The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Ackman aims to build Howard Hughes from $4B to $1T market cap
“The company's got like a four billion dollar market cap, and the goal is to build it into a trillion dollar thing over time.”
Bill Ackman Jun 3, 2026 ▶ 22:28 Bill Ackman: Here's What the Market is MISSING
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ackman: I know almost every S&P 500 CEO directly or once removed
“I know pretty much every CEO in the S&P, either directly or one person removed”
Bill Ackman Jun 3, 2026 ▶ 3:17 Bill Ackman: Here's What the Market is MISSING
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ackman: High-priced niche software companies face severe AI disruption risk
“I think there have been sort of monopolistic type profit taking off of customers. When someone had a kind of a niche software product, they're charging, you know, 30,000 a year or something like this. I think those companies are really at risk.”
Bill Ackman Jun 3, 2026 ▶ 7:14 Bill Ackman: Here's What the Market is MISSING
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Ackman: Amazon will have to become an even bigger SpaceX customer
“Even Amazon is going to have to become an even bigger customer because they're not, you know, Blue Origins, you know”
Bill Ackman Jun 3, 2026 ▶ 12:19 Bill Ackman: Here's What the Market is MISSING
Assertion Supported
Ackman: Pershing Square dollar grew 27 to 28 times over 22 years
“So if you invested a dollar in Pershing Square, you know, 22 years ago, that's, that became you know 20 I think, I should know this number. It's like 27 or 28 times net of all fees. Okay? Over, over 22 years.”
Bill Ackman Jun 3, 2026 ▶ 27:14 Bill Ackman: Here's What the Market is MISSING
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