why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: All assets are coming on-chain for trading
“So anyway, we're long, I think that, yeah, the biggest trends are all assets are coming on chain for trading. Prediction markets are growing like crazy, and stablecoin payments are growing like crazy. Those are the, probably the three biggest trends in crypto …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Companies will eventually go public entirely on-chain
“I think eventually, like, you'll actually just be able to go public totally on-chain too.”
Prediction Held up
Armstrong: AI agents will use stablecoins and crypto wallets for payments
“AI agents, I think, are gonna use stablecoins and wallet, crypto wallets.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Armstrong: New Limit's first drug candidate likely enters clinical trials next year
“And the first drug candidate is probably going to go into clinical trials next year.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: AI job displacement will lead to net economic abundance
“I basically, I think if the AI plays out as we all think it will with robots and a lot of, there will be job displacement, but it means that we'll be in a world of more abundance and people are going to have jobs that there's like, they're streaming on video g…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Sub-cent, sub-second crypto transactions will trigger explosion of new use cases
“I, the metric I've been tracking internally, and I kind of push our team on, is we need every transaction to get under one cent in 1:02. If that, that feels like a threshold where we'd see an explosion of new use cases.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: On-chain capital formation will be massive for private companies
“But anyway, I think on-chain capital formation is going to be massive for private companies.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Armstrong: Crypto industry will move past FTX collapse around one year in
“Luckily, people turn the page on this thing, and they move on after about a year, and so I think we're coming up on that.”
Prediction Held up
Armstrong predicts regulators will adopt multi-category classification test for crypto
“We're going to eventually end up with some kind of a test that says, is this cryptocurrency a commodity, a security, a currency or something else like artwork?”