The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gerstner: 100% of 2021's thousand unicorns will face down rounds
“Remember we had a thousand unicorns at the end of 2021. And I've said a hundred percent of those are going to do a down round. And we're still in the early stages of that reset to occur.”
Gerstner: Anthropic generating $5B to $6B in a single month
“We're seeing companies like Anthropic at five or six billion dollars of revenue in a single month, which is extraordinary.”
Gerstner predicts up to 40 percent of 2022 unicorns will disappear
“Yeah, I'd say 30 to 40% are these companies that were valued over a billion dollars that don't have product market fit. They'll disappear.”
Gerstner: SpaceX IPO will trade at 40 to 50 times revenue
“This is why the SpaceX IPO is going to trade at 40 to 50 times revenue.”
Gerstner: Wall Street estimates Nvidia revenue growth flatlining under 10% CAGR from 2027-2029
“So if you look at that estimate, you know, starting in 20, 27, it basically flatlines 27 through 29 for Nvidia. Right? Less than 10% CAGR in terms of the growth for NVIDIA. They have by 20 29, them doing three hundred and sixty billion in revenue compared to t…”
Brad Gerstner predicts upcoming AI funding rounds will dwarf Mistral's €105M seed
“There are going to be a couple of monster rounds, I think announced next week, like that are going to make this one look like kids play.”
Gerstner: Prop 22 will become the regulatory model for New York and other states
“You're going to see if Prop. 22 passes, which I think it will tonight, it's going to be the architecture that New York and many other states follow. They're certainly not going to follow the disastrous AB five Example.”
Gerstner: Vast majority of AI compute offtake comes from 3 companies
“So the vast majority of the offtake commitments are coming from Anthropic, OpenAI, and NVIDIA. Right. When you hear about the hyperscalers building all of this, you know, this computer, they're building it out to sell to the people that we you know, that we ju…”
Gerstner: 1.5 million families claimed Invest America accounts in five days
“In fact, in the last, I think, five days, 1.5 million families and kids have claimed their account.”
Gerstner: $15 trillion of household net worth destroyed in five months
“We destroyed 15 trillion. You said this on pod 80. We destroyed 15 trillion of household net worth in the last five months.”
Gerstner: Democrats will not win control of the US Senate
“They're not going to get the Senate either.”
Gerstner: US Senate almost certain to stay Republican 51-49
“Is anybody prepared to, I, I'm getting a read from my analysts who are live blogging to me that the Senate is almost certain to go Republican at this point, with Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina going Republican. And Michigan and Montana both in real danger for…”
Gerstner: China has 100 nuclear fission plants under construction
“China has a hundred nuclear fission plants under construction, and we were sitting on our hands, so I think, if anything, they've helped jumpstart that conversation and get us moving faster, and I think that's good for all of us.”
Gerstner: Booking.com diluted shareholders 5% over 15 years vs 25% for Salesforce
“If you look over the last 15 years, if I'm an owner of Booking.com, I was only diluted by about five percent. If I was an owner of Salesforce or Expedia, I was diluted by about 25%.”
Gerstner: Warren Buffett has only bought two tech stocks: Apple and Snowflake
“What are the two technology companies Buffett bought in the public markets? Apple. Apple and Snowflake.”
Gerstner: Valuation gap between top and bottom software companies collapsed in 2021
“Dispersion collapsed between the best cohort and the worst cohort of software companies last year.”