why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Disclosure
Sternfels: McKinsey will grow client-facing consulting headcount 25% next year
“We're growing that body at 25% next year.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McKinsey cut non-client-facing staff 25% while increasing output 10% with AI
“At the same time though, about half our firm are non-client facing folks. We're down 25% in that group with 10% increase in output.”
Insight
Sternfels: University prestige matters much less in an AI-infused workforce
“It actually means that where you went to school matters a lot less.”
Disclosure
McKinsey employs 40,000 humans alongside 25,000 personalized AI agents
“40,025 thousand, that is the number of humans we have and the number of personalized agents we have as of last week in McKinsey.”
Insight
Sternfels: Corporate success today is less about strategy and more about organizational speed
“And I haven't met a CEO yet that isn't talking about how do I get my organization moving faster? It's quite frankly less about strategy. It's more about organizational speed.”
Insight
Sternfels: Scaling enterprise AI ROI in non-tech companies is harder than expected
“Realizing enterprise at scale value in non-technology companies is proving harder than people think.”
Assertion Contradicted
McKinsey: Employee skill ROI period dropped from 7 to 3.6 years
“We've done some work at our global institute that said for an employer, the return on investment that you give an employee in terms of skills has shrunk by about half over the last 30 years. It used to be about seven years return. It's less than four years, so…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sternfels: McKinsey will reach 1:1 human-to-AI-agent parity by end of 2026
“And I think we'll be a parody Before the end by the end of this year.”
Assertion Partly supported
Sternfels: Korea leads world in robots per worker, US is distant third
“Korea leads the way in robots per, per worker, right? They're at about one to 10 right now. Germany and China are tied at second. And the US then is a distant third.”
Disclosure
Sternfels: McKinsey mistakenly predicted in the 1980s that cell phones would fail
“One of the things, unfortunately, great failures that we had was we did a project and it was published a while ago for AT&T in the mid eighties that said these things were never going to take off. Cell phones were never going to really get going.”