The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dave Ricks: Fully automated 'in silico' drug discovery is a long way off
“The idea that you're going to throw on, you know, turn a switch on a computer and it's going to think about something and event, you know, the next Prozac. I don't know. I think we're a long way from that day.”
Dave Ricks: Competitors cannot match our manufacturing scale without Chinese state backing
“And unless some Chinese state-owned enterprise gets in this business, it'll be very hard for others to build that out and follow.”
Dave Ricks predicts competitor's GLP-1 dementia study likely won't be positive
“Our competitor is going to read out a study in a few months on dementia risk. It probably won't be positive. That's my guess, but it will probably be in the right direction.”
Dave Ricks: Low-dose GLP-1s could eventually be used to extend healthspan
“I think we're going to get to a point. We're taking pretty low doses for most people, say over 60, 58. It's not a terrible idea. It may help you live longer.”
Dave Ricks expects steady-state GLP-1 net pricing around $3,000 to $4,000 annually
“Probably net pricing for us, you know, is going to be something like three, 4000 dollars a year in the steady state per person, but I think we'll create more value than that. We'll save the system more money than that per year per user.”
Dave Ricks says Eli Lilly's GLP-1 weight-loss pill launches in 2026
“Yeah, that's ours. Coming next year.”
Dave Ricks expects to launch a mental health GLP-1 in 3-4 years
“So we'll get that drug in three or four years if it works, and I think it could really change some of these terrible mental health conditions.”
Dave Ricks predicts the next major therapeutic surprise will be brain disease
“It's hard to predict that, but I would say probably a brain disease.”
Dave Ricks: India's obesity rate projected to reach 30% within 20 years
“India, I think is 11% of the population's obese, but projected to go as much as 30% in the next 20 years.”
Dave Ricks predicts Mounjaro revenues will drop to zero in the 2030s
“So, in 20, 30 something, Manjaro will go to zero.”