The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2075
Wright: Solar will never reach 10 percent of global energy
“He has a wildly exaggerated view of where solar and batteries will go. And I'd love, if we could make a bet 50 years out, I'll make a bet, solar never gets to 10% of global energy.”
Chris Wright Sep 8, 2025 ▶ 13:15 The Hidden Truth About the US Energy Grid: Subsidies, Demand & Rising Prices - Chris Wright
Prediction Held up
Wright: US will have new small modular reactors by July 2026
“We will have new next generation small modular reactors critical next year. Our goal is by July fourth, and I think we will beat that.”
Chris Wright Sep 8, 2025 ▶ 27:23 The Hidden Truth About the US Energy Grid: Subsidies, Demand & Rising Prices - Chris Wright
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Chris Wright: Natural gas will be the main source of new US electricity for AI
“Natural gas is what's going to power AI. Let's just be honest. What's going to be the main source of new electricity in the United States by far and away? Natural gas.”
Chris Wright Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 26:14 Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wright: Small modular reactors will take probably 10 years for market viability
“Ah, probably 10 years. 10 years. Because it's just a learning curve. With the small modular reactors, you gotta build up the supply chain, you gotta build up and build them in volume. The cost can come down dramatically.”
Chris Wright Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 29:23 Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
Prediction Held up
Wright: Three Gen-IV reactors will achieve criticality at Idaho lab by next summer
“We will have three next generation Gen-IV reactors critical in Idaho National Lab next summer.”
Chris Wright Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 28:47 Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
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