why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2075
Wright: Solar will never reach 10 percent of global energy
“He has a wildly exaggerated view of where solar and batteries will go. And I'd love, if we could make a bet 50 years out, I'll make a bet, solar never gets to 10% of global energy.”
Assertion Contradicted
Wright: All US batteries combined store five minutes of grid power
“If you take all the batteries in the United States, you could store five minutes of power.”
Assertion Partly supported
Chris Wright: Nuclear is statistically the safest form of energy production
“It's the safest form of energy production we've ever seen, for amount of energy it's produced and the amount of negative impacts, but people think it's the scariest and the most dangerous.”
Assertion Contradicted
Wright: Wood burning doubles the energy of wind, solar, and batteries
“The biggest component I didn't mention is traditional biomass. Burning wood. That is twice the total global energy of wind, solar, and batteries combined.”
Assertion Partly supported
Wright: Federal government subsidizes wind power at 4 cents per kWh
“The government pays that wind power producer four cents a kilowatt hour in a subsidy to pay it. That's straight from the federal government to the provider of that wind power.”
Assertion Partly supported
Chris Wright: IPCC projects only a 0.2% to 4% income drop by 2100
“Their estimates range from 0.2 to maybe three, four percent reduction in per capita income at the end of this century.”
Prediction Held up
Wright: US will have new small modular reactors by July 2026
“We will have new next generation small modular reactors critical next year. Our goal is by July fourth, and I think we will beat that.”
Assertion Contradicted
Wright: Wind, solar, and batteries provided 3% of PJM peak demand
“In PJM where we are right now, at peak demand this year, 97% of electricity, wind, solar, and batteries delivered three percent.”
Assertion Partly supported
Wright: Texas wind and solar supplied 8% of power at peak demand
“Wind and solar go on vacation. They're 35% of the capacity in Texas, eight percent of the delivered power at peak demand.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Chris Wright: Natural gas will be the main source of new US electricity for AI
“Natural gas is what's going to power AI. Let's just be honest. What's going to be the main source of new electricity in the United States by far and away? Natural gas.”
Assertion Supported
Chris Wright: China has over 20 nuclear reactors under construction
“They're building reactors faster and therefore cheaper, and they've got 20 plus under construction right now.”
Assertion Partly supported
Wright: Hydrocarbons provided 85% of global energy in both 1973 and 2024
“Yeah, so, so in 1973, and I use that year because that's the Yom Kippur War. That's when oil prices tripled. Later in the decade, they doubled again in the Iranian Revolution. So we said, we gotta get off oil and gas. So in 1973, oil, gas, and coal provided 85…”
Assertion Supported
Wright: U.S. retail electricity prices rose 25% under Biden administration
“We saw retail electricity prices rose 25% during the Biden administration. Wholesale electricity prices rose far more than that, over 50%.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wright: Small modular reactors will take probably 10 years for market viability
“Ah, probably 10 years. 10 years. Because it's just a learning curve. With the small modular reactors, you gotta build up the supply chain, you gotta build up and build them in volume. The cost can come down dramatically.”
Assertion Partly supported
Wright: China built 100 new coal plants last year
“It's by far and away the biggest source of electricity in China, and they built a hundred coal plants last year.”
Assertion Supported
Wright: Electricity accounts for only 20% of total global energy usage
“Electricity delivers 20% of global energy. Wrap the panel in a, wrap the whole planet in a solar panel, you got 20% of energy delivered.”
Prediction Held up
Wright: Three Gen-IV reactors will achieve criticality at Idaho lab by next summer
“We will have three next generation Gen-IV reactors critical in Idaho National Lab next summer.”
Assertion Partly supported
Wright: Two billion people burn wood indoors for cooking and heat
“Two billion people still cook their daily meals and heat their homes burning wood indoors.”