every week early on
“I tried to quit, like, every week I wanted to quit, and I, Still contemplated a lot.”
Friedberg: Traditional Democratic voters in his network are switching to Republican
“I've seen like a lot of folks who I know who are traditionally Democratic voters, Democrat voters who are now Republican voters after what's happened over the last couple of years, surprisingly, shockingly.”
Friedberg's firm built in-house tool replacing $5,000 per seat SaaS vendor
“There's a vertical software provider. We're paying five grand per seat per year right now. And we look at that and we're like, okay, it's basically a data management tool for our particular vertical. Let's just go recreate that and did it very quickly, very lo…”
David Friedberg becomes full-time CEO of stealth gene-editing startup
“I'm going to go in full-time as CEO.”
Friedberg: Speakers declined All-In Summit over hosts' RFK support and insults
“That did happen, and specifically the fact that you- That's really open-minded. Yeah. And then there were other folks who were insulted by things that were said about them by people on the show.”
Friedberg invested over $30M into beverage startup Cana before returning customer funds
“A couple of weeks ago, we announced That we returned all the money to all our customers at Canna, which was this molecular beverage printer company I've been working on for a few years. I plowed north of thirty million dollars of our capital into building this…”
Friedberg: Early Google engineers volunteered on weekends to tag porn
“When I worked at Google, we used to have pizza weekends, where you would go into the office on the weekends, they give you free pizza, and everyone would tag, you know, you'd watch porn, and you would tag porn.”
David Friedberg reveals large personal investments in energy and defense stocks
“I recently made a big bet on energy stocks, defense stocks, and it used to be a gold.”
Friedberg: a16z offered a $40M term sheet when I sought $30M
“I got my series B term sheet in 2000 eight, I guess it was. And or 2009 and I had three venture firms. Andreessen was one of them that gave me a term sheet. And the interesting thing about at that time with Andreessen was they gave me a term sheet. I was tryin…”
Friedberg: My quinoa brand yields higher margins in retail stores than Amazon
“I can tell you my other company, which we sell, Quinoa, it's cheaper for us to sell Through retail stores than it is to sell on Amazon. We actually give up more margin selling on Amazon.”
Friedberg says his companies shifted to 90 percent Anthropic AI models
“If I look back six months ago, I think we were pretty heavy on cursor. And Gemini, and now I think we're probably 90% anthropic in just the last six months at my organization.”
Friedberg: The Production Board invested nearly $40M into Ohalo before initial results
“We put close to forty million dollars into this project before these results started to come in.”
Friedberg: Full Trump endorsement depends on progress with DOGE spending cuts
“My full-throated endorsement will come around when Doge actions are taken seriously and or the White House puts pressure on Congress to take action on spending and the budget.”
Friedberg: Created a Polymarket bet on Q3 US GDP falling below -5%
“I created a poly market on GDP. Annualized GDP growth in Q three of this year being below five, negative five percent.”
Friedberg would consider GLP-1 drugs for himself due to anti-inflammatory benefits
“I would consider it, and I would consider it for myself too, just for the anti-inflammatory effects.”
Friedberg says he will never donate to any political campaigns
“I don't give any money to politics ever. I never have, never will.”
Friedberg: Ohalo spent over $50M during five years in stealth
“This was stealth for five years. We put a ton of money into this business. So when you invest, like I mean, north of 50.”
Friedberg: Startup lending customer acquisition costs jumped from $4 to $60
“There was a lending company I was involved in early on as a main shareholder, and we were spending four dollars to acquire a customer making 12 bucks a month in gross profit. Fast forward 24 months, and it was costing north of 30 to 60 dollars to acquire a cus…”
Friedberg's firm invested tens of millions into stealth gene-editing startup
“We've put tens of millions of dollars of capital into this project over the last four years and been operating it in stealth.”
Cana lost two term sheets in 2022 as market conditions degraded
“We had two term sheets last year, both of which vaporized as the markets that degraded”
Friedberg: Portfolio companies moved ad spend from Google and Meta to Amazon
“I know this from experience on a couple boards. I'm at where companies stopped spending on Facebook and Google and just started spending exclusively on Amazon.”
Friedberg took Khosla's lower Series B valuation over a16z and Founders Fund
“I had three term sheets for my Series B. It was from Andreessen Horowitz, Khosla Ventures, and Founders Fund. And Founders Fund came in kind of last minute. But I went with Khosla, even though it's a lower valuation”
Friedberg: Bought energy stocks in late 2021 due to infrastructure underinvestment
“I mentioned to you guys at the end of last year that I made a bet on energy stocks, and the reason I made a bet on energy stocks is because some of the breakthroughs that we're seeing in decarbonization and renewable energy, Has driven a reduction in capital i…”
Friedberg reveals Cana, a startup developing an in-home beverage printer
“What we've been working on for three years at this point is a company called Canna, which is really about, you know printing beverages in your home. So you can use a single device to print iced coffee or iced tea. Cocktail, juice, wine, soda, et cetera all usi…”
Friedberg: Shorting 'Theranos 2.0' company worked out really well
“Oh, by the way, I did short it. It worked out really well.”
Friedberg: 60% of accounts at a former forex firm went to zero
“I was involved in a forex trading company and 60, 60% of accounts eventually ran out of money.”
Friedberg calls shorting the market in March 2020 his worst move
“Me and anyone else that fucking hedged or shorted the market or sold during the dip in March I learned the most valuable lesson I've learned in my investing career to date.”
Friedberg: Will invest in biodefense tech over application layer
“I will make my first series of bets less on the application and more on the protection. I think biodefense 30 years from now is going to be so important.”
Friedberg: Passed on plant-based meat companies due to flawed price assumptions
“I was wrong on this. I bet against these companies eight years ago. I didn't bet against them, but I chose not to bet for them because I made the argument consumers will only buy stuff that's cheaper and taste as good, and I was wrong.”
Friedberg: Purchased shares in LNG producer Cheniere Energy
“I just bought a LNG that Chenier company. I bought Chenier given all the craziness in the middle East”
Friedberg: Refuses to grant open-source AI tools access to email and messaging
“No, I don't want to give an open source tool access to all my emails and messaging apps.”