why aren't all 29 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Eli Lilly CEO: Tirzepatide surpassed Keytruda as best-selling drug ever
“And then terzepatide, which you asked how much money we're making, but in, actually in Q-two, we reported global sales, which surpassed Keytruda to becoming the best-selling drug in the world, actually the best-selling drug in the world of all time.”
Prediction Held up
Dave Ricks predicts competitor's GLP-1 dementia study likely won't be positive
“Our competitor is going to read out a study in a few months on dementia risk. It probably won't be positive. That's my guess, but it will probably be in the right direction.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ricks: Eli Lilly's GLP-1 drugs are undefeated in chronic disease trials
“So far in our studies, this category of medicine's undefeated. We've never had an unsuccessful study in measuring an outcome in a chronic disease.”
Assertion Supported
Ricks: Three-year Mounjaro trial showed 94% reduction in diabetes diagnoses
“We just read that study out with Manjaro, which showed that three years on our drug, 94% fewer new diagnosis of outright diabetes.”
Assertion Partly supported
Dave Ricks: Medicare rules prohibit covering weight-loss drugs unless patients have diabetes
“If you're say on Medicare, currently the rule of the federal government is they won't pay. For these medications. You have to get diabetes before you can get the drug.”
Assertion Supported
Under 5% of obese adults reach healthy weight via lifestyle changes alone
“Some studies show like less than five percent of people can reach a healthy body weight on diet and exercise once they're obese.”
Assertion Partly supported
Eli Lilly retains only one-third of gross drug prices after PBM cuts
“Two thirds of actually our gross price goes to PBMs and insurance companies. So of the gross price that's often quoted, the net for us is about a third of that.”
Prediction Held up
Dave Ricks says Eli Lilly's GLP-1 weight-loss pill launches in 2026
“Yeah, that's ours. Coming next year.”
Assertion Supported
Eli Lilly reduced out-of-pocket GLP-1 medication costs to $499
“We've led in reducing the out-of-pocket costs, but from, it was originally a thousand dollars, now it's four 99 from us.”
Assertion Contradicted
Dave Ricks: Annual biotech venture funding collapsed from $20B to $5B
“Peak got to about twenty billion in new checks a year into biotech. We're now about five.”
Assertion Partly supported
Dave Ricks: Half of public biotech companies trade at or below cash
“Half of biotech that's publicly traded is trading at or below cash.”
Assertion Supported
Epic study links GLP-1 drug use to remarkably lower clinical depression rates
“There's an interesting study done by Epic. You know, they're the big health record company. Which is retrospective and not tightly controlled, but it showed people on GLP-I drugs, incretins, had remarkably lower rates of new clinical depression diagnoses, whic…”
Assertion Partly supported
Dave Ricks: About 50% of employer-sponsored health plans cover GLP-1 weight-loss drugs
“Right now about 50% of the employer-sponsored insurance plans cover it.”
Assertion Contradicted
Dave Ricks: Walmart study shows GLP-1 users buy 30% fewer calories
“Last year Walmart did this sort of what's in the cart study for people in Ozempic or Manjaro and it showed They were buying about a third less calories. So that's a lot, but that's consistent with how the drugs work. But interesting also, fewer salty snack foo…”
Assertion Partly supported
Dave Ricks: 10 to 11 million Americans currently take GLP-1 drugs
“We only have 10 or eleven million Americans on these drugs.”
Assertion Partly supported
Ricks: Eli Lilly GLP-1 launched at 20% discount to Novo Nordisk
“We launched at a 20% discount to Nova's product, even though we have better efficacy data, and we've only cut the price since then.”
Assertion Partly supported
Eli Lilly spends $14.2 billion on R&D, equal to 25% of sales
“We spent 25% of sales on R&D. This year that'll be 14.2 billion dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Eli Lilly's Mounjaro demonstrated a 93% reduction in pre-diabetes conversion
“So we did that with Manjaro and showed a 93% reduction in conversion from pre-diabetes to diabetes.”
Assertion Supported
Eli Lilly and Genentech partnered to create the first-ever biotechnology product
“We had partnered with Genentech to do another first, which is create the first biotechnology product on planet earth, which was human insulin made in a bacterial cell.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ricks: Eli Lilly has 105 active tirzepatide clinical trials
“Currently, Lily has a 105 studies going with trisapatide in these other diseases.”
Assertion Supported
Eli Lilly oral GLP-1 shows efficacy matching high-dose semaglutide in trials
“In our hands, it, it's about as good as high dose semaglutide, and we, we're doing phase three right now. So that will start to read out next year.”
Assertion Supported
Dave Ricks: Eli Lilly gene therapy restored hearing in congenitally deaf children
“We've treated patients that have gone from like six, eight years of life, no hearing at all to now hearing.”
Assertion Supported
Dave Ricks: Eli Lilly has Phase 3 siRNA drug targeting Lp(a)
“We have a project in phase three right now that knocks down the production of something called LpA, which is a lipoprotein particle that's probably thought to be about 25% of the remnant reasons why we still have cardiovascular disease and there's no medicine …”
Assertion Contradicted
Ricks: Eli Lilly acquired 24 companies for $3B last year
“We buy companies last year, about two dozen, which was the most of any pharma company, but actually with some of the least capital deployed. So we're making I think we spent three billion dollars on 24 companies.”
Assertion Contradicted
Dave Ricks: Tech VCs invested $5B in AI drug discovery startups last year
“I think last year, five billion with a B went into new venture backed You know, that's what they like to call themselves. And that money is coming not so much from the traditional bio VC world, but from the tech world. Got a lot more to splash around, right?”
Prediction Held up
Eli Lilly's US expansion creates over 25,000 construction and manufacturing jobs
“So yeah, this is creating 20,000 construction jobs in this period, and ultimately five or 6000 manufacturing jobs.”
Assertion Supported
Ricks: Native GLP-1 has a half-life of minutes in medicine
“When you give it in its native form as a medicine, it has a half-life of like minutes.”
Assertion Supported
Ricks: GLP-1 glucose regulation triggers at lower doses than weight loss
“The glucose effect occurs at a lower dose than the weight loss effect.”
Assertion Supported
Ricks: Novo Nordisk's higher semaglutide dosing enabled obesity treatment
“So it was really Novo's insight that we could push up the dose of semaglutide that allowed the obesity Kind of threshold to be pushed.”